PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)

[cinyc]

We need an overview thread, at least for the House.  Why?  Because I'm working on an overall dashboard.

[cinyc]

We need an overview thread, at least for the House.  Why?  Because I'm working on an overall dashboard:

I would agree with this in theory, but I think everybody would end up posting in that thread while the others get little attention.

Then make the other threads for Senate, Gubernatorial and local races.  The results of one House race doesn't affect much, and is pretty meaningless on its own.  We really need an overall picture of the House.

[cinyc]

Has anyone had any luck finding a link to the AP Senate results?  All I can find are the maps, not actual data in table form.

[cinyc]

No dice, all I've found is CNN's results page: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/full/

Annoyingly, they're sticking with their 2008 decision to not show third-party candidates anymore, unless they're expected to do extremely well (as in RI-Gov, ME-Gov, and FL-Sen).

Thanks.  CNN's not ideal, if they're dropping the third parties and all, but it's better than dealing with no data.

[cinyc]

No dice, all I've found is CNN's results page: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2010/results/full/

Annoyingly, they're sticking with their 2008 decision to not show third-party candidates anymore, unless they're expected to do extremely well (as in RI-Gov, ME-Gov, and FL-Sen).

ABC News does the same thing - but at least it puts everything on the same page:

Connecticut SEN, for example:

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/2010_elections/Connecticut?county=S-00

[cinyc]

I need to see the third parties in the New York gubernatorial race. I really do.

You and me both.  It's relevant to see which parties get a permanent place on the ballot.  And it's not like New York has a Board of Elections site that gives timely results, either.

[cinyc]

Here's what I will be posting on the national House thread:



Most of it should be pretty self-explanatory, but here's what things mean.

The categories above the tables are Sam Spade's categories for GOP Targets (there's a similar chart for his DEM targets).  Within each category, you'll see an alphabetical list of districts.  The color of the cell is based on the Atlas Margin color code - lighter red = Dem leading by little, darkest red = Dem leading by most, lighter blue = Rep leading by little, etc.  Colors change in 5 point increments.

To the right of the CD name, there are two pieces of info - 1) the margin (D+10) in FL-22, for example and 2) the percent reporting, with a data bar.  If Independents are collectively winning (doubtful - but they were in the source's test data), you'll see IND instead of the margin.  If there's no data, you'll see NONE, like for NM-01 in the chart.

Next to the category headings are three numbers - the number of seats in which the Rs lead (or Ds lead, for the Dem targets), the number of seats that they are projected to win (R likely) and the number of seats that Rs lead where all results are in (R Def gain).

If a race is called, you'll see a Yellow star behind the CD name (like MO-04, in the test data, for example).

There will likely be images per full chart.

Any questions or thoughts?

[cinyc]

How on earth did we all miss CT-2 from the dead  Dem list?    A Pubbie, after about 20 hits from the bong and a few lines, might begun to have hallucinations that the Pubbie House count from New England might go from zero, to double digits.

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I initially thought CT-02 might go the way of CT-04 and CT-05, but all the polls have shown Courtney winning by a large margin.  Peckinpaugh was a terrible candidate.

[cinyc]

Here's what I will be posting on the national House thread:



Most of it should be pretty self-explanatory, but here's what things mean.

The categories above the tables are Sam Spade's categories for GOP Targets (there's a similar chart for his DEM targets).  Within each category, you'll see an alphabetical list of districts.  The color of the cell is based on the Atlas Margin color code - lighter red = Dem leading by little, darkest red = Dem leading by most, lighter blue = Rep leading by little, etc.  Colors change in 5 point increments.

To the right of the CD name, there are two pieces of info - 1) the margin (D+10) in FL-22, for example and 2) the percent reporting, with a data bar.  If Independents are collectively winning (doubtful - but they were in the source's test data), you'll see IND instead of the margin.  If there's no data, you'll see NONE, like for NM-01 in the chart.

Next to the category headings are three numbers - the number of seats in which the Rs lead (or Ds lead, for the Dem targets), the number of seats that they are projected to win (R likely) and the number of seats that Rs lead where all results are in (R Def gain).

If a race is called, you'll see a Yellow star behind the CD name (like MO-04, in the test data, for example).

There will likely be images per full chart.

Any questions or thoughts?

that chart is anything but intuitive

You'll get the hang of it.  Basically, the CDs are in order of those Sam Spade thinks most likely to fall to those least likely, then ranked alphabetically within each category.  Color quickly tells you who is leading or won.  Margin and percent reporting data are to the right of the CD name.

There are 139 total districts - this is only the top 1/3rd.

[cinyc]

I've got five reporting methods ready to go for tonight, CNN TV, CNN.com, NY Times, Politico, and my local NBC affiiate (kfor.com) for the Oklahoma results.

What race in Oklahoma could possibly be that interesting?

OK-02 is on Sam's watch list.  And OK-Gov will be interesting.

[cinyc]

Democrats are getting slaughtered among the $200,000+ crowd.  That's different.