Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 28, 2014, 03:56:08 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2010 Elections
| | |-+  2010 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | | |-+  NV: Mason-Dixon: Angle (R) 49, Reid (D) 45
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: NV: Mason-Dixon: Angle (R) 49, Reid (D) 45  (Read 6590 times)
Sam Spade
SamSpade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27871


View Profile
« on: October 29, 2010, 10:52:45 am »
Ignore

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2010-10-28

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Logged
You kip if you want to...
change08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8785
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2010, 11:06:06 am »
Ignore

This one's over.
Logged

Guderian
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 576


View Profile
« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2010, 11:57:42 am »
Ignore

Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and CNN/Time all have it 49-45 now.
Logged
Capitan Zapp Brannigan
Addicted to Politics
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1093


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2010, 12:10:44 pm »
Ignore

I think Reid will lose in the end, but Nevada was the state where Obama under-polled the most compared to his election day results iirc.

Should be interesting to see what PPP has to say on this race and if it goes along with the rest of the polls.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2010, 12:12:40 pm by Capitan Zapp Brannigan »Logged
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10119
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2010, 12:13:08 pm »
Ignore

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9359
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2010, 12:17:11 pm »
Ignore

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.

FWIW, Jon Ralston says that nobody in Nevada believes all those polls that show Sandoval 20-30 points ahead. He says that most internal polling shows it a 10-12 point race.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
OC
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10119
United States


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2010, 12:29:54 pm »
Ignore

Regardless, Reid would have better off having Goodman beating Sandoval than having his son on the NV governors race.
Logged
Whacker77
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 763


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2010, 01:02:15 pm »
Ignore

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.

FWIW, Jon Ralston says that nobody in Nevada believes all those polls that show Sandoval 20-30 points ahead. He says that most internal polling shows it a 10-12 point race.

Could be right, but Jon Ralston hasn't exactly been pro-Republican lately.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13625


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2010, 01:26:21 pm »
Ignore

lol Reid isn't getting anything above 45%.
Logged
oakvale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9291
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2010, 01:27:04 pm »
Ignore

The only thing keeping my hopes up about this race is that Obama severly underpolled in Nevada in 2008.
Logged

Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13625


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2010, 01:28:33 pm »
Ignore

The only thing keeping my hopes up about this race is that Obama severly underpolled in Nevada in 2008.

This is a midterm year. Unless those voter suppression ads really pissed of Latino voters, I wouldn't be expecting any comeback for Reid.
Logged
Roma Caput Mundi
italian-boy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1310
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.52

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2010, 02:45:29 pm »
Ignore

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52514


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2010, 02:49:43 pm »
Ignore

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.
Logged


Never any doubt.
SvenssonRS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3603
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: -4.35

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2010, 03:22:15 pm »
Ignore

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.
Logged

In Wyoming, there are two seasons.
Winter and July.
xavier110
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 913
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.94, S: -7.83

P P P
View Profile
« Reply #14 on: October 29, 2010, 04:05:25 pm »
Ignore

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

But I thought polls were the work of the devil, and only the results mattered?
Logged
SvenssonRS
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3603
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: -4.35

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2010, 05:11:33 pm »
Ignore

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

But I thought polls were the work of the devil, and only the results mattered?

...

Roll Eyes
Logged

In Wyoming, there are two seasons.
Winter and July.
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32091
United States


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2010, 05:29:22 pm »
Ignore

I think this one is over. 
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
oakvale
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9291
Ireland, Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2010, 05:43:11 pm »
Ignore

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

But I thought polls were the work of the devil, and only the results mattered?

...

Roll Eyes

Well, uh, that's what you said. Not that I don't think Angle's leading, but try to be a little consistent.
Logged

Sbane
sbane
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13625


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2010, 05:58:24 pm »
Ignore

He just doesn't like polls that don't show what he wants them to show. So he is consistent.
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6853


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2010, 06:35:22 pm »
Ignore

Don't worry, Jon Ralston says all the polls are wrong and it's really going to be Reid winning.
Logged
-
KS21
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1911
Political Matrix
E: -0.97, S: -3.39

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2010, 08:16:53 pm »
Ignore

Bye, Harry.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9359
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2010, 10:45:19 am »
Ignore

I don't know if there is a more relevant topic where to put that information.

http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/VoterRequests/EVMB/MB10G_PartyDistTurnout.pdf

In Clark County, 47% of absentee ballots cast by Democrats and 38% by Republicans. Similar to county's registration numbers, so apparently no turnout gap there.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8190


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2010, 12:59:21 pm »
Ignore

I don't know if there is a more relevant topic where to put that information.

http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/VoterRequests/EVMB/MB10G_PartyDistTurnout.pdf

In Clark County, 47% of absentee ballots cast by Democrats and 38% by Republicans. Similar to county's registration numbers, so apparently no turnout gap there.

Clark County early voting skewed a lot more heavily Democratic in 2008 than the election day vote.  Reid needs to build a huge lead in the Clark County early vote to have any shot at winning.  What's in so far probably isn't good enough.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9359
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -5.22

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2010, 01:15:04 pm »
Ignore

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/

Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.

The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.
Logged

Bob Findley: "You're a real dyed-in-the-wool son-of-a-bitch. Anyone ever told you that?"
Steve Everett: "Just close friends and family,"

Clint Eastwood's "True Crime", 1999.
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8190


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2010, 01:28:32 pm »
Ignore

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/

Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.

The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.


The early voting sites are not uniformly sited.  Outlying areas of Clark County only get a limited chance at early voting in their towns - a day or two - which just happened to coincide with days when Republicans lead the Clark early vote tally.   It is not surprising that Republican early voting turnout falls when those sites are yanked.

Site selection matters.  Early voting tends to be biased toward urban areas, which skew Democratic.  Access to the polls is more uniform on election day.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines