NC-2: Etheridge down 46/41 (SUSA)

[Dgov]

This is a conservative outfit that ordered the poll, so we'll see what happens. It flipped in 1994 and then flipped back in 1996, so this wouldn't be a long term GOP hold.

I think you mean the neighboring NC-4 (which is still represented by the same guy actually)

Actually, strike that, this district flipped too.  Though the previous one was more competitive (Obama won the current iteration by a few points).  If the republicans can block a Democratic gerrymander, then they should be able to hold this seat pretty easily.

[Dgov]

The problem with your logic is that the Republicans have a good shot to win control of the North Carolina legislature in this election so they will control redistricting and likely redraw NC-02 to make it more Republican friendly should Ellmers win.

As another poster mentioned, it's not possible that they can actually turn this into a safe really Republican district. And, with North Carolina having Democratic Governor in Beverly Perdue, I doubt she would approve any huge Republican gerrymandering.

Well, it would presumably be an incumbent-protection map, and given how many Democratic incumbents you would have to protect (especially in the Raleigh area), this district will more or less have to be strongly Republican.  The only reason the current one is even competitive is that it includes some heavily Democratic parts of Fayette and Raleigh, which would presumably be removed.

I'll predict that if the Republicans take one of the state houses, the new NC-2 will have voted about 55% McCain.

[Dgov]

Neither Price or Miller need to be shored up. Price already represents the most Democratic majority white district in the South. Miller drew his own seat and can't really be made more Dem, add more of Raleigh you just have to shed parts of Raleigh or Greensboro. You can't shed the rural counties because they connect it. I don't see how to even draw a 55% McCain district with this one.

you take the Outer Raliegh areas, like th 4th district's part of Wake County, Johnson county, and move it back towards the 3rd district areas.  The 13th and 4th basically just take all of Durnham, Orange counties, most of Wake county, and the North-central counties.

Remember, this would be an incumbent-protectino plan, so there's no reason to leave the swing/republican areas in the 4th or 13th district while leaving some Democrat-leaning ones in the 2nd.