PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[Mr. Morden]

Sam-

Just for clarification, does this thread cover any and all "chatter" that takes place before 6pm on Tuesday?  Specifically, I've sometimes done a "turnout reports, voting problems, and last minute dirty tricks" thread, like this one:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=69787.0

I'd planned on doing that again for this election, but if that sort of thing is meant to be included in this thread, that's fine.  I guess the question is, when you say "pre-election", do you mean that to include stuff happening *during* the election Tuesday during the day?

Also, after 5pm Eastern tomorrow, we'll start to get news stories from the media on the exit polls, along the lines of "48% of people nationwide who think the economy is getting worse and have blue hair voted for so-and-so", not really specific to any particular race, just national exit poll stuff.  Plus there may be exit poll leaks at sites like Drudge.  Should all of that be posted here, or should there be a separate thread for exit polls?

[Mr. Morden]

National weather forecast:



http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40918/election-day-weather-outlook-f.asp

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[Mr. Morden]

Polls are now open in several East Coast states.

[Mr. Morden]

Apparently, one place where the weather forecast is lousy is Alaska.  Not sure if that'll affect turnout or not.

[Mr. Morden]

When will those shady exit polls start leaking on places like mydd and the National Review's blog? 4 PM eastern time or so?

Not until after 5:15 or so.  After the early afternoon exit poll leaking fiasco of 2004, they reformed the way they release exit polls to the media, so that none of the media organizations have access to their own exit polls until after 5pm.  So at about 5:15pm, you start seeing news stories like "people with blue hair voted for so-and-so", which isn't enough to tell you who won.  But you simultaneously (at least potentially) start getting leaks going to Drudge, National Review, HuffPost, etc.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a list of races that will be covered by the national exit polling consortium:

link

Ben Smith has gotten some emails which show anecdotal evidence of low turnout in Boston, Chicago, and NYC, at least as of early this morning:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1110/Quiet_in_the_cities.html?showall

Coons doesn't like what he's seeing on turnout:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2010/11/02/coons-camp-expresses-turnout-worries/

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Here's a national list of voting problems:

http://www.ourvotelive.org/

Doesn't look like anything too major.

[Mr. Morden]

Some talking head on MSNBC just said that the Delaware Dems are alleging voter intimidation from the O'Donnell people.  I didn't catch the details though.

[Mr. Morden]

Muhlenberg Exit Poll in PA from 7-10 AM:

Toomey - 51%

Sestak - 47%


I'm thinking this was just a rounding error since 2% of voters clearly aren't writing someone in for this race.

Yeah, here are details:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/40750037/Early-Exit-Polling-Results-Muhlenberg-College

This appears to be separate from the network's exit polls, so there's no embargo until polls close.

Corbett leads 55-43%, according to that exit poll.

[Mr. Morden]

Remember 2004, comrades.

Anyway. I suck at basic maths. When do the polls shut in KYIN, Cymru time?

10:00PM.

Yes, but just the Eastern timezone parts of each state.  The networks won't call anything until at least an hour later, when the polls close in the rest of the state.

[Mr. Morden]

First real exit poll stories from the AP, not that they say much yet:

link

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[Mr. Morden]

National Review is encouraged by the exits:

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/252009/first-reactions-exits-if-not-exits-themselves

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[Mr. Morden]

Updated AP story on the exits:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101102/ap_on_el_ge/us_exit_polls

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[Mr. Morden]

WaPo on interpreting the exits so far:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/02/AR2010110202540.html

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[Mr. Morden]

ABC has just done a massive data dump for their national exit poll info:

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/2010_elections/National?ep=house

[Mr. Morden]

ABC's exit data suggest GOP lead of 51.5-46% in national House ballot.

ideology of voters:

conservatives 41%
moderates 39%
liberals 20%

[Mr. Morden]

Exit poll's Obama approval rating:

approve 45%
disapprove 54%

[Mr. Morden]

This has already been discussed heavily in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127349.0

ABC has the full national exit poll posted here:

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/2010_elections/National?ep=house

[Mr. Morden]

Drudge says the exits have Kirk winning by 6 points in IL and Nevada tied between Reid and Angle.

[Mr. Morden]

Drudge is now blasting:

"EXIT POLLS SHOW REPUBLICANS TAKE HOUSE:
50+ PICKUP
7+ SENATE"