NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[they don't love you like i love you]

Well that's three Senate seats the teabaggers cost the GOP it appears (CO, NV and DE)

Got to hand it to Bennet though, his pulling through was also largely thanks to him. Good job Bennet.

[Smash255]

All of Douglas is now in.  Buck up 6,865,  I don't see anyway how Buck wins this outside of some other error out there which went the other way.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I watched CNN for 15 minutes and almost barfed. Now I remember why I told myself I was going to avoid any election coverage on TV. I wasn't really disappointed with these results until I saw Erik Erikson and other such goons having near on screen orgasms. All they did when someone brought up the point "governing is going to be difficult" is say "DON'T DIMINISH OUR VICTORY".

I would not say that things look peachy for the GOP in 2012, or for the Democrats really. It's the perfect time for a third party to come into play or for a movement to completely take over one of the parties.

[cinyc]

MSNBC rolled out the B team. It's like amateur hour over there now.

Fox News did too - but Michael Barone is now on the B team for some bizarre reason.

[Vepres]

I would not say that things look peachy for the GOP in 2012, or for the Democrats really. It's the perfect time for a third party to come into play or for a movement to completely take over one of the parties.

How we need a viable third party...

[cinyc]

Great work Lief. Thanks for setting me straight. Not that I consider all on your list remotely blue dogs, but they are not in the forefront of the "yes we can" agenda either.

Plus 65 seats eh, Cinyc? What was my predicted number again?    By the way, it is 64, with probably 3 or 4 on either side of that. The Pubbie is not going to win CT-4. Look at what's out.

Sure, I got about 15 seats wrong, but they went both ways. Sometimes statistics works in your favor. And I suspect the generic number I used to generate the number was pretty close too.

Yes, Torie - it looks like you'll be right on the money.  The Republican isn't going to win CT-04 - the New York Times called it for Himes.

[cinyc]

Thanks cinyc.  For the House, everything turned out quite well with the rankings.  Like the dashboard too.

The only thing that sticks out as out of place is OR-05 - but that's largely SUSA's fault.

And on the other side, NY-13 and maybe IL-08, depending on the final result there.  But otherwise, an excellent job ranking the races.

[Torie]

The GOP shot its was in Yuma County, and came up a bit short. AZ-7 stays Dem. AZ-08 is about certain to remain Dem, in fact I really should call that one too. And Labrador has won ID-01, over the Dem Minnick. If it has not been called, it should.

It is possible that the GOP will gain no seats in CA. Stay tuned. The GOP margins with mostly just absentee ballots are very thin in CA-11 and CA-20, and Tran is behind by 5 points in CA-47, although with the Vietnamese thing, maybe absentees there will have less of a lean.

Oh, and Djou is behind a tad in the absentees. He is in trouble.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Seems Labrador is leading Minnick by 8%.

[Torie]

    Seems Labrador is leading Minnick by 8%.

And the bulk of what is left is in Labrador country in Ada County. This one is over.

[ucscgaldamez]

will they continue updating through the night?

[Sam Spade]

Now if I could only figure out exactly what was left in St. Louis County.  Do they even know?

[Torie]

Now if I could only figure out exactly what was left in St. Louis County.  Do they even know?

How many precincts in St. Louis County are GOP?  Oberstar has won unless I missed something.

[Sam Spade]

Now if I could only figure out exactly what was left in St. Louis County.  Do they even know?

How many precincts in St. Louis County are GOP?  Oberstar has won unless I missed something.

CNN says he's down 2500, with 92% of precincts and 97% from St. Louis (rest of stuff "out" should be good for Cravaack).  But I don't necessarily believe this.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Labrador's 50% win is still laughably weak. I demand a 2012 rematch!

Yeah though it looks like I did all of that volunteering for nothing.

[Torie]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

Addendum: And for the rest of the story we have this:

Isanti
Updated 1 minute ago
Cravaack
   
4,970
   55%
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
3,512
   39%
67% of precincts reporting

And what little is out in other counties, is slightly pro the Pubbie.

Oberstar has lost!

Addendum 2: BRTD, the reason St. Louis County was anemic for Oberstar was the abortion issue. Deal with it. Dayton is carrying it by a much bigger margin. Sure send Obama a message in a way a governor's race just doesn't have quite as much traction (particularly in a state not as economically prostrate as most), was part of it too.

[Associate Justice PiT]

    Seems Labrador is leading Minnick by 8%.

And the bulk of what is left is in Labrador country in Ada County. This one is over.

     ID-01 was a seat that only fell to begin with by a combination of a weak incumbent, a strong challenger, & a strong tide against the incumbent's party. The Democrats probably won't see it again for decades.

[Sewer]

god damn it angle shut up

[memphis]

So, what the greatest R+x seat held by a Dem for the next Congress?

[Sam Spade]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

So, after being king of Kentucky for today by nailing Rand Paul's numbers (56-44) and the Dem holds there, if I call Dayton by 1, Walz wins and Oberstar loses, do I get to be king of Minnesota for a day?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Well at least I called Labrador winning correctly...

[Ronnie]

All right, what's going on with MN-08?  Who is likely to win at this point?

[Torie]

When I looked 45 minutes ago, it was listed as 22% in from St. Louis County, and in fact it was much higher, and now 97%

St. Louis
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oberstar
(Incumbent)
   
47,468
   57%
Cravaack
   
32,968
   40%
97% of precincts reporting

So, after being king of Kentucky for today by nailing Rand Paul's numbers (56-44) and the Dem holds there, if I call Dayton by 1, Walz wins and Oberstar loses, do I get to be king of Minnesota for a day?

Minnesota is definitely a step up from KY. 

[memphis]

So, what the greatest R+x seat held by a Dem for the next Congress?

And to answer my own question, OK-2 is R+14. Impressive, Mr. Boren.

[Sam Spade]

So, what the greatest R+x seat held by a Dem for the next Congress?

UT-02 (R+15)
OK-02 (R+14)
KY-06 (R+9)
WV-3 (R+6)
NC-11 (R+6)
PA-4 (R+6)
PA-17 (R+6)