The problem with your logic is that the Republicans have a good shot to win control of the North Carolina legislature in this election so they will control redistricting and likely redraw NC-02 to make it more Republican friendly should Ellmers win.
As another poster mentioned, it's not possible that they can actually turn this into a safe really Republican district. And, with North Carolina having Democratic Governor in Beverly Perdue, I doubt she would approve any huge Republican gerrymandering.
