NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[nhmagic]

AP called AZ-07 for Grijalva.

That means the bulk of the ballots left to count are in AZ8.

[Sam Spade]

The individual threads have been put together and cleaned up a little.

Please continue the discussion.

[??????????]

The individual threads have been put together and cleaned up a little.

Please continue the discussion.

Sam, not to offend you but this thread is now one big messy CF.

[Meeker]

Larsen's lead in WA-02 has grown to 1,451 with all reporting done for the day. Yesterday he lead by 397. And San Juan County - which Larsen won 65-35 - didn't report today.

In short: Looks like Larsen's going to hold on.

[Torie]

Sam Spade, do you have any idea what percentage the Pubbies got of the Hispanic vote in TX-23 and TX-27?  I would love to see a precinct map of TX-23 in Bexar County.

[Torie]

Anyone else surprised that Ayotte broke 60% and carried every one of NH's counties?  I certainly didn't see that coming.

Almost shocking really. Hodes in the debate I saw was presentable.

[Torie]

Earlier I said there were about 30000 ballots left in Pima County.  Actually the amount of ballots left is somewhere around 47,000 (about 32000 early voting ballots and 15000 provisional ballots).  Thats why they arent calling AZ7 or 8 yet.  They have until November 12th to count all of those ballots.  Most of these votes will come from the more populous area of Pima county which is AZ8.  Also, even though Pima and early ballots ran better for Giffords on election night, it could be that she already got the bulk of what she was going to get.

Current Totals:
AZ7
Grijalva: 49.39% / McClung: 44.94%, McClung Deficit 5980 votes
AZ8
Giffords: 48.58% / Kelly: 47.41%, Kelly Deficit 3055

Probably not doable for McClung, but definitely still doable for Kelly.  

Provisionals tend to have a decided Dem lean.

[ucscgaldamez]

Every thread that I have wanted to post has been linked to other threads! At this rate, I will never get my own thread. heck, even this post may be deleted.

[Sam Spade]

Sam Spade, do you have any idea what percentage the Pubbies got of the Hispanic vote in TX-23 and TX-27?  I would love to see a precinct map of TX-23 in Bexar County.

Won't know now.  Not until much later.

With Perry, there wasn't much change from 2008 (35%).  At the lower statewide levels (where the GOP got 60%-64% roughly), it was probably more like 40% (maybe Abbott (64%) got closer to 45%). 

FWIW, the exit poll said Perry got 38% and the movements in Hispanic areas not within counties was minimal from 2008 or between the statewide races.  I'd have to look precinct-by-precinct at the suburban/urban Hispanics.

The big shift was in suburban Texas - other statewide Republicans ran at Bush 2004 levels, whereas Perry ran at 2008 levels.

In rural east and central Texas (Southern-settled areas), everyone ran the same, at all levels of the ballot.  Those numbers were virtually identical to 2008.  In the German rural areas, Perry ran at 2008 levels, the other candidates ran at 2004 levels.

This is a gross generalization, but it's pretty accurate.

[Torie]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

[Sam Spade]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

Before Bush, Texas Hispanics were the most Democratic in the nation.

[nhmagic]

Earlier I said there were about 30000 ballots left in Pima County.  Actually the amount of ballots left is somewhere around 47,000 (about 32000 early voting ballots and 15000 provisional ballots).  Thats why they arent calling AZ7 or 8 yet.  They have until November 12th to count all of those ballots.  Most of these votes will come from the more populous area of Pima county which is AZ8.  Also, even though Pima and early ballots ran better for Giffords on election night, it could be that she already got the bulk of what she was going to get.

Current Totals:
AZ7
Grijalva: 49.39% / McClung: 44.94%, McClung Deficit 5980 votes
AZ8
Giffords: 48.58% / Kelly: 47.41%, Kelly Deficit 3055

Probably not doable for McClung, but definitely still doable for Kelly.  

Provisionals tend to have a decided Dem lean.

Yeah thats true, though in that particular district (border) I can see a lot of them being thrown out.

[Sam Spade]

Anyone else surprised that Ayotte broke 60% and carried every one of NH's counties?  I certainly didn't see that coming.

Almost shocking really. Hodes in the debate I saw was presentable.

NH does those types of wild swings (see 2006).  Actually, with that result, it's more surprising that Lynch didn't lose.

[Torie]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

Before Bush, Texas Hispanics were the most Democratic in the nation.

That is an interesting thought - that Bush's popularity with Hispanics relatively speaking, had staying power at least in Texas for subsequent GOP candidates.

Do we have any idea what the percentage of voters in TX-23 and TX-27 were Hispanic?  If we knew that, and assuming (I assume a reasonable assumption) that 75% of the Anglo voters in these two CD's voted for the GOP candidate (would you pick another percentage for Anglos?), we could impute the percentage of the GOP take of Hispanic voters this time for each of these two CD's.

[Sam Spade]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

Before Bush, Texas Hispanics were the most Democratic in the nation.

That is an interesting thought - that Bush's popularity with Hispanics relatively speaking, had staying power at least in Texas for subsequent GOP candidates.

Do we have any idea what the percentage of voters in TX-23 and TX-27 were Hispanic?  If we knew that, and assuming (I assume a reasonable assumption) that 75% of the Anglo voters in these two CD's voted for the GOP candidate (would you pick another percentage for Anglos?), we could impute the percentage of the GOP take of Hispanic voters this time for each of these two CD's.

75% is a fair call.  Though based on what I've been seeing in other results, it may be closer to 80% (remember that Perry got 69% of whites according to exit poll and Farenthold ran a couple of points better than his percentages - with the further note that a good chunk of the whites who vote Dem live in the major urban areas).

Adults-wise, TX-23 is 30.0% White, 65.1% Hispanic (there's about 3% blacks there).  TX-27 is 27.6% White, 68.1% Hispanic (with 3% blacks also).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Washington has been called for Murray with 80% reporting. I'm still not 100% convinced about this one, but Rossi would need to win the remaining vote by over 55% to win the race.

[minionofmidas]

Using NYT as my source, they are

NY-25 (Republican, Ann Marie Buerkle, ahead)
IL-8 (Republican, Joe Walsh, ahead)
VA-11 (Democrat, Gerald Connolly, ahead)
KY-6 (Democrat, Ben Chandler, ahead)
TX-27 (Republican, Blake Farenthold, ahead)
AZ-8 (Democrat, Gabrielle Giffords, ahead)
WA-2 (Democrat, Rick Larsen, ahead)
CA-11 (Democrat, Jerry McNerney, ahead)
CA-20 (Republican, Andy Vidak, ahead)

Margins vary - CA-20 looks eminently callable. But yeah, I suggest we have a single thread to cover the counting aftermath.

[Sam Spade]

Yes, which is where this is going.   

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don't get why AZ-8, VA-11, KY-6, and NY-25 haven't been called yet.  IL-8 is probably going to be a Republican pickup, but if Bean wants a recount (and gains a significant number of votes through that) and the Cook County Machine likes her enough to "find missing ballot boxes" as they say in Southern Texas, this could theoretically be a Democratic hold, but probably not.  Ortiz can't be counted out quite yet for the same reasons (though he has a better shot than Bean), but that one will also likely be a Republican pickup.  The consensus seems to be that Larson is in good shape (given what's still out).  CA-11 could still conceivably go either way, but McNerney will probably win.  Although the numbers seem to spell doom for Costa, I keep hearing persistent reports that there were enough provisional/absentee ballots (for some reason) that he is still expected to win (or at least as a real shot), perhaps someone more familiar with this race can explain the situation in CA-20 (or give a better account of Costa's chances).

[nhmagic]

I don't get why AZ-8, VA-11, KY-6, and NY-25 haven't been called yet.  IL-8 is probably going to be a Republican pickup, but if Bean wants a recount (and gains a significant number of votes through that) and the Cook County Machine likes her enough to "find missing ballot boxes" as they say in Southern Texas, this could theoretically be a Democratic hold, but probably not.  Ortiz can't be counted out quite yet for the same reasons (though he has a better shot than Bean), but that one will also likely be a Republican pickup.  The consensus seems to be that Larson is in good shape (given what's still out).  CA-11 could still conceivably go either way, but McNerney will probably win.  Although the numbers seem to spell doom for Costa, I keep hearing persistent reports that there were enough provisional/absentee ballots (for some reason) that he is still expected to win (or at least as a real shot), perhaps someone more familiar with this race can explain the situation in CA-20 (or give a better account of Costa's chances).

AZ8 - see outstanding ballot analysis above...

[rob in cal]

Spent a little time on phillyelections.com and found some fascinating stats from the bluest sections of Philadelphia.  Ward 10 gave Sestak 9802 votes and Toomey, wait for it, 107 votes, Onorato 9660, Corbett 157.  Ward 10 precinct 7  was 321-1, 320-1, and a clean sweep of 320-0 for Chakkah Fattah.  The biggest total shutout  for Sen and Gov races was ward
11 precinct 7, 245-0 for Sestak, and 242-0 for Onorato.   
I wonder where the biggest (with over, say, 50 votes) precinct for the GOP in the US was?

[Torie]

It is amazing the GOP does that well with Hispanics in Texas. That deserves some sort of study, as to why. They do as well in Arizona (at least some candidates do), but close to half the Hispanics in AZ are evangelical Protestants.

Before Bush, Texas Hispanics were the most Democratic in the nation.

That is an interesting thought - that Bush's popularity with Hispanics relatively speaking, had staying power at least in Texas for subsequent GOP candidates.

Do we have any idea what the percentage of voters in TX-23 and TX-27 were Hispanic?  If we knew that, and assuming (I assume a reasonable assumption) that 75% of the Anglo voters in these two CD's voted for the GOP candidate (would you pick another percentage for Anglos?), we could impute the percentage of the GOP take of Hispanic voters this time for each of these two CD's.

75% is a fair call.  Though based on what I've been seeing in other results, it may be closer to 80% (remember that Perry got 69% of whites according to exit poll and Farenthold ran a couple of points better than his percentages - with the further note that a good chunk of the whites who vote Dem live in the major urban areas).

Adults-wise, TX-23 is 30.0% White, 65.1% Hispanic (there's about 3% blacks there).  TX-27 is 27.6% White, 68.1% Hispanic (with 3% blacks also).

It looks to me that no more than about 25%-30% of the Hispanics in TX-23 voted for the Pubbie. I don't think anymore than 40% of the voters in the district were Hispanic, based an Anglo turnout probably being about 50%, black turnout say 40%, and Hispanic turnout around 25% or something. If the Hispanic turnout is higher than 25%, than the GOP percentage goes down from 25%. It appears that about 55% of the registered voters are Hispanic, as best as I can tell.

              % vote  % GOP   % GOP of total vote
Anglo       0.56         0.75           0.42
Hispanic   0.40         0.25           0.10
Black       0.04         0.10         0.004
                                               0.524

[Guderian]

Sam Spade was right - a mysterious bag was found in TX-27 but only 7 votes for Ortiz in it. Farenthold +792.

[Lief 🗽]

Sam Spade was right - a mysterious bag was found in TX-27 but only 7 votes for Ortiz in it. Farenthold +792.

Damnit, Valley Democrats. You're supposed to be better than this.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, which is where this is going.   

I meant "only the aftermath". (Nah, seriously. He expect me to even read an 80 page thread that I haven't read yet? The only reason I came here was my thread was missing and this one was my best bet as to where it might have gone.)