CT-04 & CT-05: CT Capitol Report/Merriman - Republicans with Slight Leads

[Dgov]

Wow. Maybe something is going on in New England. And then there was that weird poll that the Jewish CD in Brooklyn is tight. Maybe Orthodox Jewish support for Dems has just totally collapsed or something out of anger at Obama over Israel issues, etc.

Affluent white areas seem to be swinging hard against Democrats, despite the cultural problems they have with the GOP.

Taxes and economic issues will always trump any other issues, cultural ones especially.

True. I do remember, though, that after the 2008 election some were saying the GOP had lost these areas for a long time because they were culturally alien to them.

These areas will still remain more Democratic than they were 20-30 years ago. These areas are basically swing areas, so it's not surprising Republicans are competitive there this year.

If the Republicans do wind up winning both, the Democrats can basically force them into 1 district after 2012.  It will be interesting to see where thy put Bridgeport, given that without that city CT-4 becomes a Republican-leaning district.

[Dgov]

If the Republicans do wind up winning both, the Democrats can basically force them into 1 district after 2012.  It will be interesting to see where thy put Bridgeport, given that without that city CT-4 becomes a Republican-leaning district.

As AndrewCT said, I don't see how they can split CT-04.  It's basically the Connecticut Panhandle by the New York border along the LI Sound Shore.   Moving Northward along the CT border instead of into Bridgeport probably wouldn't change the makeup of the two districts much.  I suppose they could split off the more minority parts of Stamford and put them into a district with Bridgeport and into New Haven, but that would probably make CT-03 more competitive.  Plus, CT usually doesn't split towns without good reason.

No, you can draw a district that is all of Fairfield county except Bridgeport and the areas immediately east of it.  It would actually be better looking than the current map, to be honest.

[Dgov]

If the Republicans do wind up winning both, the Democrats can basically force them into 1 district after 2012.  It will be interesting to see where thy put Bridgeport, given that without that city CT-4 becomes a Republican-leaning district.

As AndrewCT said, I don't see how they can split CT-04.  It's basically the Connecticut Panhandle by the New York border along the LI Sound Shore.   Moving Northward along the CT border instead of into Bridgeport probably wouldn't change the makeup of the two districts much.  I suppose they could split off the more minority parts of Stamford and put them into a district with Bridgeport and into New Haven, but that would probably make CT-03 more competitive.  Plus, CT usually doesn't split towns without good reason.

No, you can draw a district that is all of Fairfield county except Bridgeport and the areas immediately east of it.  It would actually be better looking than the current map, to be honest.

Again, you wouldnt be able to do it. The only thing you could do to Bridgeport is to put it into the CT-3, but than you would be lumping Bridgeport and New Haven into the same CD, leaving the 4th with significantly less people. You would have to take Danbury and add it to the 4th, and even then it wouldnt make up for the loss. It would take MASSIVE population growth in Shelton, Westport, Weston, Wilton and towns like that to make Bridgeport a central CD, and put Norwalk, Greenwich, and Stamford in the same.

No, I'm telling you, you can draw a Congressional District completely inside Fairfield county without including Bridgeport.  The county has a population of 882,000 according to the 2000 census, and Bridgeport has a population of only 137,000 People.  882,000-137,000 = 745,000 which is more than enough for it's own Congressional District if you drop about 50,000 for connecting territory to the East of Bridgeport.

The only concern would be that move makes CT-5 more Democratic, but you can trade out the Democratic parts of Hartford county for more Conservative parts of Middlesex county.