PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)
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Author Topic: PRE-ELECTION CHATTER THREAD (SENATE/HOUSE RACES)  (Read 18880 times)
The Vorlon
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« Reply #225 on: November 02, 2010, 05:17:36 PM »
Exit polls are a mess, nothing balances between samples.
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Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey
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« Reply #226 on: November 02, 2010, 05:18:31 PM »
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit.html
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You kip if you want to...
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« Reply #227 on: November 02, 2010, 05:18:57 PM »
Anyone got a site with live updates, no refreshing required?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #228 on: November 02, 2010, 05:22:48 PM »
According to two sources (one being a respected, non-partisan Philly watchdog group), only two precincts in Philadelphia are reporting turnout over 30%.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #229 on: November 02, 2010, 05:28:20 PM »
This has already been discussed heavily in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=127349.0

ABC has the full national exit poll posted here:

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/2010_elections/National?ep=house
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J. J.
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« Reply #230 on: November 02, 2010, 05:28:55 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2010, 05:22:48 PM
According to two sources (one being a respected, non-partisan Philly watchdog group), only two precincts in Philadelphia are reporting turnout over 30%.

It should be higher than that, based on my count, but probably mid to upper 30's in Black precincts.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #231 on: November 02, 2010, 05:30:15 PM »
Quote from: J. J. on November 02, 2010, 05:28:55 PM
Quote from: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2010, 05:22:48 PM
According to two sources (one being a respected, non-partisan Philly watchdog group), only two precincts in Philadelphia are reporting turnout over 30%.

It should be higher than that, based on my count, but probably mid to upper 30's in Black precincts.

Apparently, the Committee of 70 was sampling all of the divisions in the city so I think I'll trust their count.  Wink
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Umengus
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« Reply #232 on: November 02, 2010, 05:39:34 PM »
exits polls are not statics. They move with the night...
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #233 on: November 02, 2010, 05:44:28 PM »
And polls are not even all closed in Kentucky and IN.
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Emperor
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« Reply #234 on: November 02, 2010, 05:49:36 PM »
Kirk(R) wins 49% :43% according to Drudge...
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #235 on: November 02, 2010, 05:49:46 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on November 02, 2010, 05:39:34 PM
exits polls are not statics. They move with the night...

true.

This early set is junk, really bad, nothing is internally consistent.

throw them out, wait for the next set... as you suggested...

I know they are junk, I wanna play with them anyway!

I had a "I'm a junkie" moment today... I briefly thought about looking at the Zogby site to see if there were any polls there I had not seen....

I called my "sponsor" and they talked be out of it, but I realized then I needed help... Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #236 on: November 02, 2010, 05:49:55 PM »
60% Republican turnout in Bucks county. Huge numbers for Republicans in Butler and Washington counties.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #237 on: November 02, 2010, 05:51:05 PM »
Quote from: Emperor on November 02, 2010, 05:49:36 PM
Kirk(R) wins 49% :43% according to Drudge...

Fast call on Wisconsin, Kirk better than expected, Rand Paul about as polled, Reid hanging in there...

no clear pattern yet.
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J. J.
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« Reply #238 on: November 02, 2010, 05:57:55 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on November 02, 2010, 05:49:55 PM
60% Republican turnout in Bucks county. Huge numbers for Republicans in Butler and Washington counties.

That's what I wanted to hear!!!

30% in Phila at the time, possibly, but it close above 36%.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #239 on: November 02, 2010, 06:10:51 PM »
Drudge says the exits have Kirk winning by 6 points in IL and Nevada tied between Reid and Angle.
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J. J.
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« Reply #240 on: November 02, 2010, 06:27:59 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2010, 06:10:51 PM
Drudge says the exits have Kirk winning by 6 points in IL and Nevada tied between Reid and Angle.


Fox reported Ried did very well in the early voting.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #241 on: November 02, 2010, 06:30:51 PM »
Drudge is now blasting:

"EXIT POLLS SHOW REPUBLICANS TAKE HOUSE:
50+ PICKUP
7+ SENATE"
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J. J.
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« Reply #242 on: November 02, 2010, 08:14:06 PM »
Fox just projected a 60 seat R gain in the House.
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J. J.
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« Reply #243 on: November 03, 2010, 12:20:36 AM »
Fox is now saying a 65 seat GOP gain in the House.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #244 on: November 03, 2010, 07:56:43 AM »
Just to give credit where credit is due for shortly after the last election:

Sam predicted Armageddon for southern white Democrats, and Johnny Longtorso predicted that 1994 was just around the corner.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #245 on: November 03, 2010, 08:13:45 AM »
Quote from: brittain33 on November 03, 2010, 07:56:43 AM
Just to give credit where credit is due for shortly after the last election:

Sam predicted Armageddon for southern white Democrats, and Johnny Longtorso predicted that 1994 was just around the corner.

It was really not that hard to see once incumbents in vulnerable districts started retiring left and right.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #246 on: November 03, 2010, 08:55:18 AM »
Quote from: JohnnyLongtorso on November 03, 2010, 08:13:45 AM
Quote from: brittain33 on November 03, 2010, 07:56:43 AM
Just to give credit where credit is due for shortly after the last election:

Sam predicted Armageddon for southern white Democrats, and Johnny Longtorso predicted that 1994 was just around the corner.

It was really not that hard to see once incumbents in vulnerable districts started retiring left and right.

Yep.  What really annoys me prediction-wise this election is that I could have gotten most every House election right if I had looked at some of the data I had in front of my own face.
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J. J.
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« Reply #247 on: November 03, 2010, 09:20:49 AM »
I'm surprised that the House went so strongly Republican, but not that it went Republican.

The Senate might be lower than I expected.
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