NV: Mason-Dixon: Angle (R) 49, Reid (D) 45

[Sam Spade]

New Poll: Nevada Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2010-10-28

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[You kip if you want to...]

This one's over.

[Guderian]

Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and CNN/Time all have it 49-45 now.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I think Reid will lose in the end, but Nevada was the state where Obama under-polled the most compared to his election day results iirc.

Should be interesting to see what PPP has to say on this race and if it goes along with the rest of the polls.

[OC]

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.

FWIW, Jon Ralston says that nobody in Nevada believes all those polls that show Sandoval 20-30 points ahead. He says that most internal polling shows it a 10-12 point race.

[OC]

Regardless, Reid would have better off having Goodman beating Sandoval than having his son on the NV governors race.

[Whacker77]

Unfortunately for Reid Sr., he has his son on the ballot and he is gonna get blowned out by Sandoval, so in the end it will affect both Reids.

FWIW, Jon Ralston says that nobody in Nevada believes all those polls that show Sandoval 20-30 points ahead. He says that most internal polling shows it a 10-12 point race.

Could be right, but Jon Ralston hasn't exactly been pro-Republican lately.

[Senator Sbane]

lol Reid isn't getting anything above 45%.

[oakvale]

The only thing keeping my hopes up about this race is that Obama severly underpolled in Nevada in 2008.

[Senator Sbane]

The only thing keeping my hopes up about this race is that Obama severly underpolled in Nevada in 2008.

This is a midterm year. Unless those voter suppression ads really pissed of Latino voters, I wouldn't be expecting any comeback for Reid.

[Roma Caput Mundi]

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

[Keystone Phil]

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

[SvenssonRS]

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

[xavier110]

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

But I thought polls were the work of the devil, and only the results mattered?

[SvenssonRS]

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

But I thought polls were the work of the devil, and only the results mattered?

...

[J. J.]

I think this one is over. 

[oakvale]

It's amazing how the gap has been constant for the last 7-8 polls.

Not just the gap but the exact percentage of support each candidate is receiving remains constant. Weird.

Guess we know what the victory margin's going to look like.

But I thought polls were the work of the devil, and only the results mattered?

...

Well, uh, that's what you said. Not that I don't think Angle's leading, but try to be a little consistent.

[Senator Sbane]

He just doesn't like polls that don't show what he wants them to show. So he is consistent.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Don't worry, Jon Ralston says all the polls are wrong and it's really going to be Reid winning.

[-]

Bye, Harry.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't know if there is a more relevant topic where to put that information.

http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/VoterRequests/EVMB/MB10G_PartyDistTurnout.pdf

In Clark County, 47% of absentee ballots cast by Democrats and 38% by Republicans. Similar to county's registration numbers, so apparently no turnout gap there.

[cinyc]

I don't know if there is a more relevant topic where to put that information.

http://redrock.co.clark.nv.us/VoterRequests/EVMB/MB10G_PartyDistTurnout.pdf

In Clark County, 47% of absentee ballots cast by Democrats and 38% by Republicans. Similar to county's registration numbers, so apparently no turnout gap there.

Clark County early voting skewed a lot more heavily Democratic in 2008 than the election day vote.  Reid needs to build a huge lead in the Clark County early vote to have any shot at winning.  What's in so far probably isn't good enough.

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/

Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.

The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.

[cinyc]

http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/

Republicans lost ground to the Democrats in the urban counties on the largest and last day of early voting Friday, surely giving Democrats hope that a surge to blunt the GOP momentum could carry over into Election Day.

The GOP still maintained a lead relative to registration in urban Nevada, but Democrats kept it to under 4 percent. When the rural data is in, as well as Washoe absentees, the statewide turnout advantage for the GOP is expected to be closer to 3 percent. In 2006, after Election Day, the GOP had a 6 percent turnout advantage, but the Democrats did not have a 5 percent edge in statewide registration, as they do now. And upwards of 65 percent of the overall turnout already has occurred.

The early voting sites are not uniformly sited.  Outlying areas of Clark County only get a limited chance at early voting in their towns - a day or two - which just happened to coincide with days when Republicans lead the Clark early vote tally.   It is not surprising that Republican early voting turnout falls when those sites are yanked.

Site selection matters.  Early voting tends to be biased toward urban areas, which skew Democratic.  Access to the polls is more uniform on election day.