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| | |-+  Gubernatorial races yet to be called 2.0
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Author Topic: Gubernatorial races yet to be called 2.0  (Read 1665 times)
Antonio V
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« on: November 07, 2010, 06:47:28 am »
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If/when the mods eventually decide to un-merge the original topic from the general results one, they can merge it to this one.

Anyways, the NY Times still didn't call four races.

Vermont : Shumlin leads by 1.8 pts with 98% reporting. If it were a normal race, it should already have been called, but Shumlin didn't get an absolute majority of votes, so the legislature is supposed to choose the Governor. Still, Dubie's odds are literally nil.

Connecticut : Malloy leads by 0.7 pts with 100% reporting. Since the margin necessary for a recount must be inferior to 0.5, Malloy has legally won the election and the race should be called. Still, it was a weird race, and a massive upset is still possible.

Illinois : Quinn leads by 0.53 pts with 100% reporting. The margin is small, but is over 0.5 pts, and Quinn has led all along. No recount possible, the election is over. The Atlas has "called" the race and the NYT should too.

Minnesota : Dayton leads by 0.42 pts with 100% reporting. A recount is possible, but it would be a massive upset if he lost at this point.


Interesting to see how all the uncalled races favor the democrats. Tongue
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2010, 07:01:10 am »
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The AP has called Illinois...I'm sure some others have...and Brady CONCEDED!
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2010, 07:16:54 am »
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The AP has called Illinois...I'm sure some others have...and Brady CONCEDED!

Indeed, that's why I wonder why they didn't.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2010, 09:35:04 am »
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CT and IL have been called according to CNN.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2010, 09:46:51 am »
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Is it inevitable that the Minnesota race will be decided at courts?
Can't the courts decide that the margin is too big to be reversed and toss the case out?
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2010, 11:12:08 am »
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Vermont : Shumlin leads by 1.8 pts with 98% reporting. If it were a normal race, it should already have been called, but Shumlin didn't get an absolute majority of votes, so the legislature is supposed to choose the Governor. Still, Dubie's odds are literally nil.

Ah, I forgot about that. Is Shumlin assumed to win a plurality of votes? If so, the Democratic legislature would certainly confirm a leading Democratic candidate.
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2010, 11:37:18 am »
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Democrats win!
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Antonio V
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« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2010, 01:59:35 pm »
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Vermont : Shumlin leads by 1.8 pts with 98% reporting. If it were a normal race, it should already have been called, but Shumlin didn't get an absolute majority of votes, so the legislature is supposed to choose the Governor. Still, Dubie's odds are literally nil.

Ah, I forgot about that. Is Shumlin assumed to win a plurality of votes? If so, the Democratic legislature would certainly confirm a leading Democratic candidate.

There's no way Shumlin could trail Dubie. He actually retains a small chance to eventually win an absolute majority (he need 0.4 more points for that). I doubt he will, but that changes nothing.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2010, 02:57:20 pm »
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Is it inevitable that the Minnesota race will be decided at courts?
Can't the courts decide that the margin is too big to be reversed and toss the case out?

Dayton's lead is so much bigger than the 2008 race that it's not likely a repeat of that will happen. The only reason Coleman could keep delaying the race forever was because there was enough rejected absentee ballots that it was mathematically possible for him to overtake Franken via them (though not possible in any conceivable scenario.) The rejected absentees (about 3000) is far smaller than Dayton's lead, so if Dayton keeps the same lead after the recount Emmer has no grounds to sue. Also Ritchie took special actions to make things smoother to avoid such a scenario again.
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« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2010, 03:03:44 pm »
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NYT sez these counties are not 100% completed in VT: Chittenden/Burlington 96%, Franklin 87%, Essex 92%, Bennington 94%, Windham 96%. All but Essex and Franklin voted for Shumlin.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #10 on: November 07, 2010, 03:10:14 pm »
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NYT sez these counties are not 100% completed in VT: Chittenden/Burlington 96%, Franklin 87%, Essex 92%, Bennington 94%, Windham 96%. All but Essex and Franklin voted for Shumlin.

It would require Dubie to win 90% of the remaining vote to get a plurality. Other races have been called with far more uncertainty. I really don't worry about VT. Tongue
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #11 on: November 07, 2010, 04:58:30 pm »
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VT SOS' site is surprisingly sh**tty, so I couldn't find out which towns are left to count (and to check how Stowe and Jeffersonville voted).
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« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2010, 05:04:48 pm »
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VT SOS' site is surprisingly sh**tty, so I couldn't find out which towns are left to count (and to check how Stowe and Jeffersonville voted).

I know! I once was trying to go through Dubie's campaign finance disclosures and they were completely unsearchable, all they have are giant 100 page .pdfs you have to manually go through.
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« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2010, 05:56:27 pm »
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NYT sez these counties are not 100% completed in VT: Chittenden/Burlington 96%, Franklin 87%, Essex 92%, Bennington 94%, Windham 96%. All but Essex and Franklin voted for Shumlin.

How does it take them nearly a week to count all the ballots?!
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« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2010, 06:18:12 pm »
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In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2010, 07:57:32 am »
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In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).

How efficient and progressive!

Meanwhile in Louisiana and Mississippi, all of the votes have been counted.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2010, 08:05:22 am »
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In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).

How efficient and progressive!

Meanwhile in Louisiana and Mississippi, all of the votes have been counted.

We don't need another cinyc. Also, Mississippi and Alabama don't post anything until the official results are reported, either.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2010, 10:34:13 am »
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In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).

How efficient and progressive!

Meanwhile in Louisiana and Mississippi, all of the votes have been counted.

...Are you seriously drawing a parallel between a State's ideology and its ability to publish results rapidly ?

Epic fail.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
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« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2010, 10:49:54 am »
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The Altas forum has now "called" Connecticut too, which seems right. But what I don't understand is that the NYT site has 100% reporting, but less total votes counted that the Atlas which has 99% reporting. Clearly, something weird is going on there.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
Antonio V
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« Reply #19 on: November 10, 2010, 03:08:42 pm »
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So the NYT eventually called Illinois and Connecticut. I still think they could also call Vermont, but that's a symbolical issue.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #20 on: November 10, 2010, 03:30:22 pm »
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In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).

How efficient and progressive!

Meanwhile in Louisiana and Mississippi, all of the votes have been counted.

We don't need another cinyc. Also, Mississippi and Alabama don't post anything until the official results are reported, either.

Yeah, pointing out that the election reporting systems in the Northeast suck and need to be updated to this century is taboo.  Even early 2000s will do - but those states' reporting systems are stuck in the last century. 

Louisiana does have the best election results reporting system of any state - and continues to upgrade it year-after-year to keep it ahead of its peers.  That's a fact - not an opinion.  Delaware's new system is good.  Most of the Enright systems states (AZ, KY, FL, etc) aren't bad either, but are complex to navigate and make it a bit more difficult to import results unless you know where to look.  California is okay.  Pennsylvania and West Virginia aren't great, but aren't terrible.  Alaska provides precinct-level results, but in a very Excel-unfriendly format.  Ditto Hawaii, at least for intial results.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #21 on: November 12, 2010, 04:56:49 am »
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Vermont was finally called. Let's hope MN will follow soon.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #22 on: November 12, 2010, 05:07:36 am »
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Vermont was finally called. Let's hope MN will follow soon.

There's going to be a recount in Minnesota that won't start for another few weeks. I doubt they call it anytime soon.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #23 on: November 12, 2010, 11:21:46 am »
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lol minnesota
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« Reply #24 on: November 12, 2010, 08:04:42 pm »
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In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).

How efficient and progressive!

Meanwhile in Louisiana and Mississippi, all of the votes have been counted.

Given the general lack of protection against fraud in the US, the New England way is, in fact, reasonably efficient and quite progressive. The only reason the US elections function at all is that things are very decentralized: this, essencially, tends to ensure that incentives to cheat are smallish and that whatevve cheating there is roughly proportional to actual vote. The more decentralized the vote administration and counting is, the more likely it will stay that way.
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