NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey and Corbett got killed in Philly (though ran strong/barely lost or barely won in the Republican areas of the city) but the margins elsewhere where so incredible that it didn't matter. Republican turnout in Bucks alone was sensational. Our numbers in Chester were great, too. Amazing. What a night.

A Republican Governor, U.S. Senator, five more members of our House delegation (with a few very close losses), keeping our 30-20 hold on the State Senate and taking back the State House with at least a twelve seat net gain while knocking off the Majority Leader. Pennsylvania kicked ass tonight.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak won Greene county by 2 votes.  Just thought I'd mention that.

And won my precinct by two votes.   

[Keystone Phil]

In other words, "President Obama, they don't have your back."  This time.

Ha! So you heard those ridiculous ads, too? That's what I get for liking rap.

This is a foreshadowing of things to come. You can't win with JUST Filthadelphia. Sestak's margins in Philly were spectacular. It wasn't enough.

I've argued that for years (not the point about "Filthadelphia." ). I think the Dems have gotten too cocky about their chances in the SE suburbs. It seems as if they expect decent margins out of the collar counties and just need to focus on insane turnout in Philly. It doesn't work especially when the Republican nominee ends up winning some of those counties (Toomey won Bucks and Chester).

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

Of course Brady will be doing that kind of recruitment. I wish I could be at the next Democratic City Committee meeting. Boss Brady will probably go off on quite a few people. Turnout in West Philly (where he controls one of the Wards) was huge but I've heard that North Philly had a pathetic showing.

Even though Onorato (83%) and Sestak (84%) won the city big, there was more that could have been done and that could have saved them a Senate seat. Bob Brady won't like Pat Toomey as a U.S. Senator at all. Talk about polar opposites.

All that being said, you have to take note of the gigantic Republican wins here. Brady and Obama will do their recruiting but they have far less to work with now. The PA GOP, on the other hand, is at it's highest point in generations. Again, we have a Governor, a U.S. Senator, a five seat advantage in the Congressional delegation (after five pickups last night), the State Senate by a wide margin and the State House by a margin we haven't seen in awhile. In fact, that majority might grow by two seats after two recounts in Bucks county. This helps from an organizational standpoint and, most importantly, when it comes to redistricting.

[Keystone Phil]

I really am stunned at how well we did here with these races. Five pickups is awesome and we fell just a few thousand votes short of seven pickups.

The Fitzpatrick margin was the biggest shock. I wasn't the only Republican that expected a much closer race. I also can't believe how close Rothfus and Burns came to winning. I guess the idea that Rothfus had some of the best volunteers in the state wasn't a joke. Too bad he fell just short.

Marino's margin of victory was surprising, too.

[Keystone Phil]

I told you so, and you should have known more about this than I did.

Other involved people were stunned.

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Yeah but Carney is personally popular, is a great (though apparently not great enough) campaigner and Marino had some issues. A Marino win wasn't a crazy idea but Marino by ten certainly wasn't a common prediction.

[Keystone Phil]

This is a foreshadowing of things to come. You can't win with JUST Filthadelphia. Sestak's margins in Philly were spectacular. It wasn't enough.

I've argued that for years (not the point about "Filthadelphia." ). I think the Dems have gotten too cocky about their chances in the SE suburbs. It seems as if they expect decent margins out of the collar counties and just need to focus on insane turnout in Philly. It doesn't work especially when the Republican nominee ends up winning some of those counties (Toomey won Bucks and Chester).

This basically was the pattern from the 1980's, and in some races, into the 1990s.  The Republican candidate runs at registration in the SE, losing it.  Then he runs at registration in the T, winning it.  Then they get to SW, and run well ahead of registration.

If Obama and Brady aren't doing a huge recruiting drive there for registering new voters in 2012 that voted in 2008 and not 2010 I'd be shocked. Pennsylvania will be one of the key battleground states in 2012 so I'm sure Obama will put a big ground game in there.

Of course Brady will be doing that kind of recruitment. I wish I could be at the next Democratic City Committee meeting. Boss Brady will probably go off on quite a few people. Turnout in West Philly (where he controls one of the Wards) was huge but I've heard that North Philly had a pathetic showing.

Mine wasn't bad, but it was just above 2006 rates.

How did the turnout in the suburbs do versus 2006?

Eyeballing it, this year looks better.

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I thought we hit 112 already.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey won.  He got 35% in Phili.  That one is over.

Ha. If only that was true. He would have hit about 60% if that was the case. He only got 16% here.

[Keystone Phil]

I want my money back!

I wonder how many heart attacks Phil suffered from while they counted this though?

Oh, if you guys only knew. 

There was a period (I think it was from 9:45 - 10:30) where I thought it was over or close to being finished for Toomey but that slow comeback led to some pretty interesting reactions. 

The best was racing over to the Board of Elections when we thought it was going to a recount. I got out of my car with some others and as I'm running across the street towards the building, I found out that Sestak called Toomey to concede and that the AP called the race for Toomey.

I was initially very calm, reassuring people at the party that the early numbers were going to favor Sestak by a very wide margin. Things kept getting worse and I'm thinking to myself, "This isn't happening, is it?" Then the comeback. Ironic that the final comeback was for the guy that lead in polling almost the entire race. 

It might have been a stressful night but it was exciting. I can appreciate that.

[Keystone Phil]

They are very likely to axe PA 12. That was the feeling before these big wins and is certainly the feeling now.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait...we're at 240 right now, right? There are five races out there that are still undecided but the Republican leads. If we win all five, doesn't that put us just one seat short of our all time high (246) in the House?

[Keystone Phil]

But not as funny as Chris Matthews "hypnotic" election night interview with Michele Bachmann.

Yeah, that was great. Matthews' comment was hilarious but I loved what Bachmann was doing. The sign behind her asking Chris about the tingle in his leg was priceless. He got so cranky about something he claims he never said. I guess he knows what Palin feels like whenever they talk about her seeing Russia from her house. What goes around, comes around.

[Keystone Phil]

You guys are at 239 right now.

My question was about the historic seat total: is it or is it not 246? 

[Keystone Phil]

You guys are at 239 right now.

My question was about the historic seat total: is it or is it not 246? 

No, the GOP had 300 in 1920, which was high.  246 was the post WWII high.

Ah, that's what I meant.

[Keystone Phil]

Remind us lazies which ones have yet to be called. 

Also, is the GOP ahead in one or two of the remaining races?

[Keystone Phil]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know that these results include the absentee and provisional ballots though. There are still precincts that have yet to report. They might be from those areas.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey's margin of victory is now greater than that of Specter's in 1980 (GOP wave year) and 1992 and Santorum's in 1994 (GOP wave year).

[Keystone Phil]

Just to make sure the record is clear, Pat Toomey is now at 52% of the vote to Sestak's 48% - http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=39&OfficeID=2

What happened with Westmoreland?

Westmoreland County

Candidate Votes Percent
SESTAK, JOE (DEM)  
 8,338 9.9%
TOOMEY, PAT (REP)  
 76,002 90.1%

Hahaha, as Republican as Westmoreland county might be trending, we obviously didn't hit 90% there. I'm guessing there was a glitch. This would explain what I didn't notice before: Sestak's overall vote total dropped so Toomey might not really be at 52%.

[Keystone Phil]

I checked Westmoreland county's count on their website. Toomey's lead increased but by few tenths of a percent or so, picking up about 2,800 votes. I have no idea what they were doing at the Department of State.

I'm checking some of the county results and it looks like Toomey is picking up votes but I'm not sure that he'll hit 52%.  

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, here's what they did: for whatever reason, they took 40,000 votes from Sestak in Westmoreland county. Add those 40,000 back to his total and he's up to 1,930,615 to Toomey's 2,012,686.

I went through some other counties and noticed the absentee and provisional ballots were counted. I don't think this is the case everywhere though because when you look at the new numbers, Toomey only picked up about 12,000 votes while Sestak picked up about 9,000. There were at least 66,000 absentee ballots returned as of October 20th. They are obviously going to break strongly in Toomey's favor (as of October 20th, 57% of returned ballots were from Republicans, 37% were from Democrats and 6% were from all others).