NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Skill and Chance]

If this hasn't already been noted, both of the Florida non-partisan redistricting amendments are over 60% and likely to pass.  The California non-partisan redistricting amendment is also over 60%.

[Skill and Chance]

If this hasn't already been noted, both of the Florida non-partisan redistricting amendments are over 60% and likely to pass.  The California non-partisan redistricting amendment is also over 60%.

Yeah, it sucks.

Meek got destroyed in the panhandle.

Why wouldn't you support fairly drawn districts?  If it's a partisan issue, remember that California is also giving up its chance at biggest Dem gerrymander in decades tonight, so I'm pretty sure it evens out.

[Skill and Chance]

If this hasn't already been noted, both of the Florida non-partisan redistricting amendments are over 60% and likely to pass.  The California non-partisan redistricting amendment is also over 60%.

They don't need 2/3? Sweet, I thought they did for some reason.

I think they need 3/5ths to pass.  Both are over 62% with 98% in.

[Skill and Chance]

So what's going on in VA specifically with the Connolly vs. Fimian race?  There's still two precincts in Fairfax County which haven't reported results.
https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2010/EB24720D-F5C6-4880-8DC5-12AE4D0C3772/Unofficial/6_l_CFF52707-FD82-4EFE-985A-D8C12A97EF10_s.shtml

Only one precinct, actually -- the other is for provisional votes, of which there will less than 10. The one precinct remaining is one that Fimian won in 2008, so this is probably going to a recount (though if Connolly is ahead going into it, he'll win; recounts barely move numbers in Virginia).

Scratch that, there *are* two precincts out, and both of them were easily won by Connolly in 2008. He's got it.

It looks like this district will now be more or less permanently in Democratic hands, especially after they give him more blue NOVA territory in redistricting to shore up the downstate GOP winners.  Of course this is offset by the 9th, which will now be permanently Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

That area is turning very liberal, very fast.  It is essentially the Fairfax, VA of the west.  It has probably ceased to be competitive in national elections.

[Skill and Chance]

What I understand based on reading blogs (lol):
-King County has received 114,000 new ballots today, pushing the total on hand to about 300,000.
-King County is expecting to receive another 45,000 in the mail and from drop boxes.
-So in total, King County probably has about 345,000 ballots left.

What are the implications here?

[Skill and Chance]

The Denver Post has called the race for Michael Bennet.

Colorado now has a Dem Governor and 2 Dem Senators. And 2 were elected in one of the worst cycles for Dems ever.

We're becoming a landlocked Washington state!

Although, the Republicans do have 4 of the 7 House seats, and they won back the state House (though narrowly). They have also held the AG, are on track to win the SoS race, and are neck and neck in the Treasurer's race.

How did Perlmutter managed to survive so comfortably?
CO-7 is supposed to be the epitome of the swing district.

It was when it was drawn, but things have changed.

Are they getting redrawn next year?

Yes, and the GOP took the State House of Representatives, so it will be a compromise map, probably favoring the Democrats overall though because they have the State Senate and the Governor.  I would imagine that Gardiner's and Perlmutter's districts get shored up to make them both safe.  If they are daring, the Dems might push to make CO-03 easier for Salazar to retake, but other than that, the status quo should be more or less preserved.

[Skill and Chance]

Is Himes' seat in doubt again after the CT mess?

[Skill and Chance]

Im surprised the Bennet survived.  He has that seat for as long as he wants it after tonight.

Why do people make stupid predictions like that?

It's not a stupid prediction.

Bennet won this election by about 1% against an awful opponent....and even if that weren't the case, you can NEVER say a person has a seat for as long as he wants in Colorado.

There is reasonably strong evidence after 2006-10 that Colorado has become a left-leaning state in general.  It's very different from VA or FL or OH, which all voted for Obama then had a pronounced swing back to the GOP.  There was no swing back in CO, indicating that the state as a whole has shifted left over the past 4 years. I think that is what this guy is getting at.  It's very premature to say that Bennet has the seat for life, but it's pretty logical to say that the Dems here have a better than 50% chance in any major CO race for the forseeable future.  I mean Hickenlooper broke 50% against two opponents for goodness sake!   

[Skill and Chance]

In CA-11, Harmer had a very rough day yesterday, as votes came in from Alameda, replicating its earlier swing to McNerney plus a bit. Harmer will need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in San Joaquin, the one place where he won, by having the late absentees and provisionals swing to him by perhaps 6%, plus have a turnout that matches the balance of the district with its late reporting, to get back to even.. That is highly unlikely. Harmer is really on the ropes now.

   Alameda               11/9/2010   
57.32%   15688   16086   398   59.49%   21024   4938   59.96%
42.68%   11679   11950   271   40.51%   15247   3297   40.04%
14.65%  27367  28036   669   18.98%   36271   8235   19.93%   5.28%   Dem Gain

So after three consecutive wave elections, only one of California's seats changed hands when McNerney defeated Pombo in 2006.
Whoever gerrymandered the state did a spectacular job.

Personally, I think IL-8 is over barring a miracle/mistake in recount.  Cook County absentee counting is basically over (only 500 absentee ballots have not been returned and there are only about 200 provisionals) whereas Lake and McHenry still have ballots left (Lake has 600 definite absentees and a few hundred provisionals whereas McHenry certainly has some absentees) and Bean is still down 347.

Illinois will probably be the only state where Democrats are going to have a LOT of fun with redistricting.

There are only a couple of places where the status quo has actually changed.  IL and NC are the big ones, along with FL thanks to the amendments.  The GOP might be able to get one more seat out of IN now, and the Dems might be able to get one more out of VA now that they have split control, but the other big states are basically still in the 2001 status quo.  In MN it's likely going to be a D governor and an R legislature instead of a D legislature and R governor, but I don't think that really matters.  MA now has a D governor, but the legislature is and was veto proof anyway.

There is also the impact of the Obama DOJ basically having veto power over redistricting in the former Confederacy, but the effects are still unclear.