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Author Topic: Maine Republicans Closing Fast  (Read 8888 times)
SamInTheSouth
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« on: October 29, 2010, 06:00:03 pm »
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Critical Insights has Republican Dean Scontras up four points over Chellie Pingree in ME-01.

  • Scontras - 45%
  • Pingree - 41%

Just a week ago another poll had Scontras just five points behind Pingree.


In ME-02 Jason Levesque is within four points of Mike Michaud according to Critical Insights

  • Mike Michaud - 44%
  • Jason Levesque - 40%

How strange would that be to have all Republican delegation to Congress?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1 on: October 29, 2010, 06:34:12 pm »
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Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: October 29, 2010, 06:35:59 pm »
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Recent polls have put Republicans in front or within striking distance in ME-01, ME-02, NH-01, NH-02, MA-04, MA-10, RI-01, CT-04 and CT-05.  And who knows what's going on in some of the other under-the-radar MA districts.

New England is shaping up to be a potential Democratic bloodbath.  Not bad for a region with zero Republican Congressmen right now.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: October 29, 2010, 06:37:28 pm »
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Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure.

Maine is one of those 2 CD states where pollsters split 500-600 statewide LV poll samples to provide CD-level polling, leading to high MoEs - usually around 6%.  That almost always leads to higher variation than usual.
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« Reply #4 on: October 29, 2010, 07:23:50 pm »
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I do think that the swings do look a bit odd, since swings like that don't generally occur with an a matter of weeks. I would take these with a grain of salt.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2010, 07:29:29 pm by Estes Kefauver »Logged

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Zarn
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« Reply #5 on: October 29, 2010, 07:27:13 pm »
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The New England and NJ swings seem to reflect what happened with Brown and Coakley. Trending GOP out of nowhere, it seems.

I don't know how NY and PA been trending.
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2010, 08:01:19 pm »
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Yeah, so now it's a 19-point swing over two weeks in ME-01. Sure.

Happened with Brown/Coakley.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #7 on: October 29, 2010, 08:26:17 pm »
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What the hell is this sh!#?

LePage coattails!?!?!
« Last Edit: October 29, 2010, 08:31:55 pm by ajc0918 »Logged

Zarn
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« Reply #8 on: October 29, 2010, 08:59:30 pm »
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LePage coattails!?!?!

Everybody loves zee French.
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nhmagic
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« Reply #9 on: October 29, 2010, 09:22:19 pm »
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Its not a fluke poll, though it may overestimate Scontras a bit.  The district is D+8, but very contrarian.  I suspect they're about even. Pingree has been getting hit hard for a lot of things including the jet trips with her husband and in an eco-friendly district, those predisposed to her might decide just to not vote instead of pull the lever for her.  She's also a physical manifestation of a "rich liberal" when Mainers are unemployed.  That sort of style doesn't play well here - I work in her district, particularly in her stomping grounds - not hearing a lot of good things from people who voted for her the last time.

As for Michaud, I think hes good to go, but he still is in a D+3 district and could be swept away.  I highly doubt it.  Michaud's got a huge presence name wise and is pretty well liked. 
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #10 on: October 29, 2010, 09:26:27 pm »
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I hope Levesque wins.  He's one of the best GOPhers this cycle.
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Voter #652
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« Reply #11 on: October 29, 2010, 11:06:58 pm »
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What the hell is this sh!#?

LePage coattails!?!?!

A guy whose pulling around 40% is not going to have coattails.
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SvenssonRS
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« Reply #12 on: October 29, 2010, 11:09:40 pm »
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What the hell is this sh!#?

LePage coattails!?!?!

A guy whose pulling around 40% is not going to have coattails.

Correction: a guy in completely good standing to lose to an indy is not going to have coattails.
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Winter and July.
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jfern
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« Reply #13 on: October 29, 2010, 11:24:39 pm »
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Welch has got to be sh**tting his pants. After all, as goes Maine goes Vermont.
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Hash
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« Reply #14 on: October 30, 2010, 07:44:14 am »
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LePage coattails!?!?!

Everybody loves zee French.

LePage makes me ashamed to be French.
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17:40   oakvale   The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death
Zarn
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« Reply #15 on: October 30, 2010, 09:58:37 am »
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LePage coattails!?!?!

Everybody loves zee French.

LePage makes me ashamed to be French.

I'm French, too... well Franco-American. (Cuban-American also) Smiley

I'm very sexy. lol

I don't think he is any worse than some of the politicians we see in the mother country. Royal and Le Pen, for example.
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Vepres
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« Reply #16 on: October 30, 2010, 10:47:43 am »
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I guess my gut feeling is looking to be right yet again!
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2010, 08:28:07 am »
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I win this round.
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