2012 a bloodbath for Democrats in the senate?

[DrScholl]

I don't think we'll have a good idea until some time next year of how things will shape up, it's very premature to make assumptions. Economics will dictate the election and if the economy is stabilized to a point where people feel more secure, then it will likely be a very normal election.

[J. J.]

There is still SOOOO long to go.

So much can happen between now and then

There are 21 D's, 10 R's and 2 I's.  The odds that the GOP will gain seats are good.  A prediction of how many is too early.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There should be a lot of close races, but it will depend a lot on the national climate.

Everyone seems to think that Webb, McCaskill and Bill Nelson are weak, I think they're all in an ok position.

Exactly. Unlike Republicans this year, Schumer picked great candidates in 2006. Brown, Webb, McCaskil and Tester are much better politicians and campaigners than Paul, Johnson and Coats.

I don't think those three will be running in OH, VA, MO, MT. Webb, Brown, and Nelson of Florida are in in ok position but not perfect or safe. 

McCaskil's numbers are horrible and I don't think she will be able to do as well in central MO as she did in 2006. Tester's future depends on the environment and his opponent. If it's Rehberg, he probably has a real race and if obama gets trounced in MT, probably an uphill climb.  Ben Nelson is in big trouble in Nebraska.

Brown and Webb certainly have some talent, that won't prevent them from being targetted though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

5-7 seats gone with a possibly of pickups in ME and MA. Net loss of a min of five seats.

[Brittain33]

McCaskill is doing horrible.

That link is February 2009. McCaskill is a very good politician running in a state where Dems are at a slight disadvantage in a normal year and a big disadvantage in an R year. She is someone I expect to be defeated if it's not a good night for Democrats, but I concur with people who say it's too early. I was one of those people predicting a few Senate pickups this year and was very much overtaken by events.

The electorate in 2012 will not be the same one as 2010 which means it's a bit premature to think Herb Kohl is going to get turfed out because Feingold, who always had tough reelections, lost to Tuesday. Scott Brown's looking more vulnerable today than he did last week. We don't even know who's going to be at the head of the R ticket, that makes a big difference.

I think it's pretty certain that Ben Nelson won't be returning and Webb will be a tough hold because of his poor political skills and motivation, but otherwise, the map is much better for Dems than people may realize because they are distracted by the headline number. 2014 is a bloodbath, though.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Scott Brown might not even survive the primary.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/scott-brown-finds-himself_n_778269.html

Tea Party activists didn't have to wait for the results of the 2010 elections to start conspiring about their targets for the next cycle. Sen. Orinn Hatch (R-UT) has long been considered a primary target, alongside Bob Corker (TN), Richard Lugar (IN) and Olympia Snowe (ME). All of the aforementioned are Republicans with a penchant for working in bipartisan fashion, some more than others.

One surprising name popping up on the 2012 target list, however, is an individual that the Tea Party turned into a cult hero of their movement. Scott Brown (R-Mass) has spent the past ten months in office building the framework for his reelection. He's worked with Democrats on a variety of economic initiatives while siding with the Republican caucus on other measures. He has been, as conventional wisdom goes, about as conservative as one can be in Democratic-leaning Massachusetts. But, for some, not conservative enough.

On Wednesday morning Red State's Erick Erickson put Brown on his list of "Potential Tea Party Targets for 2012."

Erickson's site is a hub for Tea Party theology and was one of the earlier indicators of the wave that would define the just-completed cycle. So his inclusion of Brown is noteworthy, not just in what it potentially foreshadows but also because it is an indication of how dispirited conservatives are with the man they helped elect.

That said, while Massachusetts showed some conservative trends in 2010, it's hard to imagine (at least at this point) voters there rallying around a new candidate after the euphoric victory of the first.

[Brittain33]

I'm not in touch with Mass. Republicans like some other people here but I really don't think that's going to happen. Scott Brown may be unpopular with some hard core tea partiers, mostly outside the state, for not being 100% against Obama, but he's still too fresh in Massachusetts to be considered someone to oppose. Also, people in the 80% of the country where Republicans and teabaggers had a very good night may not appreciate that Republicans in Mass. had that great night ten months ago and are a bit chastened this week after getting swamped by Democrats. Scott Brown is their only bright spot.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Don't be so sure. Remember a couple of things :
- The 2012 class is inherently more democratic than the country, so 2006's results are less surprising than one might think.
- Democrats have at least two chances of picking up seats, in Massachusetts and in Maine if Snowe retires or gets primaried
- There's no reason to think democrats could lose more than 6 seats (not counting their gains), ie what they gained in 2006
- This is assuming the republicans will have a good year in 2012, nothing is less sure

My bet is a net republican gain of 2-3 seats, which would be enough for democrats to hold on. Of course, far better of far worse scenarioes are fairly possible.

[Brittain33]

Don't be so sure. Remember a couple of things :
- The 2012 class is inherently more democratic than the country, so 2006's results are less surprising than one might think.
- Democrats have at least two chances of picking up seats, in Massachusetts and in Maine if Snowe retires or gets primaried
- There's no reason to think democrats could lose more than 6 seats (not counting their gains), ie what they gained in 2006
- This is assuming the republicans will have a good year in 2012, nothing is less sure

My bet is a net republican gain of 2-3 seats, which would be enough for democrats to hold on. Of course, far better of far worse scenarioes are fairly possible.

Yes, the southeast is almost entirely absent from this class.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of course, it's highly likely that democrats lose the Senate in 2014, especially if Pryor, Landrieu or Baucus retire, but they could easily regain it just two years later.

[Skill and Chance]

Of course, it's highly likely that democrats lose the Senate in 2014, especially if Pryor, Landrieu or Baucus retire, but they could easily regain it just two years later.

If Obama gets re-elected, 2014 will be the bloodbath year.  If Obama loses, 2012 will be the bloodbath year, and unless the GOP president is very well-liked in 2014, the Dems won't lose much more that year.

[Whacker77]

As a conservative, I'm hopeful about 2012 in the Senate, but we have no idea what the conditions will be in 2012.  Just look at how things changed in the last two years.  We can't discount the R presidential nominee either.  If it's a dud like Palin or Huckabee, many of these guys might not try for the seats.  If Jeb Bush runs, well that's another story.

Unfortunately, the bench isn't deep for Republicans thanks to 2006 and 2008.  ND, MO, MT, VA, OH, FL, NE, and even HA look like possibilities for Republicans, but who runs?  Rehberg in MT, Lingle in HA, and then who else?  That's the problem I see for Republicans.  Throw some names at me for these states.

As for Snowe and Brown, they're not going to be primaried or retire.  Snowe will win and Brown's got at least a puncher's chance.  Certainly don't see any Republican retirements right now.  At least not ones that would make competitive races.  We went through that in 2006.

[Skill and Chance]

As a conservative, I'm hopeful about 2012 in the Senate, but we have no idea what the conditions will be in 2012.  Just look at how things changed in the last two years.  We can't discount the R presidential nominee either.  If it's a dud like Palin or Huckabee, many of these guys might not try for the seats.  If Jeb Bush runs, well that's another story.

Unfortunately, the bench isn't deep for Republicans thanks to 2006 and 2008.  ND, MO, MT, VA, OH, FL, NE, and even HA look like possibilities for Republicans, but who runs?  Rehberg in MT, Lingle in HA, and then who else?  That's the problem I see for Republicans.  Throw some names at me for these states.

As for Snowe and Brown, they're not going to be primaried or retire.  Snowe will win and Brown's got at least a puncher's chance.  Certainly don't see any Republican retirements right now.  At least not ones that would make competitive races.  We went through that in 2006.

ND: Lt. Governor or Attorney General or something?  I think they are all GOP
MO: one of the GOP congressmen or the state auditor
OH: No great candidates come to mind unless Kasich wants a change, but Brown is so liberal that a rando might win here
VA: Bolling or Allen or Randy Forbes (the AG Cuccinelli might try, but he would likely lose to Webb)
FL: Jeb Bush?  All of the statewide offices are held by the GOP, so the possibilities are virtually endless
NE: Heineman (the governor with 70% approval)- this is as over as ND 2010 if he runs

Also, Capito could try to take out Manchin in WV, hoping that Obama being on the ballot will hurt Manchin.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I wouldn't be sure of anything, and it's way too far out to make any sure prediction. It all depends on the national environment.

Snowe is likely to be teabagged and Brown is at risk as well. Ensign will be in trouble as well for his ethical problems. He could face a primary challenge but I doubt he'll be teabagged: he votes in line with the Oklahoma duo.

[Whacker77]

Snowe is not going to be challenged by anyone who can beat her in a primary.  Neither will Brown.  Ensign is likely to retire, but Dean Heller will take his place.  As for Virginia, lots of Republicans like Cuccinelli.

[Capitan Zapp Brannigan]

Cuccinelli won't play well outside a Republican Primary, he's seen as kind of out there. I think running George Allen again is there best chance to pick up that seat.

[dmmidmi]

As a conservative, I'm hopeful about 2012 in the Senate, but we have no idea what the conditions will be in 2012.  Just look at how things changed in the last two years.  We can't discount the R presidential nominee either.  If it's a dud like Palin or Huckabee, many of these guys might not try for the seats.  If Jeb Bush runs, well that's another story.

Unfortunately, the bench isn't deep for Republicans thanks to 2006 and 2008.  ND, MO, MT, VA, OH, FL, NE, and even HA look like possibilities for Republicans, but who runs?  Rehberg in MT, Lingle in HA, and then who else?  That's the problem I see for Republicans.  Throw some names at me for these states.

As for Snowe and Brown, they're not going to be primaried or retire.  Snowe will win and Brown's got at least a puncher's chance.  Certainly don't see any Republican retirements right now.  At least not ones that would make competitive races.  We went through that in 2006.

ND: Lt. Governor or Attorney General or something?  I think they are all GOP
MO: one of the GOP congressmen or the state auditor
OH: No great candidates come to mind unless Kasich wants a change, but Brown is so liberal that a rando might win here
VA: Bolling or Allen or Randy Forbes (the AG Cuccinelli might try, but he would likely lose to Webb)
FL: Jeb Bush?  All of the statewide offices are held by the GOP, so the possibilities are virtually endless
NE: Heineman (the governor with 70% approval)- this is as over as ND 2010 if he runs

Also, Capito could try to take out Manchin in WV, hoping that Obama being on the ballot will hurt Manchin.

This is how much Obama hurt the Democrat in the last statewide race in West Virginia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_West_Virginia,_2008

If Capito wanted that seat, this was the year to do it. She missed her chance, and she'll have to settle for the job that will soon be vacated by Joe Manchin.

[Whacker77]

Cuccinelli won't play well outside a Republican Primary, he's seen as kind of out there. I think running George Allen again is there best chance to pick up that seat.

Heard that about their current governor as well.  Considering he gets just one term, maybe he'll run.

[Mercenary]

Republicans will gain the senate and lose the house. Just cause that'd be humorous.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You all do realise that Capito can be hit from unusual angles for a Republican candidate in this day and age, right?

[Psychic Octopus]

McCaskill is doing horrible.

That link is February 2009. McCaskill is a very good politician running in a state where Dems are at a slight disadvantage in a normal year and a big disadvantage in an R year. She is someone I expect to be defeated if it's not a good night for Democrats, but I concur with people who say it's too early. I was one of those people predicting a few Senate pickups this year and was very much overtaken by events.

The electorate in 2012 will not be the same one as 2010 which means it's a bit premature to think Herb Kohl is going to get turfed out because Feingold, who always had tough reelections, lost to Tuesday. Scott Brown's looking more vulnerable today than he did last week. We don't even know who's going to be at the head of the R ticket, that makes a big difference.

I think it's pretty certain that Ben Nelson won't be returning and Webb will be a tough hold because of his poor political skills and motivation, but otherwise, the map is much better for Dems than people may realize because they are distracted by the headline number. 2014 is a bloodbath, though.

The link is from 2009, but Pollster's graph is updated up to current time. PPP recently showed her with 40% Approval, 53% Disapproval, and have shown her at a net negative for quite some time. She is definitely a weak incumbent, and if the Republicans nominate a good candidate, she can be taken down.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Republicans will gain the senate and lose the house. Just cause that'd be humorous.

Actually that's not really that far fetched.  

[Brittain33]

The link is from 2009, but Pollster's graph is updated up to current time. PPP recently showed her with 40% Approval, 53% Disapproval, and have shown her at a net negative for quite some time. She is definitely a weak incumbent, and if the Republicans nominate a good candidate, she can be taken down.

Aha, thanks.

Needless to say, her prospects in 2012 depend greatly on the generic D vs. R numbers improving for Democrats, and I blame that for holding her down in approval now. I'm sure she'd have lost to a competent Republican if she had to run now, and I believe her approvals can certainly change if the public sours on Republicans (or allows its souring to benefit the Democrats, since Republicans already have low approvals.)

[King]

As usually, objective "independents" on this website spend 5 pages making gloat predictions of the Democratic Party's demise.

At least when Dems do it, they actually admit to being Dems.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Republicans will gain the senate and lose the house. Just cause that'd be humorous.

Actually, that's quite possible. The way the class of 2012 is stacked then depending on what the situation is in 2012, anything from a +2 gain for the Democrats to a +16 gain for the GOP is possible.  In a neutral year, I'd expect a +5 or 6 gain for the Republicans and if 2012 is like 2010, I'd expect a +10 to +12 gain for the GOP.

So, in a slightly off year for the GOP, gaining just enough to retake the Senate while just losing the House is about what I'd expect.