2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[redcommander]

I think it is very likely. Obama won't have the privilege of running against a Republican congress like Clinton did, and the Tea Party energy will probably have waned to allow many more excellent candidates to make it through the Republican primaries. This is assuming of course that Republicans put up someone decent in 2012, but could we be seeing gains in the +10 territory?

[Franzl]

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

[SvenssonRS]

Depending on who the GOP nominates for President - and whether or not the inevitably still-existing Tea Party limits itself to primarying people like Hatch and Corker - I think 2012 could be absolutely brutal. So basically, agreed.

[Vepres]

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

Psst, the Republicans don't control the White House or the Senate.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

This - each political cycle is different.

[Franzl]

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

Psst, the Republicans don't control the White House or the Senate.

Still doesn't make it any less stupid to be making these assumptions at this point.

[redcommander]

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

Psst, the Republicans don't control the White House or the Senate.

Still doesn't make it any less stupid to be making these assumptions at this point.

So you think the Democrats will make gains when they hold 21 seats to the Republicans' 10?

[Psychic Octopus]

Only if the economy doesn't turn around in the next two years. If unemployment is still high, and people are hurting, or percieved to be hurting, then Democrats can expect to lose the Senate. There are a lot of weak Democratic incumbets, such as Virginia, Nebraska, Missouri, Ohio, Florida, and Montana. Who knows, though? Democrats could retain all of these. No one knows what the environment will be like in 2012.

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

Yes, I remember seeing those maps from early 2009. "Democrats can expect to pick up three seats, since the economy will be fully recovered, and Obama will be wildly popular. Republicans will probably gain about five House seats, though." Stuff like that was said all the time. It just feels silly now.

[redcommander]

Depending on who the GOP nominates for President - and whether or not the inevitably still-existing Tea Party limits itself to primarying people like Hatch and Corker - I think 2012 could be absolutely brutal. So basically, agreed.

Senators Chaffetz and Blackburn maybe?

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

There should be a lot of close races, but it will depend a lot on the national climate.

Everyone seems to think that Webb, McCaskill and Bill Nelson are weak, I think they're all in an ok position.

[feeblepizza]

Depending on who the GOP nominates for President - and whether or not the inevitably still-existing Tea Party limits itself to primarying people like Hatch and Corker - I think 2012 could be absolutely brutal. So basically, agreed.

Senators Chaffetz and Blackburn maybe?

Oh yes

[SvenssonRS]

Depending on who the GOP nominates for President - and whether or not the inevitably still-existing Tea Party limits itself to primarying people like Hatch and Corker - I think 2012 could be absolutely brutal. So basically, agreed.

Senators Chaffetz and Blackburn maybe?

Aha, we're thinking the same. God knows I wouldn't miss either of the two they'd replace.

But yeah. It all depends on whether or not the Tea Party learns to limit itself. They actually have a surprisingly large list of very viable targets for 2012 - if they stick to those, the Senate showing will be much better next cycle.

[Landslide Lyndon]

There should be a lot of close races, but it will depend a lot on the national climate.

Everyone seems to think that Webb, McCaskill and Bill Nelson are weak, I think they're all in an ok position.

Exactly. Unlike Republicans this year, Schumer picked great candidates in 2006. Brown, Webb, McCaskil and Tester are much better politicians and campaigners than Paul, Johnson and Coats.

[Psychic Octopus]

There should be a lot of close races, but it will depend a lot on the national climate.

Everyone seems to think that Webb, McCaskill and Bill Nelson are weak, I think they're all in an ok position.

McCaskill is doing horrible. Not sure about Webb, but his narrow victory seems to point to a tough re-election battle. I haven't seen much polling, though, and his popularity seems to be waning. Not sure about Florida's Bill Nelson. He could be beaten by someone like Connie Mack or Jeb Bush, but I am not counting on it when the election is two years away.

At this point, it would probably be reasonable to say the GOP takes all three, and it would be equally reasonable to say that the Democrats hold all three. Who knows, really? We shall see.

[Vepres]

You're making precisely the same mistake Democrats made in 2008.

Psst, the Republicans don't control the White House or the Senate.

Still doesn't make it any less stupid to be making these assumptions at this point.

Obviously, but it would take a lot for Democrats to have net gains in 2012.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thirds system makes hanging onto control potentially tricky (and probably impossible 2014-2016), but I think speculation beyond that is a little silly.

[Rococo4]

I think we can generally say that it barring an Obama landslide its going to be tough cycle for Dems, just based on sheer number of seats to defend.  Though I would have talked about how grim the 2010 outllok was the GOP 2 years ago today.

I also think we can generally say who will be vulnerable and who will not, though of course there will always be surprises and unseen events - like 2010 (Dorgan retiring, Feingold in trouble all of a sudden, etc.)

[Mr.Phips]

No.  Obama will be running for reelection, bringing out millions of new young and minority voters.  That will save pretty much everyone but Ben Nelson in Nebraska and a possible open seat in North Dakota. 

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The one thing I look forward to in 2012 is the Maine Republican Primary for Snowe. Should be a fun one.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I remember people here in late 2008 talking about 65 Senate seats for the Dems after 2010...

[nhmagic]

Webb is probably not going to be coming back.  He isnt raising money and doesnt like the job.  That doesnt mean Rs will pickup the seat.

Tester is a moonbat and will be defeated handily in 2012 by whoever the republican nom is.

The others, who knows, could be a good night for dems, could be a good night for reps.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

The last approval rating I saw for Tester was 57%. That was like a year ago though.

[J. J.]

I think it is very likely. Obama won't have the privilege of running against a Republican congress like Clinton did, and the Tea Party energy will probably have waned to allow many more excellent candidates to make it through the Republican primaries. This is assuming of course that Republicans put up someone decent in 2012, but could we be seeing gains in the +10 territory?

We "could."  I would expect expect some gains, if Obama runs, and even pull off a smaller victory.  A lot of that is simply the number of seats that are up.

If Obama becomes the next Jimmy Carter, you could see a ten seat loss.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

There is still SOOOO long to go.

So much can happen between now and then

[Kevin]

I see Nebraska, North Dakota, Missouri, Virginia, Florida and Wisconsin(especially given the weak bench of the State Democratic Party and if Kohl retires) look like pretty good pickup oppertunites for the GOP, even if my assessment looks a little pre-mature and optimistic. Stabenow in Michigan and Brown in Ohio look vulnerable, in both especially given the House and Gubernatorial results for both states, but specifically the firm rebuking Democrats got in Ohio combined with Obama's current approval ratings in the state which can't bode well for Brown.

PA, NJ, WV(depending on how Manchin votes), NM(If Bingaman retires), and NY(if the GOP actually finds a decent candidate to challenge Gillibrand would be secondary target's. Reason being is that even though some of this incumbents could be vulnerable like Casey in PA or Menendez in NJ, it would be a tough fight to defeat them given the nature of the candidates and the states they are running in.

However, all of this isn't to say obviously that the Dems have a couple of good pickup oppertunites of them own, in Nevada given Angle's failure to off the unpopular Reid added with Sandoval's anemic performance, I would imagine Ensign must be worried or will retire in which case this seat would be a tossup. Also in Maine if Snowe is successfully primaried or retires this seat also presents a very good pickup opportunity for the Democrats.  So does Massachusetts, even though that would be difficult against Scott Brown's current popularity, political behavior, actions in the Senate, finances, and electoral organization. The Democrats also get Lieberman's seat in 2012 regardless if he retires or run's again.