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Author Topic: 919,000 jobs added in October  (Read 1565 times)
Beet
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« on: November 05, 2010, 03:48:51 pm »
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"Combined with increases in the workweek and hourly earnings, the employment gain points to an economy that is strengthening into the end of the year. Economists at Morgan Stanley raised their tracking estimate for fourth-quarter growth to 3.5 percent from 2.5 percent today, in part due to an improving outlook for consumer spending.

Before adjusting for seasonal variations, the payroll count last month climbed by 919,000, the biggest October gain since 2004, todays report showed.

The October gain is the biggest weve seen in a while, so that strength was spread back to August and September, Chris Manning, the national benchmark branch chief at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, said today in an interview. If you reflected it all in October, it would have appeared that you had a big jump.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-05/payroll-data-manipulation-may-have-hid-gain-of-240-000-jobs-greenlaw-says.html
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2010, 08:53:33 pm »
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And the GOP's greatest nightmare might... just might be coming true.

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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2010, 11:41:59 pm »
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And the GOP's greatest nightmare might... just might be coming true.



I'm sure the Dems could've used this last month though.Tongue

But yeah, if this keeps up, the GOP is going to be facing hell in 2012.
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« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2010, 12:31:02 am »
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And the GOP's greatest nightmare might... just might be coming true.



I'm sure the Dems could've used this last month though.Tongue

But yeah, if this keeps up, the GOP is going to be facing hell in 2012.

It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP actually took credit for it.
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Sbane
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« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2010, 12:56:22 am »
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Republicans will try to take credit for it. Voters will reward them by keeping them in the house, while overwhelmingly reelecting Obama over the sh**tty candidate the Republicans are bound to put up.
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« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2010, 01:05:28 am »
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Speaker Boehner will take the credit for this. Of course anything bad about the economy is Obama's fault.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2010, 01:16:49 am »
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Republicans will try to take credit for it. Voters will reward them by keeping them in the house, while overwhelmingly reelecting Obama over the sh**tty candidate the Republicans are bound to put up.

Ticket splitting is a thing of the past.  If Obama wins reelection handily, its almost impossible to imagine the Democrats not regaining the House.  If he wins by a small margin, they will probably narrowly keep it.  The Democratic percentage of the House vote has tracked identically with the Democratic percentage in Presidential races in Presidential years. 
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phk
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« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2010, 02:28:11 am »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.
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Lief
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« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2010, 06:02:01 am »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.

Yes, which is still not nearly enough to bring the unemployment rate below 8% by November 2012. Obama is not going to win re-election with two more years of 8-9% unemployment.
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« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2010, 01:29:00 pm »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.

Whatever.  It's still job creation and all signs point to an economy on the rebound. 
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phk
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« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2010, 01:43:59 pm »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.

Whatever.  It's still job creation and all signs point to an economy on the rebound. 

So at this rate, we'll be back to pre-recession employment levels just in time for the, um, midterm elections of 2018.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2010, 02:08:02 pm »
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I'd also argue that improving economic news is good for all incumbents, whether they be president, senator or house member. 
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Rowan
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« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2010, 09:17:35 pm »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.

Whatever.  It's still job creation and all signs point to an economy on the rebound. 

+144K jobs a month is barely treading water.
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« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2010, 09:30:41 pm »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.

Whatever.  It's still job creation and all signs point to an economy on the rebound. 

+144K jobs a month is barely treading water.

And we were losing them before.  Monthly job growth will pick up more as the economy continues to rebound.  I'm optimistic. 
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« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2010, 09:48:53 pm »
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the payroll count "climbed" by 919k? what does that even mean?
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2010, 09:01:22 am »
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the payroll count "climbed" by 919k? what does that even mean?

Its called addition, shua.
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2010, 10:01:24 am »
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This wasn't net job creation which was 144k or so.

Whatever.  It's still job creation and all signs point to an economy on the rebound. 

Yeah right, at 17% real unemployment I doubt things will be getting better soon.
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2010, 12:07:36 pm »
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the payroll count "climbed" by 919k? what does that even mean?

Its called addition, shua.

but who says something the number of something "climbed" by x, if x is the number of new jobs but y is the number of old jobs lost? wouldn't the number by which something climbed be x - y? but even that is not what is happening.

okay - I looked into it, and here's the story as best as I can figure out: payroll did not climb 919k in one month. It climbed by that amount since last October. That's what I assume is meant by "annual October increase." If nearly a million jobs were created in one month it would be big news. As it stands if you type in "919000 jobs" into google, you get this forum discussion.
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phk
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2010, 03:20:52 pm »
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Btw separate measures were less sanguine.

For example Payrolls processed by ADP  only implied a seasonally adjusted gain of 43,000 private-sector jobs for October, while civilian employment according to the volatile BLS survey of households was down 330,000 for October.

Overall, I continue to see an economy that is growing, perhaps by a little more than suggested by last month's numbers. But the slowness of that growth continues to be disappointing.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2010, 03:26:24 pm by phknrocket1k »Logged

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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2010, 04:37:58 pm »
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And the GOP's greatest nightmare might... just might be coming true.



I'm sure the Dems could've used this last month though.Tongue

But yeah, if this keeps up, the GOP is going to be facing hell in 2012.

It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP actually took credit for it.

Maybe some of the Democrats in the Senate could take credit for it too. 
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Badger
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« Reply #20 on: November 09, 2010, 02:09:08 am »
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Speaker Boehner will take the credit for this. Of course anything bad about the economy is Obama's fault.

natch.
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« Reply #21 on: November 09, 2010, 03:09:59 am »
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Speaker Boehner will take the credit for this. Of course anything bad about the economy is Obama's fault.

natch.

Well of course it was only the incipient relief from Fascism and taxation implied by the GOP wave which made the heroic Small Business Man sufficiently emboldened to hire all those lazies.
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« Reply #22 on: November 09, 2010, 12:35:53 pm »
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And the GOP's greatest nightmare might... just might be coming true.



I'm sure the Dems could've used this last month though.Tongue

But yeah, if this keeps up, the GOP is going to be facing hell in 2012.

It wouldn't surprise me if the GOP actually took credit for it.

Maybe some of the Democrats in the Senate could take credit for it too.  

credit for what, exactly?  there is a reason why numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Obama is going to lose in a landslide of historic proportions if the economy only averages +140k jobs/month for the next two years, because that would mean that unemployment continues to climb.
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« Reply #23 on: November 17, 2010, 02:36:07 pm »
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