It really does not matter who wins there, whoever loses will just pick up the new seat in 2012. 2 GOP seats and 2 Dems is basically written in stone.
I'm not so sure. It's possible to pack enough D's in CD-1 to make 3 R-leaning districts. However, as long as the Dems have at least one chamber they should be able to hold for a more equal map.
With four districts, NV may get close to a Hispanic-majority district in Clark Co, and cores of existing districts are to be respected under state law. That may pose a challenge to creating a second truly D-leaning district. A swing district is more likely.