How Would The Senate Elections Play Out If All 100 Seats were Up For Election?
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  How Would The Senate Elections Play Out If All 100 Seats were Up For Election?
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Author Topic: How Would The Senate Elections Play Out If All 100 Seats were Up For Election?  (Read 1108 times)
Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
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« on: October 31, 2010, 04:41:56 PM »

Well? Huh The GOP would surely take over the Senate, but who would be vulnerable?
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Hash
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2010, 04:49:11 PM »

Would it be elected like two-thirds of the Brazilian Senate is, aka top two candidates running win (with each voter having 2 votes)?
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2010, 04:50:28 PM »

Would it be elected like two-thirds of the Brazilian Senate is, aka top two candidates running win (with each voter having 2 votes)?

No, voters would vote for separate Senate seats. If I'm not making sense just picture the same way that New York is holding its Senate elections this year I believe.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2010, 05:01:53 PM »

Pretending that no Tea Party candidates would oust a sitting incumbent and that obvious resignations occur (Ensign), I'd say the following Senators would lose:
Franken
Begich
Landreiu
Hagan
Shaheen
Tester
McCaskill
Webb
Brown(OH)

Can't think of a couple more off the top of my head. It's hard to say, as many factors attribute to how a seat will play out.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2010, 05:11:55 PM »

Menendez would probably lose.
Bill and Ben Nelson as well.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2010, 05:53:23 PM »

Assuming no Tea Party:

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Vepres
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2010, 06:17:59 PM »

Two separate elections (as opposed to one where a person gets two votes), assuming no retirements outside of the obvious:


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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2010, 06:18:49 PM »

So if there was a tea party, which Republican Senators would get out-primaried and by whom?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2010, 07:31:03 PM »

So if there was a tea party, which Republican Senators would get out-primaried and by whom?

Snowe and Collins are both gone, no doubt.  Hatch, Lugar, Hutchison, and Graham are all probably out, and I wouldn't be astounded to see Pat Roberts and/or Lamar Alexander lose.  Ensign would lose too, but not solely due to the Tea Party.
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BillyW
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2010, 08:41:46 AM »

South and North Dakota would be tough for Dems to hold
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2010, 08:52:45 AM »

They did a poll on this and it showed the GOP would win a filibuster proof majority.

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2010/10/full-senate-grabs-gop-win-filibusterproof-majority-polls-show/
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2010, 09:16:27 AM »

It's difficult to tell who else would be running in some of the potentially competitive races. That being said, I bet the following races would be (at least somewhat) competitive, as the incumbent looks like they could be vulnerable in either the primary or the general-

Alaska (Begich) - Certain GOP pickup
Connecticut (Lieberman) - In real trouble if Simmons ran against him
Florida (Nelson) - Tossup, though I'd put money on a Dem hold--I think the last poll done had him beating all of his GOP challengers
Indiana (Lugar - primary) - GOP hold, even if Lugar lost the primary
Maine (both Collins and Snowe - primary) - Depends upon the outcome of the primary
Minnesota (Franken) - Likely GOP pickup, even if it was a Franken-Coleman rematch
Missouri (McCaskill) - Likely GOP pickup
Montana (Tester) - Likely GOP pickup
Nebraska (Nelson) - Certain GOP pickup
Nevada (Ensign) - Pretty sure he wouldn't make it through the primary
New Hampshire (Shaheen) - Likely GOP pickup
New Jersey (Menendez) - Tossup
North Carolina (Hagan) - Likely GOP pickup
Ohio (Brown) - Tossup, though my money would be on Dem hold
South Carolina (Graham - primary) - Likely GOP hold
South Dakota (Johnson) - Tossup
Texas (Hutchison - primary) - Likely GOP hold
Virginia (Webb) - Lean GOP pickup

I suppose Louisiana (Landrieu), Michigan (Stabenow), and Pennsylvania (Casey, Jr.) could be added to the list, though they seem (at least to me) to be safer than those in the above list.
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