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Author Topic: WA: Public Policy Polling: Rossi (R) surges ahead in final poll  (Read 4574 times)
The Vorlon
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« Reply #25 on: November 01, 2010, 02:21:41 pm »
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It's weird that PPP is showing Rossi ahead and Rasmussen is showing Murray ahead, considering it's usually the other way around.

The Rasmussen is actually a Fox/Rasmussen which differs ever so slightly in that the Rasmussen Rasmussen whacks the undecided one more time.  

Either way, they are both well within the margin of error, but the last Rasmussen Rasmussen had Rossi up 1%.

Too close to call.. just the way I like em Smiley
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albaleman
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« Reply #26 on: November 01, 2010, 02:23:13 pm »
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I don't completely believe this poll. After all, even Fixed News has Murray up. I think I need to see another poll before I call this one for Rossi.
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Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #27 on: November 01, 2010, 02:30:06 pm »
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I say that Rossi wins by ~30,000.

Rossi wins, initially anyway, by about 100 votes less than the net change in King County after the "recount".... Smiley

But seriously.....

Race is damn close, I have Murray barely holding on, but it's a 52/48 thing... tossing a coin is at least as accurate as I can be on this one.

Does King County have an extra 30,000 Murray ballots at their disposal? I thought it was rare if a recount changes the result by more than 1,000 votes.
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« Reply #28 on: November 01, 2010, 03:06:30 pm »
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YouGov says Murray is ahead among likely voters 50.2 to Rossi's 47.5%

Is this old news?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #29 on: November 01, 2010, 04:21:13 pm »
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I say that Rossi wins by ~30,000.

Rossi wins, initially anyway, by about 100 votes less than the net change in King County after the "recount".... Smiley

But seriously.....

Race is damn close, I have Murray barely holding on, but it's a 52/48 thing... tossing a coin is at least as accurate as I can be on this one.

Does King County have an extra 30,000 Murray ballots at their disposal? I thought it was rare if a recount changes the result by more than 1,000 votes.

Ya, but there are "re tabulations", sometimes those ballot boxes and/or voting machines that got "lost" suddenly get found.

The President IS from Chicago after all... Smiley

FWIW, I think PPP had a bad night on this poll, it's just a tad off to the GOP side in a few places.

Really, really close this one... we get to wait for all the mail in ballots to arrive! - Should know by January or so.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2010, 04:22:51 pm by The Vorlon »Logged

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Meeker
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« Reply #30 on: November 01, 2010, 04:24:38 pm »
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In all seriousness, this will probably take until at least Friday.
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J. J.
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« Reply #31 on: November 01, 2010, 05:01:58 pm »
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McClatchy has Murry 49, Rossi 48.

Very close, virtual tie.
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« Reply #32 on: November 01, 2010, 05:06:41 pm »
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...motherf'er. It's PPP, too - post-Kos PPP.

And Fox has Murray up by 2.

Have you every stopped to consider that pollsters might be more concerned about their reputation rather than coming up with hopeful results for their fellow partisans? R2000 was a ridiculous polling unit and they weren't even told to come up with good results for the Dems by Kos. They just did it on their own. I am sure PPP won't repeat that same mistake, while at the same time ruining their reputation. You guys get a bit too paranoid whilst talking about Kos.
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« Reply #33 on: November 01, 2010, 05:11:39 pm »
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I find it a bit strange how Rossi accumulated a lead in early voters while he was behind most of the time.
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« Reply #34 on: November 01, 2010, 05:16:57 pm »
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I find it a bit strange how Rossi accumulated a lead in early voters while he was behind most of the time.

The change could have occured between polls, or most of Rossi's deficit came from those who hadn't voted yet.
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« Reply #35 on: November 01, 2010, 06:41:54 pm »
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One poll shows a Murray lead of 4% before the election and it's "too close to call" or something, but when Rossi's up by 2 in one poll Democrats are like "Oh my fkn GOD!  SHE IS SO SCREWED!"  


Snap out of it.  Murray's not screwed. It's going to be a close race, either candidate could win.  

Thank you for being a voice of reason.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #36 on: November 01, 2010, 08:21:11 pm »
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I'm still betting on Murray holding this one, by a narrow margin. I would love to see Rossi win, but I don't think it is in the cards.

One poll shows a Murray lead of 4% before the election and it's "too close to call" or something, but when Rossi's up by 2 in one poll Democrats are like "Oh my fkn GOD!  SHE IS SO SCREWED!" 


Snap out of it.  Murray's not screwed. It's going to be a close race, either candidate could win. 

Thank you for being a voice of reason.

PPP, for some reason or another, is held as the word of god by most people here. I don't really see what makes it so special, other then a tendency to show trends. PPP has a tendency to be volatile.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #37 on: November 01, 2010, 09:00:33 pm »
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They've been pretty accurate in most of the primaries so far, and those are more difficult to poll than the general.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #38 on: November 01, 2010, 10:16:20 pm »
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One poll shows a Murray lead of 4% before the election and it's "too close to call" or something, but when Rossi's up by 2 in one poll Democrats are like "Oh my fkn GOD!  SHE IS SO SCREWED!" 


Snap out of it.  Murray's not screwed. It's going to be a close race, either candidate could win. 

Thank you for being a voice of reason.

PPP, for some reason or another, is held as the word of god by most people here. I don't really see what makes it so special, other then a tendency to show trends. PPP has a tendency to be volatile.
They were generally very accurate in the primaries they polled. They have a good polling record. And they release their data and are very transparent in their work.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #39 on: November 01, 2010, 10:32:48 pm »
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One poll shows a Murray lead of 4% before the election and it's "too close to call" or something, but when Rossi's up by 2 in one poll Democrats are like "Oh my fkn GOD!  SHE IS SO SCREWED!" 


Snap out of it.  Murray's not screwed. It's going to be a close race, either candidate could win. 

Thank you for being a voice of reason.

PPP, for some reason or another, is held as the word of god by most people here. I don't really see what makes it so special, other then a tendency to show trends. PPP has a tendency to be volatile.
They were generally very accurate in the primaries they polled. They have a good polling record. And they release their data and are very transparent in their work.

True, but it seems that they are treated as the go-to poll, and I don't like having a class-A poll. Wink Just my mindset. Gut and Brain say Murray is leading, doesn't mean they're wrong, but I have difficulty seeing Rossi's victory.

I can hope, though.
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« Reply #40 on: November 02, 2010, 12:25:35 am »
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PPP is a solid polling organization.  Nevertheless, four other recent polls have shown a lead for Murray -- YouGov, Rasmussen, Marist and Washington. 

It is, admittedly, interesting that PPP's last poll had Rossi up by 2 while POR-Rasmussen's last had Murray up by 2.  Reflective of the topsy-turvy polling in this race.

I still think Murray's fundamentals are strong and she will win.
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