NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[bgwah]

Murray is +4 now that King is in.

Koster is ahead by less than 1 in WA-2, though!

[bgwah]

Benton and Yakima counties may knock Murray down to +2 or so, but I don't see her falling below that.

[bgwah]

Murray +1.3 with only Cowlitz County left (leans Dem overall, but voted solidly for Rossi in 2008 so who knows). It's certainly not enough to erase her lead even if she did lose it.

Things to remember with Washington:
1) King County is huge and reports slower. This tends to increase the Democrat's numbers.
2) Polls were suggesting early voters favored Rossi---if true, Murray may expand her lead. But of course such cross tabs must be taken with a grain of salt, so we shall see.

[bgwah]

Most counties in Washington are done reporting for the night, just FYI...

[bgwah]

Washington is all-mail. There are a ton of ballots that haven't even gotten to the county election offices yet.

Most counties are going to do an update once a day or so.

It's estimated that King County is only about half in, though, so that is probably good for Murray. King's updates will be at 4:30 PM every day.

I'm much more interested in WA-2. Though a 0.8% deficit will be hard for Larsen to overcome, IMO... Then again, the margin changed by about that (maybe more) during the primary, so it could happen. But Koster could also expand his lead by another 0.8%, so who knows.

[bgwah]

What I understand based on reading blogs (lol):
-King County has received 114,000 new ballots today, pushing the total on hand to about 300,000.
-King County is expecting to receive another 45,000 in the mail and from drop boxes.
-So in total, King County probably has about 345,000 ballots left.

[bgwah]

If the remaining ~347,000 ballots in King County have the same 62.0-38.0 margin (big assumption), that would be a net gain of 83,000 for Murray.

If the ~595,000 ballots in the rest of the state kept the same 53.5-47.5 margin for Rossi, that would be a net gain of about 42,000 for Rossi.

Murray ends up winning with 51.17% in this scenario. I made a lot of big assumptions, and I know this wasn't the most advanced set of calculations (I might try to do a more detailed analysis for the non-King portion of the state later) but I have to do something while I wait for the painstakingly slow results.

[bgwah]

WA update:

Adams, Lewis, Pend Oreille (ultra Rossi) and Skagit (lean Rossi) updated. Murray lead down to 0.96 from 0.98. Will be a lot more updates through 7pm or so.

[bgwah]

Will Rossi lose a third time in a row? If he loses, I feel he should give up trying. : )

But who will run in 2012!? Sure, McKenna will for Governor, but Rossi can still challenge Cantwell!

[bgwah]

Snohomish County will update at 7:00 PM PST. That will give us a much better picture of how WA-2 might go, though I suspect Koster will maintain his lead.

We'll also get Whatcom County at 5:00 PM.

[bgwah]

King counted another 44,996 votes, so it probably has about 300,000 left to count.

The new batch voted 67-33 Murray, pushing King to 63-37 Murray (from 62-38) and thus increases her statewide lead from ~14,000 to ~31,000, or from 0.96% to 2.06%.

EDIT: fixed some numbers.

[bgwah]

WA-2 Tracker:

Skagit County update pushes Koster's lead down from 50.41-49.59 to 50.38-49.62

[bgwah]

WA-2 Tracker

Whatcom County has further decreased Koster's lead to 50.10-49.90!

If Snohomish (the biggest county) follows the lead of Skagit and Whatcom, Larsen should take the lead.

Koster's lead has shrunk from 1,429 to just 363.

[bgwah]

If you saw my last post, ignore it since I inverted the numbers.

Larsen has now taken the lead with 51.10% of the vote to Koster's 49.90%!

San Juan and Island Counties updated, and gave Larsen a net gain of 760 votes, so Larsen now leads by 397.

I'm not coming to any conclusions until Snohomish County reports in 90 minutes, but all of the other counties in WA-2 have been more Dem today than yesterday.

[bgwah]

Snohomish has reported, and Larsen now leads by 507 votes and has 50.13% of the vote.

[bgwah]

Hopefully this is the last we see of him. Murray was in a weak enough position that she should have gone down. I guess Washington Republicans will have to put their hopes on McKenna revitalizing the party in 2012.

Rossi was probably the best candidate the GOP could have run here.

McKenna has his sights on Governor and is not all interested in the Senate. Rodgers seems happy in the House, and has risen rather quickly within the Republican ranks from what I understand (not to mention candidates from the East tend to lose). I would've thought Reichert, maybe, but his rather anemic performance this year has changed my mind on that one.

[bgwah]

So King is busy digging up ballots as we speak?

If Rossi said something about his supporters needing second amendment remedies, I'd be inclined to be sympathetic, given his history . . .

Oh shut up already.

[bgwah]

Yeah, I think Larsen has this in the bag.

What a relief. Having a GOP congressman = depressing thought.