MA: Poll: Bellwether town of Waltham prefers Gov. Patrick (D)

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

STATE HOUSE, BOSTON, NOV. 1, 2010…. Gov. Deval Patrick holds a seven-point edge over Republican rival Charles Baker in a bellwether poll released Monday by Suffolk University that turned to Waltham voters for help predicting Tuesday’s gubernatorial election.

Patrick received 47 percent of the vote in the Boston suburb compared with 40 percent for Baker. Treasurer Tim Cahill, an independent, took 9 percent and Green-Rainbow party candidate Jill Stein finished with 1 percent.

The poll, taken over the weekend, showed that just 3 percent of voters in Waltham were undecided. The final results included voters who were committed or leaning toward a candidate, as well as undecided voters who were asked to state a preference.

The overall undecided population in Waltham – 15 percent of those surveyed – broke strongly for Baker when pressed to make up their mind.

[Brittain33]

Waltham is a bellwether? Huh.

[Eraserhead]

Umm... okay? It's gonna be a long wait, friends.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Waltham is a bellwether? Huh.

Personally, I think it's ridiculous to call Waltham a bellwether too. Considering how fluid the map is, it's ridiculous to call any town a bellwether. The Brown '10 path to victory was quite different from the Romney '02 path to victory, which isn't even recognizable when compared to the Weld '90 path to victory.

And besides, there's no real challenge to Ed Markey for the House race (unlike, say, the challenge to Barney Frank), so turnout is likely to be lower there, on average, than in MA-04, MA-05, MA-06, and MA-10.

The only interesting thing here is that undecideds are breaking "strongly" for Baker when pushed, which could make for an interesting night.

[Brittain33]

Patrick losing is probably the only possible event which I think still has the potential to upset me tonight--maybe also if we lose the Senate.

[Linus Van Pelt]

What is the point of polling a bellwether town? I can see looking at its actual results when early results from the rest of the state may be disproportionately from one party's base region or another, but it's not like a poll is going to be a more reliable indicator than a poll of the whole state with the same margin of error.

[Verily]

What is the point of polling a bellwether town? I can see looking at its actual results when early results from the rest of the state may be disproportionately from one party's base region or another, but it's not like a poll is going to be a more reliable indicator than a poll of the whole state with the same margin of error.

Headlines and the vanities of local media.

[Roemerista]

I would trade every GOP pick up for Charlie Baker winning.  Hell, I would trade my left foot for Charlie Baker. It is simply unimaginable for me that even Mass is coming out so heavily for Deval. Its probably because of O'Donnell, dragging down even the sane, and competent with her up in the North.

[Brittain33]

Waltham voted 50%-41% Patrick-Baker, compared to 49%-42% statewide.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I would trade every GOP pick up for Charlie Baker winning.  Hell, I would trade my left foot for Charlie Baker. It is simply unimaginable for me that even Mass is coming out so heavily for Deval. Its probably because of O'Donnell, dragging down even the sane, and competent with her up in the North.

Overheard last night:

"Deval was beatable. Baker was a lousy candidate."

"But who else was there to run?"

"..."

"Exactly."

[Eraserhead]

I applaud the commonwealth's wise decision.

[cinyc]

What is the point of polling a bellwether town? I can see looking at its actual results when early results from the rest of the state may be disproportionately from one party's base region or another, but it's not like a poll is going to be a more reliable indicator than a poll of the whole state with the same margin of error.

I like Suffolk's bellwether polls.  It serves as a check on normal statewide polling.  And often, Suffolk will poll more than one bellwether town.  The bellwethers, taken in the aggregate, are rarely wrong.  When the dust settles, I will update my Senate PVI bellwether post to see how well the bellwethers worked.  In the close races I watched, they didn't fail.  Toomey took 3 of the 4 PA bellwethers; Kirk took Rock Island; Bennet won the 3 CO bellwethers, and Murray leads all 4 WA bellwethers - and the state.

Suffolk was right on the money calling Waltham a bellwether.  Their CT bellwether polling was a bit off compared to actual results - perhaps due to bellwether selection.