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Author Topic: Rasmussen Reports Polls Were Biased  (Read 3710 times)
Lunar
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« on: November 03, 2010, 01:47:31 pm »
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/02/live-blogging-election-night/#rasmussen-reports-polls-were-biased

SHOCKING
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2010, 02:29:00 pm »
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I think most polls were biased towards the Republicans in most of the Senate races this year. In particular, Nevada and California.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2010, 04:44:47 pm »
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I don't know.  Didn't PPP have some of the same results?

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J. J.

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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2010, 10:24:29 am »
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He's put out a more detailed analysis.  Note that Rasmussen's numbers would be about 0.4 better in each column if it weren't for that one Hawaii poll. 
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2010, 08:56:45 pm »
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He's put out a more detailed analysis.  Note that Rasmussen's numbers would be about 0.4 better in each column if it weren't for that one Hawaii poll. 

Let's be fair though, how could any "professional" polling company have gotten that Hawaii poll so wrong? It'd be like releasing a poll tomorrow showing Obama losing in D.C. to Sarah Palin.
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2010, 09:44:00 pm »
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If we're on that subject, we could bring up PPP's infamous NY-23 poll, or that SurveyUSA this year which showed Gillibrand and DioGuardi tied.  Every prolific pollster has one poll in a cycle that way misses the mark.
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2010, 12:06:23 am »
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If we're on that subject, we could bring up PPP's infamous NY-23 poll, or that SurveyUSA this year which showed Gillibrand and DioGuardi tied.  Every prolific pollster has one poll in a cycle that way misses the mark.

Exactly. No need to get angry because Rasmussen made a simple error that all pollsters make once in a while.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2010, 12:08:09 am by feeblepizza »Logged

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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2010, 01:45:10 am »
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I think it's consistent error and bias this year which is the issue, not the Hawaii poll.
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Lunar
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2010, 11:31:16 pm »
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Weasel Silver is a delusional liar and a hack. He's been caught in so many lies that nothing he says is credible. He is purposefully manipulating data in order to try to discredit Rasmussen. The fact is, Rasmussen correctly picked the results in several States while others like PPP got the winner wrong.

Rasmussen also incorrectly picked the results in several states, factually.  Rasmussen also factually did not show poll results closer to the actual results than most other mainstream pollsters, on average.  

What evidence are you looking at?

Does anyone think that single-day sample robocalls with zero callbacks, inter-household randomization or cell phone numbers is going to fly as acceptable polling techniques among junkies in 10 years?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2010, 11:37:20 pm »
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Says it all, really.
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KS21
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2010, 06:07:45 pm »
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Rasmussen. BIASED?

Not suprised. Just confrimed what I knew all along. Cheap, low cost polls have very little accuracy.
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Meeker
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« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2010, 07:45:44 pm »
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Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray   FOX News/POR-Rasmussen   Murray 49, Rossi 47   Murray +2
Washington Senate - Rossi vs. Murray   PPP (D)   Murray 48, Rossi 50   Rossi +2

Alaska Senate - Miller vs. McAdams vs. Murkowski   PPP (D)   Miller 37, Murkowski 30, McAdams 30   Miller +7

California Senate - Boxer vs. Fiorina   PPP (D)   Boxer 50, Fiorina 46   Boxer +4
California Senate - Boxer vs. Fiorina   SurveyUSA   Boxer 46, Fiorina 38   Boxer +8

Yes, some of their polls were more accurate than other pollsters. But on average, they were more inaccurate than other pollsters. Taking all polls into account - not just ones you cherry pick - reveals this. What is so difficult to understand about that?
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Franzl
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« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2010, 02:50:44 pm »
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Rasmussen. BIASED?

Not suprised. Just confrimed what I knew all along. Cheap, low cost polls have very little accuracy.

lol
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IDS Attorney General PiT
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« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2010, 03:53:35 pm »
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Rasmussen. BIASED?

Not suprised. Just confrimed what I knew all along. Cheap, low cost polls have very little accuracy.

lol

     Rasmussen messed it up pretty badly, though the general consistency in the error of their polls suggests that they would have performed very well if they had just weighted the polls differently.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2010, 08:02:07 am »
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Should point out that Rasmussen managed to be this bad on average  despite releasing the most polls of anybody. It's really a performance not explainable except by systemic bias (intended or not).
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I may conceivably reconsider.

Knowing me it's more likely than not.
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