NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[J. J.]

Lamestream media calling Delaware for liberal communist Chris Coons.

The witch has lost?

The magic is gone.

[J. J.]

CNN is showing Toomey got 22% in Phila; that is up a bit, IIRC, than Bush's numbers.  In 1994, Ridge won with 25% in Phila, which I think is the best showing of a statewide Republican since I've lived here.

[J. J.]

Sestak is running about 3% behind Obama in Philadelphia, and not doing that well in Berks County (part of Toomey's district) either...but those seem to be the exceptions.  Sestak seems to be performing rather well.  Bizarre?

 
The bulk of Sestak's numbers are coming out of Phila.  There might have been proportionally more white people voting this time.

[J. J.]

What's going on with Pennsylvania?  I thought we had this in the bag.

72% reporting and it is 50/50.

The GOP just flipped PA-7 and PA-10.

The jury is still out an Lancaster and York are both below 50% reporting; 90% of Phila is in.

[J. J.]

The Amish vote is still out!

[J. J.]

Montgomery is only 29% in, don't count your chickens...

Lancaster is at 75%, Chester and York under 50%.  I'm not counting, but it is still open.

[J. J.]

All right, now it looks much better for Toomey.  PHEW.

Double Ditto.

Phila didn't turn out enough to stop him.

[J. J.]

All right, now it looks much better for Toomey.  PHEW.

Double Ditto.

Phila didn't turn out enough to stop him.

The fact that Philadelphia was even able to bring him this close in this environment in the rest of the state is still something I find incredible though.

I don't.

Had Obama been able to increase black turnout by about 20%, Sestak would be a US Senator (instead of an unemployed admiral).

BTW:  You can, on January 4, 2011, drive from City Line Avenue to about 50 miles east of Pittsburgh and never driver through a Democratic Congressional District.  

[J. J.]

Toomey is up by 4 points.

[J. J.]

I don't understand what they're waiting for on PA

A few times the media has called it wrong.  They are being careful.

[J. J.]

Toomey 51, Sestak 49.  There is still a third of Lancaster county outstanding. 

[J. J.]

Is this speech really happening?!?!!?

John Boehner is about to collapse from grief.

No emotional; I cried less during my father's funeral.

[J. J.]

I think this might be called "a deluge."

[J. J.]

Reid holds NV, according to Fox.

[J. J.]

Toomey and Corbett got killed in Philly (though ran strong/barely lost or barely won in the Republican areas of the city) but the margins elsewhere where so incredible that it didn't matter. Republican turnout in Bucks alone was sensational. Our numbers in Chester were great, too. Amazing. What a night.

I think the difference was the African American vote.

It was very Democratic.  It turned out in slightly better numbers than normal.  It was not, however, a much better turnout.

In other words, "President Obama, they don't have your back."  This time.

[J. J.]

Toomey and Corbett got killed in Philly (though ran strong/barely lost or barely won in the Republican areas of the city) but the margins elsewhere where so incredible that it didn't matter. Republican turnout in Bucks alone was sensational. Our numbers in Chester were great, too. Amazing. What a night.

I think the difference was the African American vote.

It was very Democratic.  It turned out in slightly better numbers than normal.  It was not, however, a much better turnout.

In other words, "President Obama, they don't have your back."  This time.

Wait for 2012. They'll turn out.

Maybe not.  In PA, you have to vote once every two years to stay registered.  You probably lost a number of registered Democrats in Philadelphia.

There is also the change factor.  That change was made already, and they might be no reason to change it.  It that respect, there was no energy.

To think of the analogy of Berry Gordy's the Last Dragon, last night, Obama was Sho'nuff, after the glow started to fade.  Still powerful, but not winning.

[J. J.]

This is a foreshadowing of things to come. You can't win with JUST Filthadelphia. Sestak's margins in Philly were spectacular. It wasn't enough.

I've argued that for years (not the point about "Filthadelphia." ). I think the Dems have gotten too cocky about their chances in the SE suburbs. It seems as if they expect decent margins out of the collar counties and just need to focus on insane turnout in Philly. It doesn't work especially when the Republican nominee ends up winning some of those counties (Toomey won Bucks and Chester).

This basically was the pattern from the 1980's, and in some races, into the 1990s.  The Republican candidate runs at registration in the SE, losing it.  Then he runs at registration in the T, winning it.  Then they get to SW, and run well ahead of registration.

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

Of course Brady will be doing that kind of recruitment. I wish I could be at the next Democratic City Committee meeting. Boss Brady will probably go off on quite a few people. Turnout in West Philly (where he controls one of the Wards) was huge but I've heard that North Philly had a pathetic showing.

Mine wasn't bad, but it was just above 2006 rates.

How did the turnout in the suburbs do versus 2006?

BTW, at 110 seats in the State House, this is the highest majority since 1976 for any party.  For the Republicans, it is the highest number since 1932.

[J. J.]

I don't have the numbers from 2003-6, but I don't there was ever a 110 R in the House since the 1950's.

[J. J.]

So does anyone know when/if Fayette County, PA last voted for a Republican for U.S. Senate?

Possibly 1982; Heinz had huge victory, larger than Ted Kennedy's.  If not then, probably prior to WWII.

[J. J.]

I looked at Centre County, and percent turnout was down. 

http://www.centredaily.com/2010/11/04/2316455/county-shifts-toward-gop.html

The county, which is the home of Penn State, became Democratic in registration in 2008.  Toomey carried it by 51.6 to Sestak's 48.2.

http://www.co.centre.pa.us/elections/results/results.asp?FolderName=2010_general_election&FileName=2010_general_accumulated_results

This might be a collapse in Democratic turnout across the rest of the state, possibly coupled by an increase in Republican turnout.  Democratic turnout, especially black Democratic turnout, was up in Philadelphia.

[J. J.]

So does anyone know when/if Fayette County, PA last voted for a Republican for U.S. Senate?

Possibly 1982; Heinz had huge victory, larger than Ted Kennedy's.  If not then, probably prior to WWII.

Specter carried Fayette in 1998.

Ah, I forgot 1998.  His opponent was from neighboring Somerset.

[J. J.]

Anything on those House seats still out?

[J. J.]

GOP at 242?

[J. J.]

You guys are at 239 right now.

My question was about the historic seat total: is it or is it not 246? 

No, the GOP had 300 in 1920, which was high.  246 was the post WWII high.

[J. J.]

You guys are at 239 right now.

My question was about the historic seat total: is it or is it not 246? 

No, the GOP had 300 in 1920, which was high.  246 was the post WWII high.

Ah, that's what I meant.

That's why I answered it that way.