PA: PPP: Toomey up 5% and over 50%

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 46%

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Final nail in the coffin.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

No change from the other poll, except in demographics. So the Sestak surge in PPP's last poll was very artificial and based on a hyper-optimistic Democratic turnout model. Yawn.

Is anyone really surprised by this poll?

[N.i.K.]

Is anyone really surprised by this poll?

Not I. This is pretty close to how I see the race going on Election night, although this is probably reassuring to the Toomey camp. Due to the wave, Toomey will probably be the most conservative Pennsylvania senator in a generation. A swing of six works out well.

[Ronnie]

Is anyone really surprised by this poll?

Not I. This is pretty close to how I see the race going on Election night, although this is probably reassuring to the Toomey camp. Due to the wave, Toomey will probably be the most conservative Pennsylvania senator in a generation. A swing of six works out well.

Even more conservative than Santorum?  I doubt it.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Toomey had a more conservative voting record than DeMint in the house.  But he does have a very different tone and emphasizes very different issues than Santorum.

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

It's hard to determine who's more conservative than who because there are so many definitions of conservative.

[N.i.K.]

Is anyone really surprised by this poll?

Not I. This is pretty close to how I see the race going on Election night, although this is probably reassuring to the Toomey camp. Due to the wave, Toomey will probably be the most conservative Pennsylvania senator in a generation. A swing of six works out well.

Even more conservative than Santorum?  I doubt it.

Oh, yeah, forgot about him. Not sure how they compare, but Santorum seems to be a lot more outspoken. Well, at least the most conservative occupying this seat, definitely more so then Schweiker and Specter in comparison to the national environment. I do think Toomey is more to the right, though.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

American Conservative Lifetime Rating
Toomey: 97%
Santorum 88%


Yea, its very hard to measure as Toomey is not an agressive rhetorical culture warrior and is more concerned about fiscal issues.

[Umengus]

Party id: D: 46 % R: 44 % I: 10 % (D +2)

[Whacker77]

It remains to be seen how Toomey would operate, but I never much cared for Santorum.  He always seemed to much about himself.  Robert Novak always called him boorish.

[Beet]

Why is Arlen Specter doing even worse in this poll than Sestak? Let's see. Sestak is a two term Congressman elected in 2006. Specter is a 30 year Senator, who used to be a Republican, who won by 10 points in 2004. Specter should be doing a lot better on account of his name recognition, the relationships he's built with the state after so many years, and that he is more moderate than Sestak. I mean, I understand if he loses out of voter discontent, but why wouldn't Sestak lose by even more?

[Senator Ben]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2010-10-31

Summary: D: 46%, R: 51%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Keystone Phil]

I mean, I understand if he loses out of voter discontent, but why wouldn't Sestak lose by even more?

People finally had enough of Arlen being all about Arlen. That's not rhetoric either. That "...enabled me to be re-electeeeeed" line will live on in Pennsylvania politics for generations. I couldn't tell you how many non-political people still quote that line.

Sestak comes across as a very likable person. I've said that from the very beginning. He also plays up the moderate image thanks in large part to his military background. He's also been trying to portray himself as an outsider thanks to his service. He's not a Congressman in the eyes of the campaign. Everything is about "Admiral Sestak" from the ads down to the campaign t-shirts.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I'm not sure if the comparison between PPP and Rasmussen's final polls will reveal much. A lot of them seem pretty similar.

It's a shame PPP kind of got our hopes up with that last one though.

[Sam Spade]

I'm not sure if the comparison between PPP and Rasmussen's final polls will reveal much. A lot of them seem pretty similar.

In PA, the polls normally work quite well.  Expecting them to be around the same is typical.  I think there's a point or two too much black turnout in this poll, but that's not really important.

[Holmes]

Pennsylvania continues its streak of less than mediocre senators... Santorum, Specter, Casey, Toomey...

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Thought: this poll was conducted on Halloween weekend. Not that it matters much but there could be a slight under-sampling of youths and adults with kids because of it.

[Keystone Phil]

Thought: this poll was conducted on Halloween weekend. Not that it matters much but there could be a slight under-sampling of youths and adults with kids because of it.

...is this serious?

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The final Quinnipiac essentially agrees with PPP, Rasmussen and the last tracking poll.