MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:25:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2010 Elections
  2010 House Election Polls
  MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2]
Author Topic: MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46  (Read 10565 times)
cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,721


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 31, 2010, 12:41:24 PM »
« edited: October 31, 2010, 12:43:12 PM by cinyc »


Yeah, we should believe the Minnesota Progressive Project, not the polls.  Obviously, the polls are the ones with the political axe to grind.  Not the internal "poll" that claims Oberstar is winning undecideds without telling us if he's even winning the topline.
Logged
tpfkaw
wormyguy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,118
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.58, S: 1.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 31, 2010, 12:43:11 PM »

No, we should believe Oberstar's internal, which shows him "up 3-1 with independents" but that he refuses to release.
Logged
Torie
Moderators
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 46,057
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 31, 2010, 01:35:08 PM »

No, we should believe Oberstar's internal, which shows him "up 3-1 with independents" but that he refuses to release.

Undecideds, not independents. Do I believe that the undecideds (a relative handful of voters in any event), are breaking 3-1 for Oberstar?  No.
Logged
Vepres
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,032
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 31, 2010, 03:51:09 PM »

Yes, the swing seems more muted in Minnesota than the rest of the Great Lakes states.

The Minnesota GOP doesn't seem like a great state party to me. People like Pawlenty and Bachman are not the kind of politicians one would expect from the MNGOP.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 31, 2010, 06:51:05 PM »

Something to consider is that even if Cravaack has an early lead St. Louis County is always the last part of the state to report. And I'm sure if it's still close they'll "find" a bunch of votes somewhere. Also that Dayton is hitting that area hard as key to his GOTV strategy and that his running mate is from there.
Logged
Ebowed
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,597


Political Matrix
E: 4.13, S: 2.09

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2010, 11:43:28 PM »

This would be a real upset - the DFL has no business losing this seat (to paraphrase another post in this thread).
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2010, 11:59:38 PM »

Well from what I heard tonight Duluth is pretty revved up.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2010, 01:08:35 PM »

Just about the worst result of the night. Though I guess it's largely about turnout differentials?
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,610
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2010, 01:40:24 PM »


Yeah. I quite liked Oberstar, as far as you can like senior American congressmen. 'Rural' districts can often be remarkably unsentimental when incumbents get too old though. I mentally called it last night when I saw that he was badly underperforming in Lake county.
Logged
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
Atlas Prophet
*****
Posts: 112,714
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2010, 11:50:48 PM »


Quite.


He underran even in St. Louis County, so I doubt it.

We have an awesome bench in that district, but we'll also have to see how redistricting affects it.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: November 05, 2010, 04:49:01 AM »

Sh!t.
Logged
Dgov
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,558
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: November 12, 2010, 02:30:14 PM »


Quite.


He underran even in St. Louis County, so I doubt it.

We have an awesome bench in that district, but we'll also have to see how redistricting affects it.

Assuming it's bipartisan incumbent-protection map, it'll probably trade Duluth and the Iron range with the current 7th for some of the 7th's more Conservative West-central MN counties.  It'll also probably push into the current 6th a bit and become a relatively safe Republican district (for Minnesota anyway).
Logged
Pages: 1 [2]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.032 seconds with 15 queries.