Winners and Losers: 2010 election impact on 2012 candidates

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Winners and Losers: 2010 impact on 2012 candidates

Losers:
1) Obama:  agenda rebuked, still has unpopular Reid leading his cause and can't run against do-nothing GOP congress
2) Palin:  Miller, Angle, ODonnell lost.  GOP should now clearly see that Palin is not anywhere close to being the best candidate for the GOP in 2012
3) Moderates:  Blue Dogs all but gone, surviving Dems are now more liberal, new Reps are more conservative.  Despite losing DE, GOP is NOT mourning the loss of RINOs like Castle.
4) Al Gore:  Cap and Trade is DOA
5) California:  Brown will make a bad situation worse by raising taxes and driving out more businesses.
6) Libertarians:  Paul in Kentucky is a joke.  Econ/Social scores of +9/-9 do not sell in any corner of America.


Winners:
Rubio:  will become the face of the GOP Senate
GOP establishment:  now has a narrative (unsophisticated and/or extreme candidates are losers) to use against Palin.
Romney/Pence/Christie:  Palin is (or at least should be) weakened.
Bush43: Tax cuts will be extended.

[Inmate Trump]

The "Tea Party" will never win another election now.  Or at least I hope not...

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

The "Tea Party" will never win another election now.  Or at least I hope not...

Tea Party is simply a wing of the GOP.  Hopefully, it will teach them that:

1) killing RINOs is fun and good, but you have to recruit a credible candidate (ala Thune/Pence) to be the assassin.
2) there are much safer bets than Palin in 2012.

[WillK]

I think Obama benefits relative to the 2012 election since I think he could run against a do-nothing GOP House and Palin will still be a GOP candidate in the primaries. 

[Mechaman]

6) Libertarians:  Paul in Kentucky is a joke.  Econ/Social scores of +9/-9 do not sell in any corner of America.

Just like your ability to hyperbole is a total joke.  If you think a majority of "libertarians" in this nation or even on this forum are +9 Econ and -9 Social you're just plain stupid.  An argument could be made that Rand Paul is an extreme fiscal conservative, but the idea that he is an extreme social leftist just makes me LOL.
You say Paul in Kentucky is a joke?  Well guess what?  THAT JOKE WON BY ALMOST TEN POINTS.  Joke my ass.

For the record, the verdict is still out on whether or not Rand Paul is actually "libertarian".  So quit being your usual "make assumptions about everything" self and actually look on Wikipedia or some informative website like that and examine his positions and then maybe I'll take you seriously when you say that the win of Rand Paul is a loss for libertarianism.  Just because his last name is Paul doesn't mean he is automatically libertarian.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

6) Libertarians:  Paul in Kentucky is a joke.  Econ/Social scores of +9/-9 do not sell in any corner of America.

Just like your ability to hyperbole is a total joke.  If you think a majority of "libertarians" in this nation or even on this forum are +9 Econ and -9 Social you're just plain stupid.  An argument could be made that Rand Paul is an extreme fiscal conservative, but the idea that he is an extreme social leftist just makes me LOL.
You say Paul in Kentucky is a joke?  Well guess what?  THAT JOKE WON BY ALMOST TEN POINTS.  Joke my ass.

For the record, the verdict is still out on whether or not Rand Paul is actually "libertarian".  So quit being your usual "make assumptions about everything" self and actually look on Wikipedia or some informative website like that and examine his positions and then maybe I'll take you seriously when you say that the win of Rand Paul is a loss for libertarianism.  Just because his last name is Paul doesn't mean he is automatically libertarian.

Somehow, you merged the two separate statements “Paul in Kentucky is a joke.  Econ/Social scores of +9/-9 do not sell in any corner of America” into one.  

Paul did sell, in KY, by 10, and he does not have a -9 social score, but he does have +9 economic scores and he is still a joke (for one, he can’t speak, which makes him a joke regardless of the degrees he holds).  Unless he denounces the policies of his father, who is just plain evil, he is viewed as an extension of his father, for better or worse.  A non-joke candidate would have won KY by 15-20 points in 2010.

I wouldn’t trust Rand Paul to take out my trash.  Other than being a rubber stamp, he is useless and will be used by the liberals as a whipping post on which to abuse the GOP.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Just like your ability to hyperbole is a total joke.  If you think a majority of "libertarians" in this nation or even on this forum are +9 Econ and -9 Social you're just plain stupid.  

oh, I see you're +8/-8....I had my finger on the wrong key, my mistake. 

[Hash]

Most of the GOP's so-called "libertarians" are social conservatives who just happen to be to the right of the establishment, or so they claim, on spending issues. They're all hypocrites at any rate.

[Bull Moose Base]

Pence looks to be running for governor which suggests Daniels is running and Pence will endorse him.  Come to think of it, Christie may also.  I could see the teabaggers flocking to Daniels under such circumstances.

Decent chance the teabaggers rally around either the candidate who first signed mandatory health insurance into law or the guy who says he's open to raising taxes.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Winners and Losers: 2010 impact on 2012 candidates

2) Palin:  Miller, Angle, ODonnell lost.  GOP should now clearly see that Palin is not anywhere close to being the best candidate for the GOP in 2012

Amen.  I saw Palin on Fox last night.......she's unwatchable.....I had to turn the station.

[Kevin]

Losers,

Palin-See Angle, Miller, O'Donnell, maybe Buck, and quite a few House candidates.

Tea Party-See what happens when you nominate people like Angle or O'Donnell in moderate states like Nevada.

Obama-See Results, approval ratings

Congressional Democratic Leadership-See results

Blue Dogs and Southern Democrats-See results

Rust Belt Democrats-Of all wings of the Democratic party excluding Manchin.

California and most likely Illinois-Totally screwed themselves over gubernatorially(Liberal Democratic Governors), especially since a Republican House and financial bailouts for places like these most likely won't mix.


Winners,

Congressional Republicans-See Results

Moderate and Mainstream Republicans-See  Portman, Kasich, Kirk, Ayotte, Branstad, Snyder, Walker, Corbett, Bass, and Gunita, along with many more across the nation.

Romney and other perspective Republican candidates for 2012-Palin weakened by results, quite embarrassing to her.

Harry Reid-See results,

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Pence looks to be running for governor

what signs make you think he is running for governor and not POTUS?

---

which suggests Daniels is running and Pence will endorse him.  Come to think of it, Christie may also.  I could see the teabaggers flocking to Daniels under such circumstances.

Decent chance the teabaggers rally around either the candidate who first signed mandatory health insurance into law or the guy who says he's open to raising taxes.

what planet are you from?

[Poundingtherock]

This is JV analysis.  Nobody thinks Palin is a "loser" from last night, LOL.

How the hell is romney a winner when Meg Whitman embarrased herself, almost losing by the same percentage as Christine O'donnell while running as a $150 million moderate?  Romney had absolutely zero influence in MA.  Scott Brown might as well look for a new line of work based on the MA results last night.

Even better news for Palin is that Rudy is re-emerging.   You might as well call it for her if NY's mayor gets in and he seems to be headed in that direction, regardless of his delusions

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I think Obama benefits relative to the 2012 election since I think he could run against a do-nothing GOP House 

No. If anything, winning the House benefits the GOP. Remember, Obama's already unpopular now, in 2010, even though his party already controls everything. If something is still wrong two years from now, that's a bad thing for Obama because the Republicans could portray him as not being able to get anything done no matter who runs Congress.

And if everything is OK in 2012, then the voters will likely just retain the status quo, so the GOP House isn't a "bad" thing for Republicans no matter what.

[nhmagic]

Winners

John Boehner - obviously, and I dont see a challenge to him being speaker
The GOP as a whole - winning so deeply with the gubernatorial races and legislative districts puts people on the bench they can run into the next decade, particularly in 2012 and 2014, very healthy...
Mitch McConnell (unfortunately) - he doesnt have to many tea party esque battles in the senate and he also doesnt have to worry about the moderates controlling everything either in the event that the senate was won
Harry Reid - ugh, though this may be for the best
Barbara Boxer - the second of the two boxers in the race and she walloped Fiorina in Los Angeles - still a single misstep in the campaign by Boxer could have given this to Fiorina - she realized early it was going to be tough and adjusted

Draw

Tea Party - impact felt in some places, not so much in others - having been successfully absorbed into the GOP (Rubio is a perfect example of this, as is Ayotte) with an establishment look

Obama - it honestly depends on how things play out, he could have planned for this and we dont know - there was one huge thing I noticed with his speech today and that was no teleprompter, smart move...portends hes realizing the micro-aspects of his approach

Losers

Nancy Pelosi - no competitive or slightly competitive democrat will ever associate in the way they did with her again, forced into retirement

Chucky Schumer and Dick Durbin - no vacancy in the majority leader slot, and people like Webb, McCaskill, Begich, etc are going to vote against him seeing the power of his win.  There is a nasty leadership battle coming though...

Obama - gone are Obama zombies for the most part, and now more people than ever will be taking more rational looks at the policies he promotes.  Also, some dems smell blood in the water and Russ Feingold is unemployed now...where's Hillary btw?

MSNBC - no one watches them, no one ever did

Rust Belt Unions and Card Check - Unions screwed the pooch big last night and only on the west coast were they effective

[opebo]

5) California:  Brown will make a bad situation worse by raising taxes and driving out more businesses.

Winners:
Rubio:  will become the face of the GOP Senate

I'll confine my comments to these two fantasies. 

First, the supply-side fantasy:  CA's future will be to ride the waves of the economic cycle, and taxation levels are extremely periferal to this.  In the depression, no amount of tax reduction will help, and in the boom (if there ever is one), a few percent more tax won't matter at all.

Secondly, the Latino Republican fantasy:  I know you have a tumescence for these swarthy faux-latinos in the GOP, but seriously man, everyone sees through the token.

[J. J.]

I think Obama benefits relative to the 2012 election since I think he could run against a do-nothing GOP House and Palin will still be a GOP candidate in the primaries. 

The problem is the House will start sending things out, showing it is doing something.

[Mr. Morden]

Winner: Haley Barbour

Loser: Mike Huckabee

Under Barbour's watch at the RGA, the GOP picked up quite a few governorships.  Barbour helped the cause by using his power as a human ATM to raise massive amounts of $ for the RGA, which then made its way to critical states.

Huckabee endorsed Vander Plaats, Bauer, and McCollum in the GOP gubernatorial primaries in IA, SC, and FL respectively (three key early primary states), who all ended up losing.  So he's already on the bad side of Branstad, Haley, and Scott.  Which wouldn't have mattered in 2012 if that trio of candidates had gone on to lose the general election.  But they all won.  Even Scott, who was a 50/50 proposition to pull it out, going into election day.  To make matters worse, a Scott campaign staffer alleged that Huckabee was shopping his endorsement for $.  I don't think those two are going to make up any time soon.

[Zarn]

Secondly, the Latino Republican fantasy:  I know you have a tumescence for these swarthy faux-latinos in the GOP, but seriously man, everyone sees through the token.

Except Republicans do have some Hispanic supporters. With over 30% overall, and the support of Cuban-Americans, you are going to end up with some Hispanic candidates. Its only natural. It's just not the majority.

I've outlined how the GOP can better attract Hispanics in another thread the other day, but no one bothered to pay all that much attention.

[tpfkaw]

Moderate Republicans-See  Portman, Kasich, Kirk, Ayotte, Branstad, Snyder, Walker, Corbett, Bass, and Gunita, along with many more across the nation.

Guinta a moderate?

R U serious?

[Rightwingnutjob]

I think one of the biggest wins in this election that the Republicans had was the party's performance in the gubernatorial elections.  Winning the statehouses in Ohio and Florida is absolutely huge.  We all know how important that will be for whoever wins the Republican nomination in 2012.  Republicans also winning the Governorships in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa is also big and will have a very positive effect for the Republican candidate in the Presidential election.

I, for one, also am excited that the Republicans will finally get to control the redrawing of all of these House districts as well.  For years and in many states, we have had to endure the Democrats gerrymandering there way to wins and forcing there agenda on many people that did not share there core beliefs and values.  Now, I hope the Republicans do some gerrymandering of there own to ensure they keep control of the House until atleast 2020.

Just a couple of win win's that came out of the elections for Republicans from my point of view.

[Rightwingnutjob]

Winner: Haley Barbour

Loser: Mike Huckabee

Under Barbour's watch at the RGA, the GOP picked up quite a few governorships.  Barbour helped the cause by using his power as a human ATM to raise massive amounts of $ for the RGA, which then made its way to critical states.

Huckabee endorsed Vander Plaats, Bauer, and McCollum in the GOP gubernatorial primaries in IA, SC, and FL respectively (three key early primary states), who all ended up losing.  So he's already on the bad side of Branstad, Haley, and Scott.  Which wouldn't have mattered in 2012 if that trio of candidates had gone on to lose the general election.  But they all won.  Even Scott, who was a 50/50 proposition to pull it out, going into election day.  To make matters worse, a Scott campaign staffer alleged that Huckabee was shopping his endorsement for $.  I don't think those two are going to make up any time soon.

I don't know just yet how I feel about Barbour as a Presidential candidate but I do know that he did an absolutely fantastic job at the head of the RGA this year.  It will now be much harder for Obama to win states like Ohio and Florida now because of the Republicans that won the Governor's mansion in those states this year. 

I personally like Haley Barbour.  As stated, he wont have any problem with money if he ran.  Huckabee has kind of alienated himself and really didn't perform all that well in his 2008 bid for the nomination, although he was kind of an unknown to some.

[Mechaman]

Just like your ability to hyperbole is a total joke.  If you think a majority of "libertarians" in this nation or even on this forum are +9 Econ and -9 Social you're just plain stupid.  

oh, I see you're +8/-8....I had my finger on the wrong key, my mistake. 

I sure as hell don't represent a majority of people who self-identify as "libertarians" (many would say I'm on the extreme end).  However I don't see eye to eye with Rand Paul on every issue.
For the record.

[hotpprs]

Losers:
Obama(who now has a more difficult road to 2012 because the GOP didn't take back the Senate. He can only somewhat play the GOP race & wealth cards for the next 2 years).
Other big losers, Nancy Pelosi and taxpayers in New York and California.

Winners: Romney (who now has a better chance to win because it won't be 2 years of poor defenseless Obama vs a majority GOP Congress and Supreme Court). Also, because of the Tea Party blunders in Delaware,Nevada and Alaska, people who support Palin will be more wary of choosing her at the top of the ticket.
Other winners, unions in New York, California and Nevada.
Rubio is perhaps the biggest winner of all because the Latino vote is essential to any survival of the GOP party as it is. If he doesn't screw up politically or have a major personal scandal, he is assured of being on a Presidential ticket at the top or VP within the next decade.

Little of both: Sarah Palin. She didn't start the Tea Party, but she certainly was the energy behind it. So she has to get the most credit out of any single individual (in a positive sense), for the huge pickups by the GOP.
On the negative side, as I mentioned above, her chances as being on the top of the GOP ticket in 2012 went down dramatically as she will just be tagged with the 3 big Senate failures above, and too risky to potentially blow such as great opportunity to take back the White House.

[hotpprs]

5) California:  Brown will make a bad situation worse by raising taxes and driving out more businesses.

Winners:
Rubio:  will become the face of the GOP Senate

I'll confine my comments to these two fantasies.  

First, the supply-side fantasy:  CA's future will be to ride the waves of the economic cycle, and taxation levels are extremely periferal to this.  In the depression, no amount of tax reduction will help, and in the boom (if there ever is one), a few percent more tax won't matter at all.

Secondly, the Latino Republican fantasy:  I know you have a tumescence for these swarthy faux-latinos in the GOP, but seriously man, everyone sees through the token.

I don't think Rubio is considered a token to Cuban Americans.
It remains to be seen if he will pick up any support for the GOP on the West Coast.
But he is hardly a token Latino as if he was just appointed to a Cabinet position or as a Presidential Czar.