PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Eraserhead]

Are any black people voting today?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Haley Barbour went on MSNBC today and downplayed the Republican candidate for governor's chances in Ohio.

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-web-election-polls-20101102,0,6807746.story
Voter turnout higher than expected in Lehigh Valley.

[Keystone Phil]

Are any black people voting today?

Philadelphia turnout is apparently lower than usual with machine problems, too.

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-web-election-polls-20101102,0,6807746.story
Voter turnout higher than expected in Lehigh Valley.

Great news for Toomey.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-web-election-polls-20101102,0,6807746.story
Voter turnout higher than expected in Lehigh Valley.

Great news for Toomey.

Because he used to represent the district? They also said Allentown turnout seemed to be up in the article, and that's an area Sestak should win.

[Eraserhead]

Strickland surviving would be very big for us. I'm not getting my hopes up for that though.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-web-election-polls-20101102,0,6807746.story
Voter turnout higher than expected in Lehigh Valley.

Great news for Toomey.

Because he used to represent the district? They also said Allentown turnout seemed to be up in the article, and that's an area Sestak should win.

Yeah, he used to represent the district and remains popular there. Allentown turnout being higher, however, might just offset that.

[rbt48]

Strickland surviving would be very big for us. I'm not getting my hopes up for that though.

Yes, the Democrats really want to keep the Ohio governorship.  It is key to redistricting, particularly if the Republicans win back the lower house of the legislature.  All this not to mention the role that the Ohio Governor would play in the 2012 Presidential race. 

If Kasich has a margin of victory of <2%, I expect there will be challenges to the vote totals, with a friendly SoS, as opposed to the 2004 Presidential vote.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Just talked to a friend of mine in Philly who's friends with people who are high up in state Dem party. Didn't sound very confident, said Philly turnout is low and suburbs are voting in huge numbers so far.

[Eraserhead]

Rendell and Casey are walking around and telling random black people in Philly to vote, apparently.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/11/rendell-to-philly-voters-gop-trying-to-screw-the-president.html

The bit at the end about people seeming to be more firmly behind Sestak than Onorato is interesting (not exactly surprising though).

[Sam Spade]

Rendell and Casey are walking around and telling random black people in Philly to vote, apparently.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/11/rendell-to-philly-voters-gop-trying-to-screw-the-president.html

The bit at the end about people seeming to be more firmly behind Sestak than Onorato is interesting (not exactly surprising though).

You mean that Onorato sounds like the type of guy who might lock them up in jail if they stray too far from their area?

[Lief 🗽]

Posted in the other pre-election thread, but here's a map of the poll closing times courtesy SSP:

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/3307/sspmap2010b.gif

Is Chandler's district or any of the competitive Indiana districts wholly in the 6pm closing zone? It'd be nice to get full results for those early.

Chandler's district is, yes. IN-9 is as well.

Neat! Chandler's margin of victory probably won't tell us a lot (though if he loses it will obviously be a bloodbath of 19th century proportions) since Kentucky is strange, but IN-09 could be a good bellwether.

[Sam Spade]

In case you've missed it on the Governor board, I've decided to cut the threads down to 5 and for this board only, create a National House Thread, since enough requests have been made.

That doesn't mean you can't discuss House races in other threads, but there was a strong enough push for a national thread that I agreed to it.

Note that I agreed to it and Joe hasn't because he hasn't been around today, but if he disagrees I'm sure he'll let me know.    Also, it's 1:00 PM EDT, and since polls start closing in 5 hours, I want to have things up and going before then.

[Holmes]

Rendell and Casey are walking around and telling random black people in Philly to vote, apparently.

That's not a good sign....

KY-06 will tell us by how much Conway loses.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Are any black people voting today?

Oh, didn't you hear? In order to prevent long lines at polling locations, it's been requested that all black people instead vote on Wednesday.

[Brittain33]

Here's a bit of cheerful news for Republicans, mostly for implications elsewhere in the northeast: Coons camp worried about poor turnout in urban Delaware.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/02/coons-camp-expresses-turnout-worries/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's a bit of cheerful news for Republicans, mostly for implications elsewhere in the northeast: Coons camp worried about poor turnout in urban Delaware.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/02/coons-camp-expresses-turnout-worries/

If Coons is worried, dude should be taking anti-anxiety pills. He'll be fine.

And if he loses, then ... well, Chris Coons losing is the least of the country's problems at that point.

[J. J.]

Turnout North Philadelphia, J. J. 's Division.

At 1:45 PM, there were 94 voters voting.  This represents about 18% of the total registered voters.  Project turnout is 38-40 of the total registered voters.

In 2005, the number was 171 and in 2008 it was 214 (that was about 38%).  

In 2006, I only noted the percentage, about 15%.  I think that it was around 65-75 voters as there were fewer registered.

In short, there is a slight increase in voters from the last gubernatorial election, but still well below the presidential numbers.

[Keystone Phil]

I've also been hearing what J.J. noticed.

Rendell and Casey are walking around and telling random black people in Philly to vote, apparently.

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2010/11/rendell-to-philly-voters-gop-trying-to-screw-the-president.html

The bit at the end about people seeming to be more firmly behind Sestak than Onorato is interesting (not exactly surprising though).

You mean that Onorato sounds like the type of guy who might lock them up in jail if they stray too far from their area?

Here's why Onorato will lag when it comes to black support: Corbett has the backing of some black clergy groups. In fact, I have some friends in the field today that noticed Sestak and Onorato being "pushed" (that's our word for emphasizing certain candidates) at polling places in North Philly.

[Mr. Morden]

When will those shady exit polls start leaking on places like mydd and the National Review's blog? 4 PM eastern time or so?

Not until after 5:15 or so.  After the early afternoon exit poll leaking fiasco of 2004, they reformed the way they release exit polls to the media, so that none of the media organizations have access to their own exit polls until after 5pm.  So at about 5:15pm, you start seeing news stories like "people with blue hair voted for so-and-so", which isn't enough to tell you who won.  But you simultaneously (at least potentially) start getting leaks going to Drudge, National Review, HuffPost, etc.

[J. J.]

Here's why Onorato will lag when it comes to black support: Corbett has the backing of some black clergy groups. In fact, I have some friends in the field today that noticed Sestak and Onorato being "pushed" (that's our word for emphasizing certain candidates) at polling places in North Philly.

I got a robo-call from the guy, as did a friend in west Phila.

Corbett, who I'm not a fan of, had support from some black clergy in 2008.

[Keystone Phil]

Rendell and Casey are walking around and telling random black people in Philly to vote, apparently.

This was yesterday, by the way, though I'm sure they are out doing the same today.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a list of races that will be covered by the national exit polling consortium:

link

Ben Smith has gotten some emails which show anecdotal evidence of low turnout in Boston, Chicago, and NYC, at least as of early this morning:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1110/Quiet_in_the_cities.html?showall

Coons doesn't like what he's seeing on turnout:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/02/coons-camp-expresses-turnout-worries/

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Here's a national list of voting problems:

http://www.ourvotelive.org/

Doesn't look like anything too major.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Here's a bit of cheerful news for Republicans, mostly for implications elsewhere in the northeast: Coons camp worried about poor turnout in urban Delaware.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/02/coons-camp-expresses-turnout-worries/

maybe their internals showed the race closing to within 5 or so points over the weekend.

[Psychic Octopus]

How is the early voting in Nevada going? The polls have all had Angle leading, but I here turnout is tight. Silver forecasts that Angle has an eighty-two percent chance of victory.

[Lief 🗽]

Turnout North Philadelphia, J. J. 's Division.

At 1:45 PM, there were 94 voters voting.  This represents about 18% of the total registered voters.  Project turnout is 38-40 of the total registered voters.

In 2005, the number was 171 and in 2008 it was 214 (that was about 38%).  

In 2006, I only noted the percentage, about 15%.  I think that it was around 65-75 voters as there were fewer registered.

In short, there is a slight increase in voters from the last gubernatorial election, but still well below the presidential numbers.

Didn't the Democrats do pretty well at that last gubernatorial election?