Count Sarah Palin in...

[Joe Biden 2020]

Sarah Palin all but ponied up the ante this morning on Fox News Sunday with Chris Wallace.  I am watching Hardball with Chris Matthews on MSNBC right now and they showed a clip of her interview with Mr. Wallace and she said, "if the country needs me, I'll be willing to make the sacrifices necessary to [run for the office]." Pat Buchanan responded that [paraphrase]she hasn't decided formally, but she'd be kickin' herself the rest of her life if she let this opportunity pass her by.[/paraphrase].

Sounds to me like we have a candidate for 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

Her exact words:

http://www.gop12.com/2010/10/palin-if-country-needed-me.html

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How noble of her.

As GOP12 notes, Gingrich has also framed a potential run in terms of making a personal sacrifice for the greater good:

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[Bull Moose Base]

New prediction!   Palin will be an undeclared candidate, continuing to work for FOX, while making many visits to Iowa.  If she does badly in the straw poll, she will save face by never getting in officially. If she wins or almost wins, she'll claim she hears the people's will that she run.

If she doesn't run, I bet she endorses Thune, Pawlenty or Barbour.  But maybe even Romney.

Remember too:  she'll be reeling in 3 days when Christine and Joe Miller both lose.

[Joe Biden 2020]

New prediction!   Palin will be an undeclared candidate, continuing to work for FOX, while making many visits to Iowa.  If she does badly in the straw poll, she will save face by never getting in officially. If she wins or almost wins, she'll claim she hears the people's will that she run.

If she doesn't run, I bet she endorses Thune, Pawlenty or Barbour.  But maybe even Romney.

Remember too:  she'll be reeling in 3 days when Christine and Joe Miller both lose.

Christine is a gonner, but I'm not going to count Joe dead, yet.  I read somewhere there are a bunch of other write-in candidates with other variations of Lisa M so there will be fewer possibilities that would count for Lisa Murkowski.  I'm thinking a Joe Miller victory in Alaska.

[Poundingtherock]

Uh Joe, you may want to keep up with the news.

even PPP is showing Miller up 7 in a pretty good sample for Murk.

Christine O'Donnell had closed a 19 point gap to a 10-point gap according to Monmouth in two weeks.

If O'Donnell loses to Coons by single-digits, Palin can just argue that shows O'Donnell would beat Coons in nearly every other swing state.  IF Coons can only beat O'donnell by 9 points in a state that went to Obama by 26, he would not have beaten her in Ohio, Florida, Nevada, or Colorado.  That's the argument that Palin could make if O'donnell comes up with a respectable finish.

[Lief 🗽]

Palin will likely run and win, though one candidate that I'm keeping my eyes on to replace Palin as the more electable, though still very far-right demagogue sort of candidate that should become President in 2012, is Rick Perry. If he beats Bill White by more than 10 points (which is looking likely) he'll probably start making noises about running for president.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Christine O'Donnell had closed a 19 point gap to a 10-point gap according to Monmouth in two weeks.

Yes!  Through the power of prayer! Praise Christ that he has nothing better to do than decide Delaware's next senator through incremental movement of public opinion!

[Mr. Morden]

She's got a new book coming out, and her book tour itinerary includes stops in Iowa and SC:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/45011.html

"Here’s the list of stops:

Nov. 23: Phoenix
Nov. 26: Tulsa, Okla.
Nov. 27: Norfolk, Neb.
Nov. 27: Des Moines
Nov. 28: Andover, Kan.
Nov. 28: Dallas
Nov. 29: Houston
Nov. 29: New Orleans
Nov. 30: Baton Rouge, La.
Nov. 30: Little Rock, Ark.
Dec. 1: Brentwood, Tenn.
Dec. 1: Lexington, Ky.
Dec. 2: Spirit Lake, Iowa
Dec. 2. Carmel, Ind.
Dec. 3: Cincinnati
Dec. 3: Columbia, S.C."

[Yelnoc]

What does she write these books about?  She's not that interesting of a person.

[tmthforu94]

I hope she runs for Senate in 2014, just to keep her away from running for President.

[exopolitician]

Too bad America doesn't need you, so moot point.

[Mr. Morden]

Thought some of you might find this an interesting read; PPP's got some interesting new state-by-state GOP primary polls.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/some-good-signs-for-palin.html

"PPP's newest batch of 2012 Republican primary polls conducted right before last week's election finds Mitt Romney ahead in the critical early state of Florida, Tim Pawlenty surprisingly weak in his home state of Minnesota, and Sarah Palin posting leads in Texas, Wisconsin, West Virginia, and Maine."

Those polls are discussed here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127849.0

[Joe Biden 2020]

I hope she runs for Senate in 2014, just to keep her away from running for President.

Where would she run?  I highly doubt Alaska wants to hire someone who quit on them to go to Washington.  Plus, her word is not necessarily golden up there considering her candidate, Joe Miller, may well lose to Lisa Murkowski.

[Ronnie]

I just don't think Sarah Palin can win.  The media completely obliterated her in 2008, and there is no indication that Palin has healed her wounds with the public or the media.

What is Palin's approval rating, by the way?

[Smash255]

I just don't think Sarah Palin can win.  The media completely obliterated her in 2008, and there is no indication that Palin has healed her wounds with the public or the media.

What is Palin's approval rating, by the way?

Well for her it would be favorable rating and its pretty bad, though its real high among Republicans.  Democrats and more importantly Independents hate her guts.

[Ronnie]

I just don't think Sarah Palin can win.  The media completely obliterated her in 2008, and there is no indication that Palin has healed her wounds with the public or the media.

What is Palin's approval rating, by the way?

Well for her it would be favorable rating and its pretty bad, though its real high among Republicans.  Democrats and more importantly Independents hate her guts.

That's an interesting point.  If Palin is nominated, she needs some way to appeal to those Independents.

Perhaps she will nominate a moderate Pubbie from New England as her running mate to try to appeal to Indies?  Snowe and Collins are not viable, due to their votes for the Stimulus, so maybe another fiscal conservative-social moderate could work?

[Smash255]

I just don't think Sarah Palin can win.  The media completely obliterated her in 2008, and there is no indication that Palin has healed her wounds with the public or the media.

What is Palin's approval rating, by the way?

Well for her it would be favorable rating and its pretty bad, though its real high among Republicans.  Democrats and more importantly Independents hate her guts.

That's an interesting point.  If Palin is nominated, she needs some way to appeal to those Independents.

Perhaps she will nominate a moderate Pubbie from New England as her running mate to try to appeal to Indies?  Snowe and Collins are not viable, due to their votes for the Stimulus, so maybe another fiscal conservative-social moderate could work?

Palin would wind up picking another far right wing extremist.  No self respecting moderate would want to go near her.  Not to mention that the vast majority of the social moderates you speak of have already been kicked out of the party.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I just don't think Sarah Palin can win.  The media completely obliterated her in 2008, and there is no indication that Palin has healed her wounds with the public or the media.

What is Palin's approval rating, by the way?

Well for her it would be favorable rating and its pretty bad, though its real high among Republicans.  Democrats and more importantly Independents hate her guts.

That's an interesting point.  If Palin is nominated, she needs some way to appeal to those Independents.

Perhaps she will nominate a moderate Pubbie from New England as her running mate to try to appeal to Indies?  Snowe and Collins are not viable, due to their votes for the Stimulus, so maybe another fiscal conservative-social moderate could work?

Palin would wind up picking another far right wing extremist.  No self respecting moderate would want to go near her.  Not to mention that the vast majority of the social moderates you speak of have already been kicked out of the party.

I agree with this.  The only likely moderate Republican to get on board with her would be maybe Scott Brown, but Palin is probably too naive and would pick a far-right Republican like Mike Huckabee or, heaven forbid, Tom Coburn.

She's not an automatic loss for the GOP, but she's a real hazard at the very least.

[Ronnie]

I just don't think Sarah Palin can win.  The media completely obliterated her in 2008, and there is no indication that Palin has healed her wounds with the public or the media.

What is Palin's approval rating, by the way?

Well for her it would be favorable rating and its pretty bad, though its real high among Republicans.  Democrats and more importantly Independents hate her guts.

That's an interesting point.  If Palin is nominated, she needs some way to appeal to those Independents.

Perhaps she will nominate a moderate Pubbie from New England as her running mate to try to appeal to Indies?  Snowe and Collins are not viable, due to their votes for the Stimulus, so maybe another fiscal conservative-social moderate could work?

Palin would wind up picking another far right wing extremist.  No self respecting moderate would want to go near her.  Not to mention that the vast majority of the social moderates you speak of have already been kicked out of the party.

I agree with this.  The only likely moderate Republican to get on board with her would be maybe Scott Brown, but Palin is probably too naive and would pick a far-right Republican like Mike Huckabee or, heaven forbid, Tom Coburn.

She's not an automatic loss for the GOP, but she's a real hazard at the very least.

I disagree.  Palin is not as dumb as a sack a bricks (despite what the media says), and knows what it takes to win a presidential election.  Huckabee and Coburn add nothing to the ticket, since they don't rally a specific base; that's essentially what a "running mate" is all about.  She may not nominate a moderate Republican from New England, but I doubt that she will nominate a Right Leaning Evangelical Christian.

[Mr. Morden]

Her latest statement on the decision of whether to run:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/magazine/21palin-t.html

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Meanwhile, The Daily Caller finds a slew of people at Tea Party events who like Palin, but not as president.  These are of course the people she'll have to convince if she wants to win the nomination, as she has a ~75% or so favorable rating among Republicans, but is only the first choice of ~20% of Republicans for prez:

http://dailycaller.com/2010/11/17/palin-a-hero-to-many-in-tea-party-but-not-their-pick-for-president/

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[Bull Moose Base]

Her latest statement on the decision of whether to run:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/21/magazine/21palin-t.html

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Meanwhile, The Daily Caller finds a slew of people at Tea Party events who like Palin, but not as president.  These are of course the people she'll have to convince if she wants to win the nomination, as she has a ~75% or so favorable rating among Republicans, but is only the first choice of ~20% of Republicans for prez:

http://dailycaller.com/2010/11/17/palin-a-hero-to-many-in-tea-party-but-not-their-pick-for-president/

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I enjoy that these women said they don't have confidence in Palin and find her too divisive. Right after flying across the country (and sleeping outside in chairs for two days) to see Glenn Beck.  If Palin runs, she could have a bit of an awkward time justifying her candidacy.

[Brittain33]

What happens when Palin runs? I'm not sure we've ever seen a candidate like her before.

Strengths:
1. Dedicated support of a minority of active Republicans who will be overrepresented in caucus states.
2. Ability to break down barriers and draw in people not traditionally involved in politics.
3. Unique profile for a nominee.
4. Has earned chits with high-profile Republicans in early primary states.
5. No clear anti-Palin candidate with more charisma than her.

Weaknesses:
1. She doesn't trust people easily; her inner circle is disorganized and inexperienced. Not at all ready to run a presidential campaign and won't ever be.
2. A majority of Republican voters, I think, don't want her as the nominee, and a large number of them are not going to change their minds.
3. Potential to implode spectacularly.
4. I doubt she can fundraise proactively and doesn't have the wealth like Romney to do it herself.

The million dollar question for me is, if she starts off strong enough in the primaries, she attracts enough competent staff and is willing to work with them that she can build a competent campaign. She may never be a competent candidate, but she has the potential to replace her current duct-tape-and-pinky-swears organization with something professional if enough Republicans decide to swallow their pride and back the winner. I do think that the party will get behind her reluctantly if she gets the nomination... but can she get to the point where she looks like a contender to win the nomination.

[Meeker]

I've become convinced over the past few weeks that she's going to run.

With Romeny and Gingrich both obviously going to get in, the only big question mark that remains is Huckabee (who I would be inclined to say isn't going to).

[Bull Moose Base]

I've become convinced over the past few weeks that she's going to run.

With Romeny and Gingrich both obviously going to get in, the only big question mark that remains is Huckabee (who I would be inclined to say isn't going to).

I think there's still maybe a 1 in 3 chance she doesn't run.  I would have put it more like 50-50 after Murkowski won but then she had a slew of strong primary polls right after that.

I don't think she or Huckabee will announce either way before next August.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

brittain33, in your weaknesses column can we add "extremely polarizing within her own party and across the board" (maybe that's what you mean in one of those on your list) , and "a load of personal family baggage"?