Poll on biggest surprise (margin)

[nclib]

I'd say Bush's margin in West Virginia.

I was also surprised that Alabama had the largest swing to Bush.

[Alcon]

West Virginia.

That's actually order I'd put it in, except with Ohio last.

[Gustaf]

I expected Kerry to win Vermont overwhelmingly. I also expected Bush to win Ohio narrowly, though not that Kerry would do better there than nationally. Florida at +2 compared to national average is not that suprising really Alabama is kind of "duh"...

But I really did expect West Virginia to be stronger for Kerry than it was for Gore, AT LEAST compared to national average that it didn't happen is a bit of a mystery. Last time I checked VA trended Dem, compared to national average.

[agcatter]

West Virginia hands down.

[nclib]

Alabama is kind of "duh"...

Although Alabama of course was expected to be uncompetitive, I included it because I was surprised that it had the highest swing to Bush.

Alabama swung to Bush by 10.8%, interesting given that Mississippi swung by only 3.4%.

[opebo]

WV is no surprise - its full of Born Agains and a lot of pro military types.  Florida was the one that surprised me most.

[Jake]

WV is no surprise - its full of Born Agains and a lot of pro military types.  Florida was the one that surprised me most.

What morins the military are.

I would say Florida.  I thought maybe 1-2%, but not 5%

[Alcon]

WV is no surprise - its full of Born Agains and a lot of pro military types.  Florida was the one that surprised me most.

What morins the military are.

I would say Florida.  I thought maybe 1-2%, but not 5%

Yeah, but 16 percent? Mason-Dixon was polling at half that. It made me feel like a morin, too.

[jacob_101]

FLORIDA.  I expected Bush to win but not by over 300,000 votes.

[bergie72]

Florida.

I fully expected another version of 2000.  I was very surprised that it was called for Bush the same night as the election!!

[Lunar]

I expected Kerry to be about 1.5% better in West Virginia than his national average.  Many of the earlier polls confirmed this.  Kerry held his primary victory celebration in the state and every indicator said it would be close.

My personal prediction had Kerry winning it.

[Defarge]

WV.  Very surprising.  When CNN immediately called it for Bush, it was when I realized the odds were against us.

[The Vorlon]

WV is no surprise - its full of Born Agains and a lot of pro military types.  Florida was the one that surprised me most.

What morins the military are.

I would say Florida.  I thought maybe 1-2%, but not 5%

Yeah, but 16 percent? Mason-Dixon was polling at half that. It made me feel like a morin, too.

Actually..

MD said 8..it was actually 13

5% error was the worst MD poll of the entire cycle.

Minnesota surprised me.

Every GOper I know swore up and down that state was dead even....

It was not..

Nevada was much closer than expected too