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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderator: J Rpblc)
| | |-+  SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS: IL, IN, KY, MI, MD, MO, OH, WV
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Author Topic: SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS: IL, IN, KY, MI, MD, MO, OH, WV  (Read 18737 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: November 02, 2010, 05:36:44 pm »
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538.com has that seat as 70% chance of D winning 51-47.  So if this is R then is is a wave bigger than 538.com predicts

R+8 in IN-08 with 4% in.
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Guderian
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« Reply #51 on: November 02, 2010, 05:37:42 pm »
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Looks like a really good night for Indiana GOP. State House will flip almost certainly with these results too.
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Vepres
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« Reply #52 on: November 02, 2010, 05:38:15 pm »
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So that could mean 3 pick-ups in Indiana alone.... damn

I wouldn't trust leaked exit polls. They have an agenda.
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LOL, Failure

Alright, if Republicans gain less than 75 seats, I'll prominently display my failure in my signature.
Dan the Roman
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« Reply #53 on: November 02, 2010, 05:38:43 pm »
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None of the Democratic areas are in yet in IN-02. Literally Obama lost almost everything that is in except Vigo.
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redcommander
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« Reply #54 on: November 02, 2010, 05:38:56 pm »
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I'm glad Walorski is leading hopefully it holds.
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Holmes
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« Reply #55 on: November 02, 2010, 05:39:05 pm »
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Looks like a really good night for Indiana GOP. State House will flip almost certainly with these results too.

Constitutional marriage amendment! Are you pumped?
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Marokai Besieged
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« Reply #56 on: November 02, 2010, 05:39:10 pm »
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So that could mean 3 pick-ups in Indiana alone.... damn

I wouldn't trust leaked exit polls. They have an agenda.

I've made it a policy of mine to never trust exit polls of any sort.
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« Reply #57 on: November 02, 2010, 05:39:30 pm »
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Fox just called IN-02 for Walorski (R).
I think this doesn't indicate a call, but just a lead. They are still at 0 seats for both parties.

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« Reply #58 on: November 02, 2010, 05:39:36 pm »
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538.com has that seat as 70% chance of D winning 51-47.  So if this is R then is is a wave bigger than 538.com predicts

R+8 in IN-08 with 4% in.

You're mixing up IN-08 and IN-02; 538 has a Rep win percentage of 94% by 12 points in IN-08.
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Platypus
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« Reply #59 on: November 02, 2010, 05:41:33 pm »
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Their key is "In Play", or GOP/Democrat. I think that's a call (and for Fox, they have no problem calling early)
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« Reply #60 on: November 02, 2010, 05:41:33 pm »
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FOX ISN'T CALLING THESE RACES; THEY'RE SAYING WHO IS CURRENTLY LEADING

thanks
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #61 on: November 02, 2010, 05:43:19 pm »
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Who actually cares about FOX either way?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #62 on: November 02, 2010, 05:43:34 pm »
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Drudge: Exits

Paul +11

Kirk +6

NV Tied

No thoughts on these?
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« Reply #63 on: November 02, 2010, 05:43:51 pm »
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Anyone got a live update, no refresh required map please?
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« Reply #64 on: November 02, 2010, 05:44:16 pm »
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Drudge: Exits

Paul +11

Kirk +6

NV Tied

No thoughts on these?

How often are the Drudge exits correct?
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #65 on: November 02, 2010, 05:44:22 pm »
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If NV was tied on election day that's good for Reid since polls had him winning the early vote.
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« Reply #66 on: November 02, 2010, 05:45:35 pm »
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Bigger majority in the end, Coats or Paul? My guess is Paul and that speaks a lot about Coats.
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Insula Dei
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« Reply #67 on: November 02, 2010, 05:45:51 pm »
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If Ellsworth wouln't have ran, would he have held on to IN-08??

Or are Democrats hanging on to it either way?
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Platypus
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« Reply #68 on: November 02, 2010, 05:47:04 pm »
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FOX ISN'T CALLING THESE RACES; THEY'RE SAYING WHO IS CURRENTLY LEADING

thanks

except that they aren't. They're saying who they believe has a lead that puts the seat out of in play. Their colouration is independent of the numbers.

They might not be formally calling, but they're going as close as they can without doing so.
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« Reply #69 on: November 02, 2010, 05:47:51 pm »
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Drudge: Exits

Paul +11

Kirk +6

NV Tied

No thoughts on these?

How often are the Drudge exits correct?

Virtually never.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #70 on: November 02, 2010, 05:48:02 pm »
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I don't know what to make of this so early, but it ain't looking good thus far. But nobody expected IN or KY to be close.
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cinyc
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« Reply #71 on: November 02, 2010, 05:48:10 pm »
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If NV was tied on election day that's good for Reid since polls had him winning the early vote.

Exits likely include both early and election day vote.  They have in the past.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #72 on: November 02, 2010, 05:48:28 pm »
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If Ellsworth wouln't have ran, would he have held on to IN-08??

Or are Democrats hanging on to it either way?
Republicans are going to pick up IN-08 easily.

I think it would have been a tossup if Ellsworth had stayed in.

Anyways:
Huffington Post Exit Polls:
Blumenthal +8
Boxer +8
Kirk + 6
Johnson +5
Bennet +2
Murray +6
Toomey +4
Manchin +7
Reid even
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rob in cal
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« Reply #73 on: November 02, 2010, 05:48:47 pm »
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About half of the total votes in Ellsworth Coats are from Vigo county, which is in Ellsworth old district and is fairly Democratic, so I'm guessing Ellsworth overall percentage is going down from here.
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« Reply #74 on: November 02, 2010, 05:49:14 pm »
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If Ellsworth wouln't have ran, would he have held on to IN-08??

Or are Democrats hanging on to it either way?

It looks like he's winning it in the Senate race...
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