Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate?
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  Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate?
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Poll
Question: Will Republicans take the Senate?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 63

Author Topic: Last minute poll: Will Republicans take the Senate?  (Read 2986 times)
CJK
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« on: November 01, 2010, 05:12:22 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2010, 05:59:47 PM by CJK »

If Republicans really run the table they can get Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Washington. The last two are the most difficult and unpredictable, though.
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SPC
Chuck Hagel 08
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2010, 05:15:13 PM »

My model says that they have a 1-in-5 shot at doing it, and I think I would take those odds.
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Insula Dei
belgiansocialist
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2010, 05:16:12 PM »

I want be on the record as predicting a DEM hold of the senate.And I also expect/hope that the REP wave in the house will be less massive than some seem to think.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2010, 05:17:35 PM »

No, but I hope I'm wrong. I have Democrats narrowly holding on in Washington, California, and West Virginia, but I have a feeling all three races will be very close. I think Republicans will have between 48-50 seats after this election. I think if we can get to 50, Lieberman will switch caucuses, giving us the majority.

Regardless, I think Republicans will be heavily favored to take the Senate in 2012, and since nothing can be done this upcoming session anyways, this would only give Republicans bragging rights.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2010, 05:28:20 PM »

The funny thing is, if I were the Republicans I wouldn't want to take the Senate... why?

Thinking towards 2012, think about what resurrected Clinton in 1995? It was the Republican takeover, then the shutdown and Clinton being able to blame everything on the Congressional Republicans.

I wouldn't be too sure about 2012...
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J. J.
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2010, 05:32:08 PM »

Road Kill:

IN, AR, WI, NE

Probable:

PA, IL, CO, NV

Toss up:

WA

On a good day:

WV, CA

Only with a 23 level archmage casting a Wish spell:

DE

I only give a GOP take over the Senate  35% chance.

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The Vorlon
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2010, 05:32:38 PM »

The funny thing is, if I were the Republicans I wouldn't want to take the Senate... why?

Thinking towards 2012, think about what resurrected Clinton in 1995? It was the Republican takeover, then the shutdown and Clinton being able to blame everything on the Congressional Republicans.

I wouldn't be too sure about 2012...


If we believe Gallup, Fox, Rasmussen and CNN and the Generic ballot really is is +10 or better for the GOP, Washington has got be be very close, and West Virginia can be too far off.

I don't think so, but I would not be shocked.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2010, 05:34:13 PM »


Only with a 23 level archmage casting a Wish spell:

DE


But isn't O'Donnell a witch or something?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2010, 05:34:46 PM »

The funny thing is, if I were the Republicans I wouldn't want to take the Senate... why?

Thinking towards 2012, think about what resurrected Clinton in 1995? It was the Republican takeover, then the shutdown and Clinton being able to blame everything on the Congressional Republicans.

I wouldn't be too sure about 2012...


If we believe Gallup, Fox, Rasmussen and CNN and the Generic ballot really is is +10 or better for the GOP, Washington has got be be very close, and West Virginia can be too far off.

I don't think so, but I would not be shocked.

I still think extrapolating generic ballots to say "well this is what it means" in this scenario is a potential mistake.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2010, 05:43:37 PM »

The funny thing is, if I were the Republicans I wouldn't want to take the Senate... why?

Thinking towards 2012, think about what resurrected Clinton in 1995? It was the Republican takeover, then the shutdown and Clinton being able to blame everything on the Congressional Republicans.

I wouldn't be too sure about 2012...


If we believe Gallup, Fox, Rasmussen and CNN and the Generic ballot really is is +10 or better for the GOP, Washington has got be be very close, and West Virginia can be too far off.

I don't think so, but I would not be shocked.

I still think extrapolating generic ballots to say "well this is what it means" in this scenario is a potential mistake.

The Generic Ballot more or less works for the House, but the Senate is a different kettle of fish.

In Deleware Castle is a semi-lock for the GOP if he is the candidate, O'Donnell as candidate and the state is a semi-lock for the Dems.

The candidate matters a lot more at the State Senate level.

Same Generic Ballot, different candidates => different result.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2010, 05:44:32 PM »

They will get to 50 and then Lieberman will switch.
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2010, 05:44:54 PM »

I don't think they will.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2010, 05:50:31 PM »

West Virginia is necessary for any Republican path to the majority and Manchin is up 4-5 points, which is very final at this point.
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SPQR
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« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2010, 05:53:16 PM »

I want be on the record as predicting a DEM hold of the senate.And I also expect/hope that the REP wave in the house will be less massive than some seem to think.
Agreed.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2010, 05:56:38 PM »

No, although they have a better chance of doing so than the Democrats have of holding the House.
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CJK
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« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2010, 06:01:08 PM »

Well, West Virginia did go for McCain in a landslide, and Washington is statistically tied.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2010, 06:20:12 PM »

no.  but the conservatives will have a working majority.
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GMantis
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2010, 08:37:34 AM »

no.  but the conservatives will have a working majority.
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2010, 10:10:44 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2010, 10:19:48 AM by jmfcst »

I voted Yes, but IMO WV is the key.  If GOP wins WV, it is a sign of a bigger wave that will give the GOP the Senate and ~70 House seats.  If GOP loses WV, then I expect GOP House gains will be limited to around 50.
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Franzl
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2010, 10:14:20 AM »

No, WA, WV and some random unexpected DEM hold gives Republicans 48.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2010, 10:20:40 AM »

No - Democrats hold NV, WA, and WV.
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2010, 10:29:07 AM »

no.  but the conservatives will have a working majority.

That would require something like R+17
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2010, 10:35:36 AM »

no.  but the conservatives will have a working majority.

That would require something like R+17

It would depend on how you define "conservative".
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2010, 10:37:15 AM »

I'd define "conservative" as "would actually cut spending."  I'm being charitable when I say R+17.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2010, 10:48:15 AM »

     Very unlikely, yet still more likely than the Democrats holding the House.
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