PREDICTIONS THREAD (GUBERNATORIAL/IN-STATE RACES)
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  PREDICTIONS THREAD (GUBERNATORIAL/IN-STATE RACES)
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Joe Biden 2020
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« on: October 31, 2010, 02:25:34 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2010, 04:39:29 PM by Sam Spade »

The moderating team might be planning to do this anyway, but why don't we combine the predictions for Governor and Congress into the existing thread on the Congress board and same thing with the Results.  That would save us from having to toggle back and forth and losing what coherency there is left in our messages.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2010, 05:36:11 PM »

Seconded.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2010, 05:37:50 PM »

If you want it that way, fine with me.  But I know that someone is going to start a prediction thread here, and we're prepared.  Smiley
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Joe Biden 2020
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2010, 06:11:37 PM »

If you want it that way, fine with me.  But I know that someone is going to start a prediction thread here, and we're prepared.  Smiley

Yeah, but you control and will create the Results thread for both the Governors and the Congress.  So, why not make both all-in-one in the Congressional board, since it has more traffic than the Gubernatorial board.

Also, and unrelated to 2010, is there anyway we can go ahead and create a 2011 Governor child board for Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana?  I'm sure residents of those three states are looking beyond this Tuesday night.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2010, 08:33:01 PM »

I'm scared of doing predictions for the House because I might actually have to post predictions, rather than blather. So, yeah. Let's do gubernatorial races first.

Predictions for direct elections to the post of Little Caesar. Part one of... some.

Maine - LePage is going to win, which will be interesting as he seems to be a little touched. The way things are going, Cutler will probably finish second. LePage, by the way, looks hilariously French. As in, a stereotype. Half expect to see a picture of him with a beret, stripy shirt and string of onions. And a harmonica.

New Hampshire - the swing against Lynch is going to be massive, but the polls all say that he win win, pretty comfortably by normal standards if not his. Yet maybe this is not so certain. Cast your minds back to 2004 when popular Republican incumbent Craig Benson was locked in a surprisingly close battle with Lynch. One to watch.

Vermont - not a clue, to be honest. Though momentum seems to be with Shumlin and Vermont can be a contrary place.

Massachusetts - one weird race that I have half-followed, even if details do escape me. Patrick doesn't have a big lead, but it's consistent enough (and in a state with a solid structural bias towards his party) for anything other than re-election to be seen as upset. Or at least it would be in a 'normal' two-candidate race. Cahill is still polling around 8% or so and, as noted elsewhere, independents seldom poll as well as they poll. So that's the problem right there. Still, Patrick should win, but stranger things have happened.

Rhode Island - a blacksmith courted me, nine months and better. he surely won my heart, wrote me a letter. with his hammer in his hand he looked so clever... well... hmm... maybe not the last bit there. Though I suppose some kind of freakish upset is not impossible.

Connecticut - I've not been following this race at all, but I note that it seems extremely close and that the momentum is with The Other Tom Foley. Which means he'll probably win narrowly. But, as I said, I've not been following the race so might be talking ket.

New York - lol

Pennsylvania - I don't think Corbett has ever trailed, so...

Maryland - the guy who was Mayor in the Wire seems to be quite safe now.

Ohio - Strickland is probably done for. Which must suck for him personally as he went under in 1994 as well. Obviously if anyone can pull off a shock re-election, I suppose it would be him and I don't think we can rule that out, but he's fighting a battle not so much against Kasich as against material discontent. Material discontent usually wins.

Michigan - er... um... ouch.

Wisconsin - that whole material discontent is mine enemy problem again. Walker walks it.

Minnesota - Minnesota often does different and might do again. Or it might play Democratic Heartbreaker again. Dayton is favoured and should pull it off, but it'll be close and could go the other way if the tide is strong enough.

Iowa - splat

Illinois - after Blago, holding this was always going to be a problem. Democrats shouldn't beat themselves up about choosing Quinn; Hynes would have struggled as well.

---end of part one. roll credits---
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2010, 08:43:15 PM »

I think the best thing to predict for NY is which ballot lines receive greater than 50,000 votes.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2010, 08:57:04 PM »

---Part Two of Several. The less interesting, less wordy part. The part with the dull bits were the heroes cross the poorly-done cgi background that will look *so* dated in five years time---

South Carolina - Haley is polling remarkably poorly for a Republican in the Deep South in this year of all years. The Appalachian Trail, those smears or just a bad candidate? Not that she'll lose, but it might be embarrassing.

Georgia - tempting to say that Barnes picked the wrong year for his comeback bid, but then again he'll be 66 next time round so maybe it was Quixote or nothing. Deal will probably be a one term governor, one way or another fwiw.

Florida - I've not followed this. Mason-Dixon was always the only Florida poll worth paying attention to, yet all other noises point the other way. So I don't really know, in all honesty.

Alabama - so, yeah.

Tennessee - any chance of this result being a perfect reversal of 2006?

Arkansas - Beebe is perfectly safe. Yet I wouldn't be surprised if this is quite a bit closer than the polls say; though still not actually close.

Texas - I never thought the Great White Hope had much of a chance. I guess Goodhair will run for President now or something; he does seem the type for that. The map will be very interesting though.

Oklahoma - why bother?

Kansas - yawn

Nebraska - zzzzzz...

South Dakota - that theme continues...

Wyoming - ...and continues

Colorado - and then there was madness. I won't pretend to predict this, but Tancredo does stand at least half a chance and that's pretty scary. I mean, Tancredo? In charge of a state? Stop worrying about Angle, people, this may be where the horror lies.

New Mexico - Denish turned out to be much worse on paper than in reality, didn't she?

Arizona - baiting works

Utah - sleepy again

Idaho - haha. 'butch otter'.

Nevada - this Reid will certainly lose.

California - say what you like about Moonbeam, the old pro knows what he's doing. Defeat would now be quite shocking.

Oregon - Kitzhaber has fought back well, but I still don't feel like calling this. Most ballots cast already, right? Which probably isn't good for him.

Alaska - Parnell will win

Hawaiʻi - curious that this is a legit race. Abercrombie ought to win, but then polls here are worthless.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2010, 09:14:37 PM »

Was Craig Benson really that popular? I don't recall, it was like six years ago for God's sake, but I seem to remember he had a rocky two years in office, which was why Lynch was able to beat him.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2010, 09:21:59 PM »

Was Craig Benson really that popular? I don't recall, it was like six years ago for God's sake, but I seem to remember he had a rocky two years in office, which was why Lynch was able to beat him.

My memory is fuzzy on that as well. But I think he was a little bit. His defeat was an upset anyway, I remember that much.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2010, 09:26:30 PM »

We pretty much agree on all the predictions, although I am more certain, I think, that Minnesota will go to the Democrats. Indeed, Nikki Haley's victory will seem quite underwhelming when compared with the surrounding environment, but I've heard that the Democratic candidate is one of the best they've put up in years. I also agree on Florida and Oregon, but I have the wave carrying both Dudley and Scott to narrow victories.
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xavier110
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2010, 09:30:36 PM »

I think the best thing to predict for NY is which ballot lines receive greater than 50,000 votes.

Agreed. Can the Green, Libertarian, and the Rent is 2 Damn High Parties all pass 50k? The debate only helped raise their profiles, and it's not like anyone's enthusiastic about the main party candidates.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2010, 09:51:41 PM »

Was Craig Benson really that popular? I don't recall, it was like six years ago for God's sake, but I seem to remember he had a rocky two years in office, which was why Lynch was able to beat him.

My memory is fuzzy on that as well. But I think he was a little bit. His defeat was an upset anyway, I remember that much.


Just FYI, if Lynch wins, it'll be the first time a NH gov has won a fourth term.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2010, 09:01:36 AM »
« Edited: November 01, 2010, 11:27:33 AM by Eraserhead »

And here... we... go.

ERASERHEAD'S FINAL GUBERNATORIAL PREDICTIONS

Maine (GOP PICKUP)

LePage (R) 43%
Cutler (I) 29%
Mitchell (D) 28%

New Hampshire (DEM HOLD)

Lynch (D) 53%
Stephen (R) 46%
Babiarz (L) 1%

Vermont (DEM PICKUP)

Shumlin (D) 52%
Dubie (R) 46%
Others 2%

This one is tricky. I wish that there had been more polling done on it.

Massachusetts (DEM HOLD)

Patrick (D) 47%
Baker (R) 46%
Cahill (I) 5%
Stein (G) 1%

A bit concerned about this one actually. Still wondering exactly how the Cahill collapse will shake out.

Connecticut (GOP HOLD)

Foley (R) 50%
Malloy (D) 49%
Marsh (I) 1%

I'm gonna trust PPP and Quinnipac. Foley has all the momentum. I hope I'm wrong though.

Rhode Island (IND PICKUP)

Chafee (I) 37%
Caprio (D) 32%
Robitallie (R) 31%

lol @ Caprio. He would have won this.

New York (DEM HOLD)

Cuomo (D) 56%
Paladino (R) 36%
McMillen (RI2DH) 3%
Hawkins (G) 2%
Redlich (L) 1%
Barron (F) 0.5%
Davis (A-P) 0.5%

Bonus Round:

Attorney General (DEM HOLD)

Schneiderman (D) 51%
Donovan (R) 49%

Comptroller (DEM HOLD)

DiNapoli (D) 53%
Wilson (R) 47%

Pennsylvania (GOP PICKUP)

Corbett (R) 55%
Onorato (D) 45%

Maryland (DEM HOLD)

O'Malley (D) 54%
Ehrlich (R) 44%
Others 2%

Ohio (GOP PICKUP)

Kasich (R) 50%
Strickland (D) 48%
Others 2%

An important one to watch. It'll be close.

Michigan (GOP PICKUP)

Snyder (R) 58%
Bernero (D) 40%
Others 2%

Epic fail.

Wisconsin (GOP PICKUP)

Walker (R) 54%
Barrett (D) 45%
Others 1%

Minnesota (DEM PICKUP)

Dayton (D) 46%
Emmer (R) 42%
Horner (I) 11%
Hakeem (G) 1%

Iowa (GOP PICKUP)

Republican Landslide. Don't care.

Illinois (GOP PICKUP)

Brady (R) 48%
Quinn (D) 47%
Whitney (G) 4%
Green (L) 1%

Anther one that I think may end up a lot close than expected.


Arkansas (DEM HOLD)

Democratic Landslide. Don't care.

Tennessee (GOP PICKUP)

See Iowa.

Alabama (GOP HOLD)

See Iowa again.

South Carolina (GOP HOLD)

Haley (R) 55%
Sheheen (D) 45%
Reeves (G) 0%

It looks like she'll underperform.

Florida (GOP HOLD/PICKUP?)

Scott (R) 50%
Sink (D) 49.5%
Others .5%

Texas (GOP HOLD)

Perry (R) 54%
White (D) 44%
Others  2%

Colorado (DEM HOLD)

Hickenlooper (D) 49%
Tancredo (AC) 42%
Maes (R) 8%
Brown (L) 1%

New Mexico (GOP PICKUP)

Martinez 54%
Denish 46%

Arizona (GOP HOLD)

Brewer 54%
Goddard 44%
Others 2%

California (DEM PICKUP)

Brown 52%
Whitman 46%
Others 2%

I am Governor Jerry Brown, my aura smiles and never frowns.

Oregon (DEM HOLD?)

Huh

Not gonna bother.

Hawaii and Alaska races look closer than they should be. Hawaii will be a Dem Pickup and Alaska will be a GOP Hold. Also Nevada, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Idaho and Utah are all going Republican but they're all too boring to discuss beyond that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2010, 09:35:22 AM »

Pennsylvania - Corbett - 55%   Onorato - 45%


Republican pickups: Maine, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Tennessee, Florida (counting Crist as an Independent Governor here) Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Wyoming.

Democratic pickups: Connecticut, Vermont, Minnesota, California and Hawaii.

Independent pickup: Rhode Island


Republicans have a net pickup of seven.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2010, 01:57:30 PM »

Meh, I don't feel like doing specific numbers:


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Sam Spade
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2010, 04:40:11 PM »

bump to the top
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2010, 08:15:43 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2010, 11:55:04 PM by TheDeadFlagBlues »



I just got done with my specific numbers and was about to save the changes but then I accidentally clicked a link. Whoops.
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Smash255
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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2010, 10:43:16 PM »



GOP picks up IA, KS, ME, MI, NM, OH, OK, PA, TN, WI, WY

Dems pick up  CA, CT  HI, MN, VT

Ind pick up RI

29 GOP, 20 Dem, 1 Ind
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they don't love you like i love you
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2010, 10:57:04 PM »

Meh, mine are already uploaded.

I'll enter my state leg predictions and House ones though after I do some video gaming. Then off to bed and up at 7AM tomorrow...
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Yelnoc
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2010, 08:02:06 AM »

Georgia: Sad
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2010, 09:21:17 AM »

While we're at it, what do people think about the State Legislatures?
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2010, 09:33:13 AM »

While we're at it, what do people think about the State Legislatures?

I expect a massacre.  Dems are a couple of seats away from controlling the House in Texas, but more likely than not GOP will gain 5-7 seats.  Both sides in NY pretty much agree that the GOP is going to be taking back the State Senate, fwiw.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2010, 09:49:26 AM »

My prediction:



I am least confident about Oregon, and Vermont to an extent.
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Hash
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2010, 10:31:02 AM »



Close call on FL, OH and CT.
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Barnes
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2010, 12:28:11 PM »

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