CT-04 & CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Republicans with Slight Leads

[cinyc]

CT-04 & CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman River Group:
CT-04
Debicella (R) - 48.0%
Himes (D)(i)  - 46.1%
Unsure         -    4.6%
Neither         -    1.4%
October 24-26; 571 LV; MoE +/- 4.1 percent.

CT-05
Caligiuri (R)    - 46.9%
Murphy (D)(i)  - 45.5%
Unsure          -    3.7%
Neither          -    3.9%
October 24-26; 595 LV; MoE +/- 4.0 percent

[cinyc]

Neat.

It sounds like CT Capitol Report might to do a daily tracking poll for at least CT-05:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

CD Crosstabs here.

[cinyc]

Wow. Maybe something is going on in New England. And then there was that weird poll that the Jewish CD in Brooklyn is tight. Maybe Orthodox Jewish support for Dems has just totally collapsed or something out of anger at Obama over Israel issues, etc.

DCCC is spending money in CT-5, so something is certainly happening there of some sort.

Plus, Obama is going to visit Bridgeport in CT-04 tomorrow to gin up minority turnout in the park city.

[cinyc]

If the Republicans do wind up winning both, the Democrats can basically force them into 1 district after 2012.  It will be interesting to see where thy put Bridgeport, given that without that city CT-4 becomes a Republican-leaning district.

As AndrewCT said, I don't see how they can split CT-04.  It's basically the Connecticut Panhandle by the New York border along the LI Sound Shore.   Moving Northward along the CT border instead of into Bridgeport probably wouldn't change the makeup of the two districts much.  I suppose they could split off the more minority parts of Stamford and put them into a district with Bridgeport and into New Haven, but that would probably make CT-03 more competitive.  Plus, CT usually doesn't split towns without good reason.

[cinyc]

No, I'm telling you, you can draw a Congressional District completely inside Fairfield county without including Bridgeport.  The county has a population of 882,000 according to the 2000 census, and Bridgeport has a population of only 137,000 People.  882,000-137,000 = 745,000 which is more than enough for it's own Congressional District if you drop about 50,000 for connecting territory to the East of Bridgeport.

The only concern would be that move makes CT-5 more Democratic, but you can trade out the Democratic parts of Hartford county for more Conservative parts of Middlesex county.

And the point of that would be?  You're making one of the most Democratic-leaning CT districts, CT-03, more Democratic, which means the other CT CDs would become more Republican.

The way the CDs split Fairfield County right now makes sense.  CT-04 runs primarily along the I-95/Merritt/New Haven Line corridor, which has strong ties to NYC.  CT-05 along the I-84 corridor and points north, which have less strong ties to NYC.

[cinyc]

If the Republicans do wind up winning both, the Democrats can basically force them into 1 district after 2012.  It will be interesting to see where thy put Bridgeport, given that without that city CT-4 becomes a Republican-leaning district.

As AndrewCT said, I don't see how they can split CT-04.  It's basically the Connecticut Panhandle by the New York border along the LI Sound Shore.   Moving Northward along the CT border instead of into Bridgeport probably wouldn't change the makeup of the two districts much.  I suppose they could split off the more minority parts of Stamford and put them into a district with Bridgeport and into New Haven, but that would probably make CT-03 more competitive.  Plus, CT usually doesn't split towns without good reason.

Unlike MA, CT does split towns to achieve exact population equality. For instance, Shelton is split between CD 3 and 4. County lines aren't particularly respected either, since CD 4 jumps the line to include Oxford, when Shelton could have been left intact and a small piece of Stratford used to get equality.

MA splits towns in some instances, too.  There are at least 4 towns that are split between CDs.  From memory, Fall River is split between Barney Frank's CD and another (MA-10? or MA-3?).  And of course Boston is split.

When I said CT generally respects town lines, I meant there aren't many towns in a line that are split for no good reason - like you'd have to do to create a lower Greenwich/Stamford/all Bridgeport vs. Upper Greenwich/Stamford/no Bridgeport district.

Counties are pretty much irrelevant in Connecticut.  There is no county government