PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Joe Biden 2020]

By the way, I could not move my gym appointment up, so I won't be back home to watch the elections until about 9pm EST.  I hope you all can tolerate my absence.

NO!! I demand you stay put!!!  Kidding, you go enjoy yourself and we'll see you tonight.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

It sucks Michigan doesn't really have any good elections.

MI-01, MI-07 and that other House district.

NJ is much worse though, only Alder vs Runyan to pay attention to.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I'm interested in Oklahoma's races.  I know the Republicans will win the Governorship, but I'm still optimistic about the other state offices since they are currently predominately Democrat.  Also, CD-5, the race to replace Soon-to-be-Governor-Elect Mary Fallin between Republican James Lankford and Democrat Billy Coyle.  I'm confident Lankford will win, but it will be interesting how big his margin is.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Blumenthal campaign is reportedly worried their voters are not turning out.

[Beet]

I was at my polling booth this morning and the crowd (not really a crowd, about 15 to 25 people at an elementary school at 7:11 am in the morning) seemed to be mostly Republican from a purely demographic sense. Unfortunately the balloting was done strictly by Diebold. Even though there haven't been ultra close Presidential elections like 2000 recently, I couldn't help but wish that we had paper ballots for everything. Electronic 'ballots' are too easy to hack without leaving a trail. What are your anecdotes?

[Phony Moderate]

Schumer is worried that his voters are not turning out....

[cinyc]

How on earth did we all miss CT-2 from the dead  Dem list?    A Pubbie, after about 20 hits from the bong and a few lines, might begun to have hallucinations that the Pubbie House count from New England might go from zero, to double digits.

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I initially thought CT-02 might go the way of CT-04 and CT-05, but all the polls have shown Courtney winning by a large margin.  Peckinpaugh was a terrible candidate.

[Insula Dei]

Schumer is worried that his voters are not turning out....

Schumer is worried??

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Schumer is worried that his voters are not turning out....

Schumer is worried??

no, he's just using his fake post in an attempt to mock my real post

[J. J.]

MSNBC just said that Phila was doing about the same as 2006 (which was my conclusion).

They think it helps Sestack.  I think he needs more than 2006 to win this one.

[Insula Dei]

Schumer is worried that his voters are not turning out....

Schumer is worried??

no, he's just using his fake post in an attempt to mock my real post

Missed out on that, sorry.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

I don't know why, but I'm incredibly calm right now. It's strange, I guess I've kind of detached myself from the election tonight emotionally, which is probably a good thing.

How are the rest of you feeling right now?

[You kip if you want to...]

Chris Matthews predicting a win for Raese and Tancredo... LOL.

[J. J.]

Are we getting any turnout from across PA?

[Insula Dei]

I don't know why, but I'm incredibly calm right now. It's strange, I guess I've kind of detached myself from the election tonight emotionally, which is probably a good thing.

How are the rest of you feeling right now?

Thank God I'm not American.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Chris Matthews predicting a win for Raese and Tancredo... LOL.

Raese, I can see winning, but Tancredo? Mr. Miami is a third-world country?

[Eraserhead]

Chris Matthews predicting a win for Raese and Tancredo... LOL.

Yeah, I saw that. I'm looking forward to his reactions to the actual results.

[Insula Dei]

Also, the Hardball crowd is suggesting a Rossi win.

Not that surprising looking at the actual poll numbers, but you all seem to be pretty sure about Murray.

[Eraserhead]

It's basically an entire panel of Beets on Hardball.

[cinyc]

Here's what I will be posting on the national House thread:



Most of it should be pretty self-explanatory, but here's what things mean.

The categories above the tables are Sam Spade's categories for GOP Targets (there's a similar chart for his DEM targets).  Within each category, you'll see an alphabetical list of districts.  The color of the cell is based on the Atlas Margin color code - lighter red = Dem leading by little, darkest red = Dem leading by most, lighter blue = Rep leading by little, etc.  Colors change in 5 point increments.

To the right of the CD name, there are two pieces of info - 1) the margin (D+10) in FL-22, for example and 2) the percent reporting, with a data bar.  If Independents are collectively winning (doubtful - but they were in the source's test data), you'll see IND instead of the margin.  If there's no data, you'll see NONE, like for NM-01 in the chart.

Next to the category headings are three numbers - the number of seats in which the Rs lead (or Ds lead, for the Dem targets), the number of seats that they are projected to win (R likely) and the number of seats that Rs lead where all results are in (R Def gain).

If a race is called, you'll see a Yellow star behind the CD name (like MO-04, in the test data, for example).

There will likely be images per full chart.

Any questions or thoughts?

that chart is anything but intuitive

You'll get the hang of it.  Basically, the CDs are in order of those Sam Spade thinks most likely to fall to those least likely, then ranked alphabetically within each category.  Color quickly tells you who is leading or won.  Margin and percent reporting data are to the right of the CD name.

There are 139 total districts - this is only the top 1/3rd.

[Lief 🗽]

Chris Matthews always says ridiculous things based on the feelings in random parts of his body.

I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen more spurious "leaked exit polls" by now...

[Joe Biden 2020]

It's basically an entire panel of Beets on Hardball.

That's why I don't watch MSNBC.  I'm watching the more sane lunatics on CNN.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Chris Matthews always says ridiculous things based on the feelings in random parts of his body.

I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen more spurious "leaked exit polls" by now...

We've got exit polls on CNN right now.

[tpfkaw]

According to Republicans, turnout is record high in rural areas and low in urban areas.  According to Democrats, turnout record high in urban areas and low in rural areas.  Just as an FYI.

[Eraserhead]

Chris Matthews always says ridiculous things based on the feelings in random parts of his body.

I'm a little disappointed we haven't seen more spurious "leaked exit polls" by now...

We've got exit polls on CNN right now.

What do they say?