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| | | |-+  Alaska: PPP sez Miller 37, Murkowski 30, McAdams 30
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Author Topic: Alaska: PPP sez Miller 37, Murkowski 30, McAdams 30  (Read 3102 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: October 31, 2010, 10:28:23 pm »
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I may post it on the board in a second.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AK_1031503.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2010, 10:31:53 pm »
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omg, come on McAdams.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2010, 10:32:29 pm »
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YAY!

(Thank God.  I was terrified about this race).
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« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2010, 10:34:17 pm »
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Miller's favorables are brutal, but gets almost all of the voters that support him.  Those that don't like Miller are split between McAdams and Murkowski.
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« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2010, 10:34:34 pm »
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Uh, okay.
I'll read the details on this poll before making assumptions. It's sad this is a three-way, as I really think McAdams/Murkowski would be winning if this was a two-day. 60% of Alaskans are FF's.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2010, 10:36:36 pm »
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Uh, okay.
I'll read the details on this poll before making assumptions. It's sad this is a three-way, as I really think McAdams/Murkowski would be winning if this was a two-day. 60% of Alaskans are FF's.

Assuming this poll is accurate (which I have my questions given that this is Alaska), that's an interesting assumption you make.  What do you have to base this on, other than your own wishes?
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Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2010, 10:39:04 pm »
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YAY!

(Thank God.  I was terrified about this race).

I wouldn't get excited yet. Its still a poll of ALASKA. Tongue


My feeling about this is the Dems in Washington smelt fresh blood here and jumped in (according to CBS News that is) compared to FL where they tried to push Meek out for Crist. The effect of this will be in my opinion to deprive Lisa of much needed Bush country votes and some of Anchorage's vote. So McAdams' surge is to Miller's benefit. 


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tmthforu94
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« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2010, 10:40:19 pm »
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Uh, okay.
I'll read the details on this poll before making assumptions. It's sad this is a three-way, as I really think McAdams/Murkowski would be winning if this was a two-day. 60% of Alaskans are FF's.

Assuming this poll is accurate (which I have my questions given that this is Alaska), that's an interesting assumption you make.  What do you have to base this on, other than your own wishes?
Because clearly the only people who are supporting Miller are those who have a favorable opinion of him, which is less than 40%. Murkowski is taking Democratic and Independent voters away that would normally vote McAdams. Miller would gain some from Murkowski Republicans, but I still think McAdams would have the overall edge. In a poll done by Rasmussen between the two, he was ahead by 6. His favorables were also higher then.

Also interesting, 58% have an unfavorable view of Sarah Palin. Tongue
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2010, 10:41:44 pm »
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Best thing about this poll is that that vile woman looks set to finish third.
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Carlos Danger
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« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2010, 10:46:08 pm »
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Even better news (for me).

It mentions Murkowski by name.  It says the respondees voted 54-40 McCain (actual was 59-38).  It has the partisan breakdown as 21D-32R-48I, while 2008 was 20D-37R-43I.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2010, 11:02:47 pm by BEWARE OF WARREN REDLICH! »Logged

Sam Spade
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2010, 10:51:07 pm »
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Even better news (for me).

It mentions Murkowski by name. 

No it doesn't.  Read the twitter post that they made.

Quote
It says the respondees voted 54-40 Obama (actual was 59-38).  It has the partisan breakdown as 21D-32R-48I, while 2008 was 20D-37R-43I.

In any Alaska poll, I always assume that the Republican is probably underestimated by at least a few points, so this is not at all surprising.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2010, 10:53:36 pm »
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It says the respondees voted 54-40 Obama (actual was 59-38). 

54-40 Obama?
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2010, 10:55:24 pm »
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Cheesy
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« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2010, 11:59:58 pm »
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Miller favorability: 36
Murkowski approval: 37
Obama approval: 38
Begich approval: 39

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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2010, 12:06:14 am »
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I give up on trying to figure this one out. It'd be hilarious and awesome if McAdams won though.
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2010, 12:10:58 am »
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Call me stupid, but Ill risk it and will predict a McAdams win in my final prediction.

Miller and Murkowski will wipe each other out in the minds of AK voters and McAdams has a good chance to come out on top.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2010, 12:16:13 am »
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Intrade currently has Miller up big, but it's very volatile on this race:

Miller 73.0
Murkowski 26.0
McAdams 10.1

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« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2010, 12:25:49 am »
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Whether Miller wins or not, he's going to be pretty overwhelmingly rejected by Alaskan voters, unless the polls are very wrong.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2010, 12:36:52 am »
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Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2010, 12:47:51 am by Mr. Morden »Logged

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Joe Republic
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« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2010, 01:05:06 am »

Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.


New York, 1970, when James Buckley won it for the Conservative Party with 38.8%.

The election in Connecticut the same year also came close, with Lowell Weicker winning with 41.7%.
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« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2010, 01:59:53 am »
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I actually hope Murkowski wins if McAdams doesn't, because then hopefully Miller ends up as the nominee in 2014 against Begich. Probably the only way Begich can be re-elected.
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« Reply #21 on: November 01, 2010, 03:50:11 am »
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Wow, only 2% undecided? Not a lot of people waiting until the last moment to make a strategic vote here. Also, only 1% for someone else? There's got to be a write-in candidate to appeal to everyone with so many running.
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« Reply #22 on: November 01, 2010, 03:56:04 am »
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Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.



There's a good chance that New York 1970 wins.
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Whacker77
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« Reply #23 on: November 01, 2010, 09:46:57 am »
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I actually hope Murkowski wins if McAdams doesn't, because then hopefully Miller ends up as the nominee in 2014 against Begich. Probably the only way Begich can be re-elected.

I think Sean Parnell will be itching to go after Begich.
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« Reply #24 on: November 01, 2010, 02:34:41 pm »
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I wouldn't believe this poll, nor would I believe any poll coming out of this race. Why? Here's two reasons:

1. It's incredibly difficult to accurately poll in Alaska
2. It's incredibly difficult to poll a well known write-in candidate

Nothing would surprise me in this race. But if any pollster is up to the challenge of polling this race, it's PPP.

Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.



There's a good chance that New York 1970 wins.

Yes, New York 1970 does win.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2010, 02:36:26 pm by albaleman »Logged
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