PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[J. J.]

Turnout North Philadelphia, J. J. 's Division.

At 1:45 PM, there were 94 voters voting.  This represents about 18% of the total registered voters.  Project turnout is 38-40 of the total registered voters.

In 2005, the number was 171 and in 2008 it was 214 (that was about 38%).  

In 2006, I only noted the percentage, about 15%.  I think that it was around 65-75 voters as there were fewer registered.

In short, there is a slight increase in voters from the last gubernatorial election, but still well below the presidential numbers.

[J. J.]

Here's why Onorato will lag when it comes to black support: Corbett has the backing of some black clergy groups. In fact, I have some friends in the field today that noticed Sestak and Onorato being "pushed" (that's our word for emphasizing certain candidates) at polling places in North Philly.

I got a robo-call from the guy, as did a friend in west Phila.

Corbett, who I'm not a fan of, had support from some black clergy in 2008.

[J. J.]

Turnout North Philadelphia, J. J. 's Division.

At 1:45 PM, there were 94 voters voting.  This represents about 18% of the total registered voters.  Project turnout is 38-40 of the total registered voters.

In 2005, the number was 171 and in 2008 it was 214 (that was about 38%).  

In 2006, I only noted the percentage, about 15%.  I think that it was around 65-75 voters as there were fewer registered.

In short, there is a slight increase in voters from the last gubernatorial election, but still well below the presidential numbers.

Didn't the Democrats do pretty well at that last gubernatorial election?

Yep, but not had they had to rely on Philadelphia.  It was a very slow year.

Now, what's the turnout in the rest of the state.

[J. J.]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Uh... ? That'd be pretty decent for Sestak, no? Democrats tend to come out at night...

But don't old people come out mid-day?

Ugh. Not holding out too much hope for this race.

It's generally people with jobs and a lot of union people.

[J. J.]

GOP WINS GUAM!!!

And that changes the balance of power by 0.0%. 

[J. J.]

That exit poll is also 2% African American. Kind of ridiculous to spend much time with it.

We are not getting a huge African-American turnout, though I'd expect more than 2% (unless there is a massive white turnout).

[J. J.]

MSNBC just said that Phila was doing about the same as 2006 (which was my conclusion).

They think it helps Sestack.  I think he needs more than 2006 to win this one.

[J. J.]

Are we getting any turnout from across PA?

[J. J.]

Are we getting any turnout from across PA?

MSNBC just said that Phila was doing about the same as 2006 (which was my conclusion).

They think it helps Sestack.  I think he needs more than 2006 to win this one.

I think Brady said they need 400,000 votes out of Philadelphia this year. They received about 360,000 in 2006.

Are we getting any turnout from across PA?

I heard things are very good for us.

Fast Eddie just confirmed my Phila numbers, but his estimate is 36-38% overall turnout in Phila (a bit lower than mine).

It is a bit better than 2006, but well off even 2004.  It is up maybe 2-3%.  

[J. J.]

Are we getting any turnout from across PA?

MSNBC just said that Phila was doing about the same as 2006 (which was my conclusion).

They think it helps Sestack.  I think he needs more than 2006 to win this one.

I think Brady said they need 400,000 votes out of Philadelphia this year. They received about 360,000 in 2006.

Are we getting any turnout from across PA?

I heard things are very good for us.

Fast Eddie just confirmed my Phila numbers, but his estimate is 36-38% overall turnout in Phila (a bit lower than mine).

It is a bit better than 2006, but well off even 2004.  It is up maybe 2-3%.  

Well, of course it's well off "even 2004."  That will be true everywhere.  Philadelphia turnout was only 7% higher in 2008 than 2004.

AP Generic Exit Poll ballot is approximately R+5.5

Well, I'm looking at primarily African American voters and seeing if there was an increase above expectation (slight, but not a lot).

I'm not too sure it will be too much off 2004 in some of the other regions.  I'm trying to see it just better here, even across the state, or better elsewhere.

[J. J.]

According to two sources (one being a respected, non-partisan Philly watchdog group), only two precincts in Philadelphia are reporting turnout over 30%.

It should be higher than that, based on my count, but probably mid to upper 30's in Black precincts.

[J. J.]

60% Republican turnout in Bucks county. Huge numbers for Republicans in Butler and Washington counties.

That's what I wanted to hear!!!

30% in Phila at the time, possibly, but it close above 36%.

[J. J.]

Drudge says the exits have Kirk winning by 6 points in IL and Nevada tied between Reid and Angle.

Fox reported Ried did very well in the early voting.

[J. J.]

Fox just projected a 60 seat R gain in the House.

[J. J.]

Fox is now saying a 65 seat GOP gain in the House.

[J. J.]

I'm surprised that the House went so strongly Republican, but not that it went Republican.

The Senate might be lower than I expected.