Alaska: PPP sez Miller 37, Murkowski 30, McAdams 30

[Sam Spade]

I may post it on the board in a second.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AK_1031503.pdf

[xavier110]

omg, come on McAdams.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

YAY!

(Thank God.  I was terrified about this race).

[Smash255]

Miller's favorables are brutal, but gets almost all of the voters that support him.  Those that don't like Miller are split between McAdams and Murkowski.

[Jayhawker]

Uh, okay.
I'll read the details on this poll before making assumptions. It's sad this is a three-way, as I really think McAdams/Murkowski would be winning if this was a two-day. 60% of Alaskans are FF's.

[Sam Spade]

Uh, okay.
I'll read the details on this poll before making assumptions. It's sad this is a three-way, as I really think McAdams/Murkowski would be winning if this was a two-day. 60% of Alaskans are FF's.

Assuming this poll is accurate (which I have my questions given that this is Alaska), that's an interesting assumption you make.  What do you have to base this on, other than your own wishes?

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

YAY!

(Thank God.  I was terrified about this race).

I wouldn't get excited yet. Its still a poll of ALASKA.


My feeling about this is the Dems in Washington smelt fresh blood here and jumped in (according to CBS News that is) compared to FL where they tried to push Meek out for Crist. The effect of this will be in my opinion to deprive Lisa of much needed Bush country votes and some of Anchorage's vote. So McAdams' surge is to Miller's benefit. 

[Jayhawker]

Uh, okay.
I'll read the details on this poll before making assumptions. It's sad this is a three-way, as I really think McAdams/Murkowski would be winning if this was a two-day. 60% of Alaskans are FF's.

Assuming this poll is accurate (which I have my questions given that this is Alaska), that's an interesting assumption you make.  What do you have to base this on, other than your own wishes?

Because clearly the only people who are supporting Miller are those who have a favorable opinion of him, which is less than 40%. Murkowski is taking Democratic and Independent voters away that would normally vote McAdams. Miller would gain some from Murkowski Republicans, but I still think McAdams would have the overall edge. In a poll done by Rasmussen between the two, he was ahead by 6. His favorables were also higher then.

Also interesting, 58% have an unfavorable view of Sarah Palin.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Best thing about this poll is that that vile woman looks set to finish third.

[crypto-fascist superhero]

Even better news (for me).

It mentions Murkowski by name.  It says the respondees voted 54-40 McCain (actual was 59-38).  It has the partisan breakdown as 21D-32R-48I, while 2008 was 20D-37R-43I.

[Sam Spade]

Even better news (for me).

It mentions Murkowski by name. 

No it doesn't.  Read the twitter post that they made.

It says the respondees voted 54-40 Obama (actual was 59-38).  It has the partisan breakdown as 21D-32R-48I, while 2008 was 20D-37R-43I.

In any Alaska poll, I always assume that the Republican is probably underestimated by at least a few points, so this is not at all surprising.

[Mr. Morden]

It says the respondees voted 54-40 Obama (actual was 59-38). 

54-40 Obama?

[Free Palestine]

[shua]

Miller favorability: 36
Murkowski approval: 37
Obama approval: 38
Begich approval: 39

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

I give up on trying to figure this one out. It'd be hilarious and awesome if McAdams won though.

[Tender Branson]

Call me stupid, but I´ll risk it and will predict a McAdams win in my final prediction.

Miller and Murkowski will wipe each other out in the minds of AK voters and McAdams has a good chance to come out on top.

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade currently has Miller up big, but it's very volatile on this race:

Miller 73.0
Murkowski 26.0
McAdams 10.1

[State Comptroller Atkins]

Whether Miller wins or not, he's going to be pretty overwhelmingly rejected by Alaskan voters, unless the polls are very wrong.

[Mr. Morden]

Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.

[Joe Republic]

Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.

New York, 1970, when James Buckley won it for the Conservative Party with 38.8%.

The election in Connecticut the same year also came close, with Lowell Weicker winning with 41.7%.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I actually hope Murkowski wins if McAdams doesn't, because then hopefully Miller ends up as the nominee in 2014 against Begich. Probably the only way Begich can be re-elected.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Wow, only 2% undecided? Not a lot of people waiting until the last moment to make a strategic vote here. Also, only 1% for someone else? There's got to be a write-in candidate to appeal to everyone with so many running.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.

There's a good chance that New York 1970 wins.

[Whacker77]

I actually hope Murkowski wins if McAdams doesn't, because then hopefully Miller ends up as the nominee in 2014 against Begich. Probably the only way Begich can be re-elected.

I think Sean Parnell will be itching to go after Begich.

[albaleman]

I wouldn't believe this poll, nor would I believe any poll coming out of this race. Why? Here's two reasons:

1. It's incredibly difficult to accurately poll in Alaska
2. It's incredibly difficult to poll a well known write-in candidate

Nothing would surprise me in this race. But if any pollster is up to the challenge of polling this race, it's PPP.

Incidentally, when was the last time someone won a Senate race with <40% of the vote?

EDIT: I just quickly looked back through the last 30 years of Senate races to 1980, and didn't find any such cases.  I'm too lazy to go back earlier than that.  I think the closest case may actually be Coleman vs. Franken 2008, where both candidates were at 42%.

There's a good chance that New York 1970 wins.

Yes, New York 1970 does win.