NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Linus Van Pelt]

What's up with the senate special in Niagara County? Unlike Cuomo, Gillibrand only slightly underperformed Schumer in the rest of western New York. And even if it's a switch, it's still weird, though for the opposite reason.

Schumer 57 Townsend 41
DioGuardi 69 Gillibrand 30

[Torie]

It looks like the GOP will get 64 seats net, winning IL-08, the Ortiz seat in Texas TX-27 I think (that must be the biggest upset of the night), CA-20, and WA-02.  They have a chance to win 65 seats if they get lucky in CA-11, but that appears less likely than not, unless after those silly 2 or 3 precincts in Santa Clara County which remain out (why haven't they been counted, what is the problem?), and as is likely, Harmer is behind (by 72 projected votes - oh the SOS has all the votes reflected (thanks for bringing that to my attention Johnny Longtorso), and McNerney's margin is 121 votes), he makes it up with the late absentees and military ballots. I suppose that is possible. This one might be up in the air for weeks.

In WA-2, per my spreadsheet projection, Koster has about a 1,700 projected pad when all the projected votes are in, and that will be very tough to make up with late absentees being that heavily more disproportionately Dem vis a vis what came before in each county. In IL-08, of the remaining projected 2,140 votes out, Bean would have to carry that by 69%, as opposed to the 55.5% she has been getting in Cook County so far (which is the only county with votes out). I don't think so.

[SPQR]

What's going on in CT4?
NyTimes has called it for the Dems,but with 80% in the Republican leads by 100ish votes.Also,it's the district where the votes left to count for the governor's race are.

[Reds4]

Isn't it possible that NY-25 could still go to the GOP as well? Maffei leads by just 2,196 votes. The county that still has to report 40% of their precincts is Wayne and Buerkle has nearly a 3,400 vote lead in that county through the first 60%... I don't know anything about the county so I may be wrong.. but it seems possible for the GOP to pick this one up too.. It should be very close. What does everyone else think?

It looks like the GOP will get 64 seats net, winning IL-08, the Ortiz seat in Texas TX-27 I think (that must be the biggest upset of the night), CA-20, and WA-02.  They have a chance to win 65 seats if they get lucky in CA-11, but that appears less likely than not, unless after those silly 2 or 3 precincts in Santa Clara County which remain out (why haven't they been counted, what is the problem?), and as is likely, Harmer is behind (by 72 projected votes), he makes it up with the late absentees and military ballots. I suppose that is possible. This one might be up in the air for weeks.

In WA-2, per my spreadsheet projection, Koster has about a 1,700 projected pad when all the projected votes are in, and that will be very tough to make up with late absentees being that heavily more disproportionately Dem vis a vis what came before in each county. In IL-08, of the remaining projected 2,140 votes out, Bean would have to carry that by 69%, as opposed to the 55.5% she has been getting in Cook County so far (which is the only county with votes out). I don't think so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it is possible. Probably won't, but possible it be.

[Sam Spade]

It looks like the GOP will get 64 seats net, winning IL-08, the Ortiz seat in Texas TX-27 I think (that must be the biggest upset of the night), CA-20, and WA-02.  They have a chance to win 65 seats if they get lucky in CA-11, but that appears less likely than not, unless after those silly 2 or 3 precincts in Santa Clara County which remain out (why haven't they been counted, what is the problem?), and as is likely, Harmer is behind (by 72 projected votes - oh the SOS has all the votes reflected (thanks for bringing that to my attention Lief), and McNeary's margin is 121 votes), he makes it up with the late absentees and military ballots. I suppose that is possible. This one might be up in the air for weeks.

In WA-2, per my spreadsheet projection, Koster has about a 1,700 projected pad when all the projected votes are in, and that will be very tough to make up with late absentees being that heavily more disproportionately Dem vis a vis what came before in each county. In IL-08, of the remaining projected 2,140 votes out, Bean would have to carry that by 69%, as opposed to the 55.5% she has been getting in Cook County so far (which is the only county with votes out). I don't think so.

You can't predict how Washington comes in - I never do.  TX-27 is over unless there's a box in one of those questionable counties to the west which migrates over.

I agree with your analysis otherwise.  I don't know why WA-9, KY-6, AZ-7 or AZ-8 hasn't been called.

NY-25 is not being called because only 60% of Wayne County is in, which Buerkle is winning 62-38 (or 3400 votes about out of 14.5K).  It's unlikely to change, but since there were 25K votes there in 2010, they're being cautious.

EDIT:  Just missed previous post - mine adds on...

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

What's going on in CT4?
NyTimes has called it for the Dems,but with 80% in the Republican leads by 100ish votes.Also,it's the district where the votes left to count for the governor's race are.

"The numbers we have show me ahead about 5,000 votes in the 16 towns that are not Bridgeport but unfortunately I will lose by a much larger margin than that in Bridgeport," Debicella said.

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yes you are right, Reds4.

                             Buerkle   Maffei   Margin   
Wayne existing        8,925         5,542     3,383   0.6
Wayne projected   14,875         9,237     5,638   
Buerkle gain                                             2,255   
Existing Maffei lead 93,090      95,286      2,196   
Projected Buerkle margin                          59   


Yes, Sam, Larsen is certainly still in the hunt. You are right. He needs to do about 2% better with what remains than he has done with what came before.

            existing     Projected     Diff       Larsen margin  Larsen %
                      per spreadsheet         needed to win  needed to win    
Koster   87,687   137,591   49,904   47,865       0.486            
Larsen   86,258   134,842   48,584   50,623       0.514            
            
                             2,749   98,487     2,758
Koster      50.4%
Larsen      49.6%

So 63-65 net seat GOP gain, with WA-2, NY-25 and CA-11 still in play.

[Skill and Chance]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

That area is turning very liberal, very fast.  It is essentially the Fairfax, VA of the west.  It has probably ceased to be competitive in national elections.

[cinyc]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Yes, the Dems don't control the process in California. In fact, they, along with the Republicans, have absolutely nothing to do with it. What it has most to do with is federal law, and the host of strictures of how districts have to be drawn, that are now statutory in California, and are to be implemented by the independent commission.

The GOP appears to have drawn a royal flush when it comes to the gerrymandering wars. I wonder how much the GOP endeavored to maximize the odds of that particular draw?

On the flip side, Republicans now wont be able to gerrymander Florida with the redistricting proposition that passed. 

[SPQR]

What's going on in CT4?
NyTimes has called it for the Dems,but with 80% in the Republican leads by 100ish votes.Also,it's the district where the votes left to count for the governor's race are.

"The numbers we have show me ahead about 5,000 votes in the 16 towns that are not Bridgeport but unfortunately I will lose by a much larger margin than that in Bridgeport," Debicella said.

Oh,ok
I suppose that's why AP called CT for Malloy,too.

[Smash255]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

It was, not anymore.  Suburban Denver swung pretty heavily Democratic over the last few years, didn't swing back.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Alvin did better than I expected. A solid showing for my favorite Senate candidate!

[Torie]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

Both parties appear to believe that the GOP won both the Long Island and  Buffalo seats, giving the GOP 32 seats, no matter how Westchester turns out, and the GOP needs to win only one of the two seats that it is thought that they will probably win to get a 31-31 tie in the NY State Senate. Am I missing something here Cinyc?

[cinyc]

Alvin Greene got more vote for US Senate than Sharon Angle.

That doesn't mean much.  South Carolina's population is almost double that of Nevada's.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The last two precincts in VA-11 got counted; Connolly wins by 921 votes. That number will probably fluctuate a bit as tabulation errors get corrected, but I'd say he's won.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Alvin Greene got more vote for US Senate than Sharon Angle.

That doesn't mean much.  South Carolina's population is almost double that of Nevada's.

I'm surprised he nearly received 30% of the vote and that he won several counties!

[cinyc]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

b

Both parties appear to believe that the GOP won both the Long Island and  Buffalo seats, giving the GOP 32 seats, no matter how Westchester turns out, and the GOP needs to win only one of the two seats that it is thought that they will probably win to get a 31-31 tie in the NY State Senate. Am I missing something here Cinyc?

I agree about the LI seat, but I'm a little surprised that the Dems think they lost the Buffalo seat.  The Erie County Board of Elections' last numbers had the Dem up by 2,500 - though the AP count differs.  I guess the Erie County Board of Elections is almost as incompetent as Westchester's.  Having only 75% of the vote in the on the next day is inexcusable - almost Bridgeport-level inexcusable.

[Torie]

Is there any state where gerrymandering is important, that the Dems totally control? Did the GOP win back the NY senate? Apparently, the GOP probably did take back the NY state senate.

Maybe, Torie.  We don't know for sure.  The Westchester County Board of Elections is so incompetent that they are only reporting 75% of the county's vote right now.  They show the Democrat leading by 180 with 80% in.  The AP has a tally supposedly showing the Republican in that race up by 2300 with 81% in.

b

Both parties appear to believe that the GOP won both the Long Island and  Buffalo seats, giving the GOP 32 seats, no matter how Westchester turns out, and the GOP needs to win only one of the two seats that it is thought that they will probably win to get a 31-31 tie in the NY State Senate. Am I missing something here Cinyc?

I agree about the LI seat, but I'm a little surprised that the Dems think they lost the Buffalo seat.  The Erie County Board of Elections' last numbers had the Dem up by 2,500 - though the AP count differs.  I guess the Erie County Board of Elections is almost as incompetent as Westchester's.  Having only 75% of the vote in the on the next day is inexcusable - almost Bridgeport-level inexcusable.

They must know where the missing precincts are in Erie County, I guess.

[Torie]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Yes, the Dems don't control the process in California. In fact, they, along with the Republicans, have absolutely nothing to do with it. What it has most to do with is federal law, and the host of strictures of how districts have to be drawn, that are now statutory in California, and are to be implemented by the independent commission.

The GOP appears to have drawn a royal flush when it comes to the gerrymandering wars. I wonder how much the GOP endeavored to maximize the odds of that particular draw?

On the flip side, Republicans now wont be able to gerrymander Florida with the redistricting proposition that passed. 

Yes, and per your post, I looked up in the Miami Herald the story about the proposition. It says lines need respect city and county boundaries (the GOP can handle that without losing too much of its gerrymandering punch, although it might be tough to save Alan West in FL-22), but then the story I read says that in addition, one is not to take partisan considerations into mind. Huh?  How do you enforce that one?  Is it like what porn is to the US Supreme Court (we know it when we see it, or what)?  Or is it just a crummy reporting job, and the prop in fact has in it more specific metrics about the shape of districts, to squeeze out partisanship?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I just got an email today saying the Republicans took control of both the NC House and Senate for the first time since Reconstruction. Not bad.

[Sbane]

McNerney down 23 votes right now. Can you say recount?
BTW, he's not a Blue Dog. Blue Dog Costa seems to have lost (also one of the uncalled races).

Harmer is probably going to lose to the Dem, unless the 2 or 3 precincts out in Santa Clara County are disproportionately Republican, which is possible (somewhere in gated communities in Moraga or something), but unlikely.

Santa Clara
Updated 7 minutes ago
McNerney    4,900 51%
Harmer     4,254 45%
86% of precincts reporting

Now 100% of precincts have reported and Mcnerney won Santa Clara 52-44. Turns out the precincts weren't in some country club in Moraga (especially since the city the district picks up in Santa Clara is Morgan Hill ). I knew Harmer was going down when I saw San Joaquin was within 5 and 100% reported with about half of Alameda still to go. A Republican really needs to win by about 8 or so to win. The only reason this one was close is because Harmer overperformed in the tri valley, especially in Contra Costa county, which is his home county.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, California, but we're not allowed to gerrymander that unfortunately.

Yes, the Dems don't control the process in California. In fact, they, along with the Republicans, have absolutely nothing to do with it. What it has most to do with is federal law, and the host of strictures of how districts have to be drawn, that are now statutory in California, and are to be implemented by the independent commission.

The GOP appears to have drawn a royal flush when it comes to the gerrymandering wars. I wonder how much the GOP endeavored to maximize the odds of that particular draw?

On the flip side, Republicans now wont be able to gerrymander Florida with the redistricting proposition that passed. 

Yes, and per your post, I looked up in the Miami Herald the story about the proposition. It says lines need respect city and county boundaries (the GOP can handle that without losing too much of its gerrymandering punch, although it might be tough to save Alan West in FL-22), but then the story I read says that in addition, one is not to take partisan considerations into mind. Huh?  How do you enforce that one?  Is it like what porn is to the US Supreme Court (we know it when we see it, or what)?  Or is it just a crummy reporting job, and the prop in fact has in it more specific metrics about the shape of districts, to squeeze out partisanship?

Essentially, no more drawing tendrils out of Orange county to make FL-08 safe for Republicans.