Post interesting results (biggest victories, milestones, etc)
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  Post interesting results (biggest victories, milestones, etc)
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Author Topic: Post interesting results (biggest victories, milestones, etc)  (Read 5215 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: November 03, 2010, 03:42:47 AM »
« edited: November 03, 2010, 05:20:19 AM by Nichlemn »

What district the GOP won had the most Democratic CPVI? Looks like they just won in Republican and low-single digits Democratic turf, basically recouping the bulk of 06/08 losses and supplementing them with (mostly Southern) GOP-favouring holdouts. IL-10 might be their most Democratic district at D+6, and that was a hold.

What Democratic incumbent lost by the biggest margin? (Cao surely claims that prize for incumbents, at 65-36). Looks to me to be Chet Edwards, who lost 62-37 in his admittedly R+20 district. TN-06 appears to be the biggest open seat win, at 69%-27% for the GOP. What come next? Lincoln Davis (57-38), Alan Grayson (56-38) and Suzanne Kosmas (60-40) are surely up there.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2010, 06:24:17 AM »

Larry Buchson picked up an open seat by 20 points, 57-37.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2010, 10:33:54 AM »

I still can't beliebe HOW McMahon (michael) LOST
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2010, 10:37:25 AM »

Minnick losing surprised me, though I prefer an actual Republican to a wannabe Republican like Minnick. Owens hanging on in NY-23 but Arcuri losing in NY-24 was surprising as well.
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BillyW
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2010, 10:41:10 AM »

Weird race in south Texas. I believe Blake Farenholdt won over Solomon Ortiz in a very close race. Farenholdt is the step-grandson of Sissy Farenholdt who ran for governor back in the 70's as a real liberal. Blake is conservative
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2010, 10:54:38 AM »

The old guard (Republican Revolution survivors) that lost last night:

Jim Oberstar (MN-08, elected 1974)
Gene Taylor (MS-04, elected 1989)
Ike Skelton (MO-04, elected 1976)
Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL, elected 1992)
Paul Kanjorski (PA-11, elected 1984)
John Spratt (SC-05, elected 1982)
Chet Edwards (TX-17, elected 1990)
Solomon Ortiz (TX-27, elected 1982)
Rick Boucher (VA-09, elected 1982)
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🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸
shua
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2010, 12:48:32 PM »

With the new Congress, you could travel the map from Key West to the Hudson Valley to Lake Superior to the Rio Grande/Mexico border to Orange County CA to Pacific Co WA, without going through a single Dem CD.
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Vepres
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2010, 01:24:22 PM »

Interesting fact: While not winning a single seat in Massachusetts, the Republicans kept the Democrats under 60% in six of the ten districts.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2010, 02:19:00 PM »

Who did and did not rely on the college towns, state capitals, and that sort of place?

Holt lost outside Mercer by around 8,000.
Hinchey lost by a little over 1,000 outside Tompkins and Dutchess, which are just fingers to Ithaca and Poughkeepsie.
Loebsack lost outside Johnson by about 3,000.
DeFazio lost outside Lane by around 8,000.

Dingell won even without Washtenaw, as I mentioned on the other thread.
Baldwin won very narrowly outside Dane.
Shuler narrowly (between 1000-2000) won outside Buncombe, which is not unimpressive.
ME-1 has a gazillion towns I haven't added up, but at least Pingree won outside Portland proper.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
AHDuke99
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2010, 02:42:10 PM »

My district elected a black Republican.
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Guderian
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2010, 03:14:38 PM »

Hoeven, Coburn, Ayotte, Crapo and Leahy won every county in their state. Grassley lost just one. Kirk lost just two but with one of them being Cook it almost cost him.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2010, 03:27:48 PM »

Frankly, I was surprised at the absolute destruction of Hodes by Ayotte, but NH has a habit of doing this at times.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2010, 03:39:51 PM »

It was certainly interesting to note that the traditional American personal vote - which is almost a kind of electoral deference - counted for very little this year (for Democrats, anyway).
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2010, 04:33:22 PM »

What district the GOP won had the most Democratic CPVI?

Assuming current results hold, the Republican pickup with the most Democratic CPVI is CA-20 at D+5.
Also on the D+ side:
D+4
PA-11

D+3
IL-17
MN-08
NH-02
PA-07
WA-02
WI-07

D+2
NV-03
PA-08

D+1
FL-22
OH-01
OH-15

I think that's all of them.

Average PVI of Republican pickups was R+4.6 - but that includes CT-04 for now since Bridgeport wasn't fully in the last time I ran the dashboard this afternoon.

The lowest Dem pickup PVI was in DE-AL - D+7.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2010, 07:57:11 PM »
« Edited: November 08, 2010, 02:14:48 AM by Swarm of Bees »

I agree that NY-23 and NH-Senate were surprising.

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Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2010, 08:06:43 PM »

I still can't beliebe HOW McMahon (michael) LOST

Yeah, NY-13 was pretty shocking. McMahon lost by four points while Cuomo defeated Paladino by 17. Even Gillibrand narrowly won there over DioGuardi.
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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2010, 11:52:16 PM »

What district the GOP won had the most Democratic CPVI?

Assuming current results hold, the Republican pickup with the most Democratic CPVI is CA-20 at D+5.
Also on the D+ side:
D+4
PA-11

D+3
IL-17
MN-08
NH-02
PA-07
WA-02
WI-07

D+2
NV-03
PA-08

D+1
FL-22
OH-01
OH-15

I think that's all of them.

Average PVI of Republican pickups was R+4.6 - but that includes CT-04 for now since Bridgeport wasn't fully in the last time I ran the dashboard this afternoon.

The lowest Dem pickup PVI was in DE-AL - D+7.

Remember that a PVI of Even, means that the average of the Obama and Bush 2004 performances of the CD ended up being a 5% margin for the Dem, 52.5% to 47.5%.  Any Pubbie incumbent would push hard for a CD that was at least 3.5 R% PVI, which would afford a 2% "generic" margin, 51 to 49 R.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2010, 04:47:21 AM »

Dale Kildee held to 53% of the vote.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2010, 06:56:06 AM »

Wally Herger, the Republican in CA-02, won with 57%. He got 58% in 2008. That can't be good news for him.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2010, 07:52:50 AM »


Wow, Michigan 2010 was the total reverse of Michigan 2008... Republican overperformance due to collapse at the top of the ticket following Democratic overperformance helped in part by the same factor. Michigan's PVIs are still wacky from Obama's overperforming there.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2010, 09:04:18 AM »


Yeah. For some reason I had expected shockingly low margins in the white parts of Greater Detriot but not there; actually turned out the other way around.
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J. J.
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2010, 01:04:43 PM »

One January 4, 2011, you can drive:

1.  Across Pennsylvania on I-80 and never enter a Democratic district.

2.  Across Pennsylvania from City Line Avenue to about 60 miles east of the Allegheny County line on Route 30, and never enter a Democratic district.  If I would continue westward, I would have to enter another GOP district before I got to the Allegheny County line.
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Guderian
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2010, 01:27:31 PM »

Who is the youngest person elected this year? Anyone born in 1980s?
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2010, 01:30:25 PM »

In PA, the way Lackawanna has held up for the Dems in contrast to the southwestern counties is kind of interesting.

Also, I continue to be mystified by DioGuardi's margin in Niagara County, in contrast to Schumer's. Elsewhere in western NY, there wasn't that much Paladino spillover into the senate races.
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Sbane
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2010, 01:57:07 PM »

Wally Herger, the Republican in CA-02, won with 57%. He got 58% in 2008. That can't be good news for him.

I noticed that too. Don't know what caused it (maybe the Democrat was popular in Butte County or something), but there is plenty of Republican territory around him. He shouldn't be too impacted by redistricting. CA-3 on the other hand.....
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