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| | | |-+  NV: Mason-Dixon: Angle (R) 49, Reid (D) 45
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Author Topic: NV: Mason-Dixon: Angle (R) 49, Reid (D) 45  (Read 6296 times)
TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2010, 01:35:59 pm »
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Remember how well M-D did in 2008?
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2010, 07:49:11 am »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2010, 08:40:38 pm »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2010, 08:42:09 pm »
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"Senator Angle"

I like the ring of that.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2010, 03:01:38 am »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.
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« Reply #30 on: November 02, 2010, 01:16:28 pm »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.

Do you think Reid would have escaped a tough race in a different environment? No. He has 35% approval ratings and has since 2007. The only possible way for read to escape would be for Angle to not have a chance in a less Republican environment. Maybe, maybe not. There is nothing "delusional" about what I said, it is opinionated analysis. The GOP was going to take down Reid. Maybe not the NV GOP bought, paid off, bribed, prosecuted by the Reid machine into supporting him. The national GOP and conservative groups were going to take him out, or try their best. I don't like Angle, I didn't support her in the primary. The only reason I am willing to support her is to get rid of Reid. The only reason Angle has a even a chance in hell is because they are sick and tired of Reid.

Does anyone here honestly, think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

When I see personal opinion based analysis that is rational being labeled as "delusional", I take that as a personal insult and if you insist on continuing that behavior towards me, I will be sure to report every such instance of that. Learn to treat people who have a different opinion with respect, not with arrogant rank personal insults.

Does anyone here think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case
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« Reply #31 on: November 02, 2010, 02:16:28 pm »
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Reid has been a mediocre senator and a terrible majority leader, and I'd almost be happy to see him lose if he were running against anybody but Angle. I doubt Angle could win against anybody but Reid, and if Reid were running against anybody but Angle, he would be headed towards a loss of Santorum or Blanche Lincoln proportions.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #32 on: November 02, 2010, 03:54:10 pm »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.

Do you think Reid would have escaped a tough race in a different environment? No. He has 35% approval ratings and has since 2007. The only possible way for read to escape would be for Angle to not have a chance in a less Republican environment. Maybe, maybe not. There is nothing "delusional" about what I said, it is opinionated analysis. The GOP was going to take down Reid. Maybe not the NV GOP bought, paid off, bribed, prosecuted by the Reid machine into supporting him. The national GOP and conservative groups were going to take him out, or try their best. I don't like Angle, I didn't support her in the primary. The only reason I am willing to support her is to get rid of Reid. The only reason Angle has a even a chance in hell is because they are sick and tired of Reid.

Does anyone here honestly, think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

When I see personal opinion based analysis that is rational being labeled as "delusional", I take that as a personal insult and if you insist on continuing that behavior towards me, I will be sure to report every such instance of that. Learn to treat people who have a different opinion with respect, not with arrogant rank personal insults.

Does anyone here think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

Saying that Reid will lose because he said that the Iraq War was lost IS delusional. His status as majority leader would make him Republicans top target anyway.
Just look what happened to Tom Daschle, hardly a fire-breathing liberal or an extremely partisan leader.
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« Reply #33 on: November 02, 2010, 04:02:42 pm »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.

Do you think Reid would have escaped a tough race in a different environment? No. He has 35% approval ratings and has since 2007. The only possible way for read to escape would be for Angle to not have a chance in a less Republican environment. Maybe, maybe not. There is nothing "delusional" about what I said, it is opinionated analysis. The GOP was going to take down Reid. Maybe not the NV GOP bought, paid off, bribed, prosecuted by the Reid machine into supporting him. The national GOP and conservative groups were going to take him out, or try their best. I don't like Angle, I didn't support her in the primary. The only reason I am willing to support her is to get rid of Reid. The only reason Angle has a even a chance in hell is because they are sick and tired of Reid.

Does anyone here honestly, think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

When I see personal opinion based analysis that is rational being labeled as "delusional", I take that as a personal insult and if you insist on continuing that behavior towards me, I will be sure to report every such instance of that. Learn to treat people who have a different opinion with respect, not with arrogant rank personal insults.

Does anyone here think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

Saying that Reid will lose because he said that the Iraq War was lost IS delusional. His status as majority leader would make him Republicans top target anyway.
Just look what happened to Tom Daschle, hardly a fire-breathing liberal or an extremely partisan leader.

I don't ever recall saying that he would loose because he said the Iraq war was lost. I said, it guarranteed he would be challenged if that wasn't guarrenteed already (whoops, left the if part out). I still didn't say it was the only factor leading to him being "challenged" like the devil.

Why most you 1) seek desperately to misinterpret a situation or read it as you want it to mean so that you can 2) insult someone.

Stop being so bitter and arrogant and loosen up.
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« Reply #34 on: November 02, 2010, 04:45:27 pm »
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My one fleeting bit of hope is that a combination of Reid's top notch GOTV effort, plus an unusually high NOTA vote that would otherwise go 90+% against the incumbent might give Harry a chance at another .10 % victory like in 98.

Admittedly, the chances of that are still slim. Tongue

"Senator Angle". Geez Republicans are willing to swallow a lot to return to mid-2008. Angry

The minute Reid uttered his famous line about the war is lost in 2007, the GOP was guarranteed to go after him with no restraint. Reid knew this as early as 2008 and hence his and his machines actions since 2008.

Its about getting back at Reid more then anything.

You're delusional.

Do you think Reid would have escaped a tough race in a different environment? No. He has 35% approval ratings and has since 2007. The only possible way for read to escape would be for Angle to not have a chance in a less Republican environment. Maybe, maybe not. There is nothing "delusional" about what I said, it is opinionated analysis. The GOP was going to take down Reid. Maybe not the NV GOP bought, paid off, bribed, prosecuted by the Reid machine into supporting him. The national GOP and conservative groups were going to take him out, or try their best. I don't like Angle, I didn't support her in the primary. The only reason I am willing to support her is to get rid of Reid. The only reason Angle has a even a chance in hell is because they are sick and tired of Reid.

Does anyone here honestly, think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

When I see personal opinion based analysis that is rational being labeled as "delusional", I take that as a personal insult and if you insist on continuing that behavior towards me, I will be sure to report every such instance of that. Learn to treat people who have a different opinion with respect, not with arrogant rank personal insults.

Does anyone here think that Angle would be winning against Goodman, or Berkley or some random Dem state senator? I rest my case

Saying that Reid will lose because he said that the Iraq War was lost IS delusional. His status as majority leader would make him Republicans top target anyway.
Just look what happened to Tom Daschle, hardly a fire-breathing liberal or an extremely partisan leader.

I don't ever recall saying that he would loose because he said the Iraq war was lost. I said, it guarranteed he would be challenged if that wasn't guarrenteed already (whoops, left the if part out). I still didn't say it was the only factor leading to him being "challenged" like the devil.

Why most you 1) seek desperately to misinterpret a situation or read it as you want it to mean so that you can 2) insult someone.

Stop being so bitter and arrogant and loosen up.

Mr. Pot, meet Mr. Kettle. Grin
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #35 on: November 02, 2010, 11:57:00 pm »
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Remember how well M-D did in 2008?
Das right folks.
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« Reply #36 on: November 02, 2010, 11:58:57 pm »
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So, yeah.
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« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2010, 12:10:28 am »
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Like I said in the other thread, second cycle in a row that the pollsters have failed in Nevada.
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« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2010, 12:28:26 am »
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Whoops.


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« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2010, 12:31:57 am »
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Like I said in the other thread, second cycle in a row that the pollsters have failed in Nevada.

Interestingly, Suffolk always has one of the best results. In 2008 and this year.
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« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2010, 02:12:28 am »
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Like I said in the other thread, second cycle in a row that the pollsters have failed in Nevada.

And Jon Ralston is again vindicated.
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« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2010, 09:41:48 am »
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Would Reid have won without the "power outage"?
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« Reply #42 on: November 03, 2010, 09:43:24 am »
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lol conspiracy theory
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« Reply #43 on: November 03, 2010, 05:22:12 pm »
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The mark was missed on this one, very much. I thought that Reid would squeeze out a very narrow victory, with the help of None of These. Him getting to 50% was quite surprising.
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« Reply #44 on: November 03, 2010, 11:32:10 pm »
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This was certainly interesting to see and I would equate it to three things.

1. Nevada has a history of being difficult to poll accurately.


2. There were a lot of people that despised Reid, but just couldn't vote for Angle or had a difficult time voting for Angle and so they split between third party, NOTA, Angle and Reid. And due to number one, it was hard to see for sure this was occuring to extent that it was.

3. It all comes down to bringing your a-game to the ground game. You can't win without getting your people out and conversally you can win even when everyone says its impossible by getting your people out.

The GOP had to run an outsider, and they had to rely on outside and grassroots money. Because the insider NV GOP had been bought, prosecuted, scared, defeated or otherwise prevent from being able to challenge Reid thus depriving the establishment of a top tier candidate, which Lowden wasn't. They had to rely on the outside and grassroots money because the gaming and mining interests are all in Reid's corner.

That doesn't mean that Angle was the best "outsider" candidate. I think that Tarkanian had the best potential had he been able to position himself to get Tea Party support or atlest prevent Angle from becoming "the" tea party candidate, he could have been the one to benefit from Lowden's collapse and pull off a win. He did win the early vote in Clark in the NV primary so he did have some organization and influence due to name recognition in that country which would have been a boon, could he have built on it, in the general against Reid. However, Tark wasn't a Johnson or a Rubio and so he went no where in the primary. 
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« Reply #45 on: November 03, 2010, 11:53:06 pm »
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NOTA actually got an abnormally low percent of the vote this time, FWIW.
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« Reply #46 on: November 05, 2010, 10:48:45 am »
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NOTA actually got an abnormally low percent of the vote this time, FWIW.

Even if it didn't, NOTA wouldn't have mattered in the election because Reid got an absolute majority of the vote.
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« Reply #47 on: November 05, 2010, 11:12:29 am »
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Not news: Every pollster sucks at polling Nevada, and for whatever reason Democrats there consistently underpoll. (Anyone have a good explanation as to why? Maybe underestimating Hispanic turnout?)

Ironically, this election was Harry Reid's widest victory margin ever.
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« Reply #48 on: November 05, 2010, 11:15:40 am »
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Ironically, this election was Harry Reid's widest victory margin ever.

He romped in 2004.
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« Reply #49 on: November 05, 2010, 07:56:28 pm »
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Ironically, this election was Harry Reid's widest victory margin ever.

He romped in 2004.

1986: Reid by 5.5  50%-44.5%
1992: Reid by 11 51%-40%
1998: Reid by .1% 47.9%-47.8%
2004: Reid by 26 61%-35%

Its probably his second or third closest.
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