MN-8: SUSA sez Oberstar 47, Cravaack 46

[Vepres]

Could this mean that MN-07 is also in danger? Geographically similar, with MN-07 being very Republican, relatively.

[Vepres]

Another odd SurveyUSA House poll. The district is more Democratic leaning than it's PVI indicates.

But it also seems like the kind of place that one would assume would trend hard Republican this year, no?

[Vepres]

Tons of pro-choice candidates have won this district and it elects tons of pro-choicers on the local level. Abortion is not that big of an issue here. The pro-lifers who don't like Oberstar are the ones who normally vote Republican anyway and I doubt they voted for Al Franken (who carried the district.)

Another odd SurveyUSA House poll. The district is more Democratic leaning than it's PVI indicates.

But it also seems like the kind of place that one would assume would trend hard Republican this year, no?

I'd bet the Tea Party is about as popular in Duluth as it is where I live.

Rural, blue collar, white, etc

[Vepres]

Duluth isn't rural, nor is it particularly more blue collar than most places really.

I was referring to the district as a whole.

[Vepres]

I suppose a shockingly close result isn't out of the question (Oberstar is getting on and that's not a good thing when a big swing is on) but I have trouble seeing this, especially with Dayton leading in the polls (however narrowly). I mean, obviously, if it is anywhere near this close or if (heaven forbid) Oberstar actually loses then we're dealing with a landslide and - probably - a near total Democratic collapse in the Mid West.

They were already going to be slaughtered, the question is by how much.

Interesting, though, how much things change so quickly. Obama did very well in the Midwest, surprisingly well, in fact.

[Vepres]

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Ever thought these things may be related in some way?

Well, Obama was a sort of hometown hero.

[Vepres]

Yes, the swing seems more muted in Minnesota than the rest of the Great Lakes states.

The Minnesota GOP doesn't seem like a great state party to me. People like Pawlenty and Bachman are not the kind of politicians one would expect from the MNGOP.