PREDICTIONS THREAD (GUBERNATORIAL/IN-STATE RACES)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

While we're at it, what do people think about the State Legislatures?

Already time to call this. GOP wins:

Senate
10
16
17
22
28
47
53
56

GOP +8

House
01A
11B
12B
13B
16A
17B
40A
49B
53A
56A
56B

DFL wins:
35B (Upset prediction. Incumbent was arrested for a DUI recently and has got nothing but negative press. Very conservative seat though.)
41A (Represented by an ultra-conservative who won in a fluke 3-way race who doesn't fit it well at all.)

Please note that even in 2006 and 2008 the GOP picked up seats so the DFL winning a few more or even a Senate seat or two isn't out of the question.

Oddly enough that equals only GOP +9 with half as many seats. The DFL has more of these seats down strongly with better personal votes.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

While we're at it, what do people think about the State Legislatures?

Here in Massachusetts, I'll estimate that the GOP picks up 4 seats in the lower house and picks up 1 in the state senate.

[Lief 🗽]

The only races where I have no idea what will happen is Ohio, Connecticut and Florida, all of which I, at the last moment and probably stupidly, gave to the Dems in my prediction. I do think we'll win at least 1-2 of those though. The governor races are one of the few places where I remain somewhat optimistic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Final prediction map, based on 538.com :



And the confidence map :




Here it looks a bit brighter... If Democrats take Florida, I'll consider it to be a good night.

[Joe Republic]

This thread will be locked just before the first results threads open (and reopened after election day), so hurry up and get your predictions in!

[Antonio the Sixth]

DAMN ! 538.com just reversed its call for Florida once again !

What should I do ? Update my prediction or not ?

[Dave from Michigan]

Hello!

Rick Snyder wins in Michigan.

ok that's an easy one.

He breaks 60%

He wins Wayne county minus Detroit

He gets 15% in Detroit.

He comes within 5% of winning Wayne county.

crazy predictions, maybe but he is up 18-20% in every poll. If he gets 15%-20% in Detroit he might just win Wayne county but I am not predicting that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

DAMN ! 538.com just reversed its call for Florida once again !

What should I do ? Update my prediction or not ?

Too late...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Prediction for Oklahoma Governor:

Mary Fallin - 56
Jari Askins - 43

[GMantis]

My final prediction:


Confidence map:


Florida and Connecticut were almost coin toss choices.

[Joe Biden 2020]

My final prediction:


Confidence map:


Florida and Connecticut were almost coin toss choices.

I get that the carrot top arrows are flips, but what are the asterisks?

[Joe Republic]

I get that the carrot top arrows are flips, but what are the asterisks?

Both are flips; "carrot tops" are for open races, asterisks are for defeated incumbents.  It's the standard Dave has used since always.


Anyway, this thread is now locked until the results are in.

[Sam Spade]

this thread be unlocked too...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'll get a 79.7% score.

Could have been 82.4% weren't it for Florida...