MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46

[cinyc]

http://mncampaignreport.com/diary/7634/cravaack-campaign-crumbling-in-cd-8

Yeah, we should believe the Minnesota Progressive Project, not the polls.  Obviously, the polls are the ones with the political axe to grind.  Not the internal "poll" that claims Oberstar is winning undecideds without telling us if he's even winning the topline.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

No, we should believe Oberstar's internal, which shows him "up 3-1 with independents" but that he refuses to release.

[Torie]

No, we should believe Oberstar's internal, which shows him "up 3-1 with independents" but that he refuses to release.

Undecideds, not independents. Do I believe that the undecideds (a relative handful of voters in any event), are breaking 3-1 for Oberstar?  No.

[Vepres]

Yes, the swing seems more muted in Minnesota than the rest of the Great Lakes states.

The Minnesota GOP doesn't seem like a great state party to me. People like Pawlenty and Bachman are not the kind of politicians one would expect from the MNGOP.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Something to consider is that even if Cravaack has an early lead St. Louis County is always the last part of the state to report. And I'm sure if it's still close they'll "find" a bunch of votes somewhere. Also that Dayton is hitting that area hard as key to his GOTV strategy and that his running mate is from there.

[Ebowed]

This would be a real upset - the DFL has no business losing this seat (to paraphrase another post in this thread).

[So the Heroes Fall]

Well from what I heard tonight Duluth is pretty revved up.

[Vasall des Midas]

Just about the worst result of the night. Though I guess it's largely about turnout differentials?

[Sibboleth]

Just about the worst result of the night.

Yeah. I quite liked Oberstar, as far as you can like senior American congressmen. 'Rural' districts can often be remarkably unsentimental when incumbents get too old though. I mentally called it last night when I saw that he was badly underperforming in Lake county.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Just about the worst result of the night.

Quite.

Though I guess it's largely about turnout differentials?

He underran even in St. Louis County, so I doubt it.

We have an awesome bench in that district, but we'll also have to see how redistricting affects it.

[Vasall des Midas]

Just about the worst result of the night.

Quite.

Though I guess it's largely about turnout differentials?

He underran even in St. Louis County, so I doubt it.

Sh!t.

[Dgov]

Just about the worst result of the night.

Quite.

Though I guess it's largely about turnout differentials?

He underran even in St. Louis County, so I doubt it.

We have an awesome bench in that district, but we'll also have to see how redistricting affects it.

Assuming it's bipartisan incumbent-protection map, it'll probably trade Duluth and the Iron range with the current 7th for some of the 7th's more Conservative West-central MN counties.  It'll also probably push into the current 6th a bit and become a relatively safe Republican district (for Minnesota anyway).