I'm scared of doing predictions for the House because I might actually have to post predictions, rather than blather. So, yeah. Let's do gubernatorial races first.
Predictions for direct elections to the post of Little Caesar. Part one of... some.
Maine - LePage is going to win, which will be interesting as he seems to be a little touched. The way things are going, Cutler will probably finish second. LePage, by the way, looks hilariously French. As in, a stereotype. Half expect to see a picture of him with a beret, stripy shirt and string of onions. And a harmonica.
New Hampshire - the swing against Lynch is going to be massive, but the polls all say that he win win, pretty comfortably by normal standards if not his. Yet maybe this is not so certain. Cast your minds back to 2004 when popular Republican incumbent Craig Benson was locked in a surprisingly close battle with Lynch. One to watch.
Vermont - not a clue, to be honest. Though momentum seems to be with Shumlin and Vermont can be a contrary place.
Massachusetts - one weird race that I
have half-followed, even if details do escape me. Patrick doesn't have a big lead, but it's consistent enough (and in a state with a solid structural bias towards his party) for anything other than re-election to be seen as upset. Or at least it would be in a 'normal' two-candidate race. Cahill is still polling around 8% or so and, as noted elsewhere, independents seldom poll as well as they poll. So that's the problem right there. Still, Patrick should win, but stranger things have happened.
Rhode Island - a blacksmith courted me, nine months and better. he surely won my heart, wrote me a letter. with his hammer in his hand he looked so clever... well... hmm... maybe not the last bit there. Though I suppose some kind of freakish upset is not impossible.
Connecticut - I've not been following this race at all, but I note that it seems extremely close and that the momentum is with The Other Tom Foley. Which means he'll probably win narrowly. But, as I said, I've not been following the race so might be talking ket.
New York - lol
Pennsylvania - I don't think Corbett has ever trailed, so...
Maryland - the guy who was Mayor in
the Wire seems to be quite safe now.
Ohio - Strickland is probably done for. Which must suck for him personally as he went under in 1994 as well. Obviously if anyone can pull off a shock re-election, I suppose it would be him and I don't think we can rule that out, but he's fighting a battle not so much against Kasich as against material discontent. Material discontent usually wins.
Michigan - er... um... ouch.
Wisconsin - that whole material discontent is mine enemy problem again. Walker walks it.
Minnesota - Minnesota often does different and might do again. Or it might play Democratic Heartbreaker again. Dayton is favoured and should pull it off, but it'll be close and could go the other way if the tide is strong enough.
Iowa - splat
Illinois - after Blago, holding this was always going to be a
problem. Democrats shouldn't beat themselves up about choosing Quinn; Hynes would have struggled as well.
---end of part one. roll credits---