Gubernatorial races yet to be called 2.0

[Antonio the Sixth]

If/when the mods eventually decide to un-merge the original topic from the general results one, they can merge it to this one.

Anyways, the NY Times still didn't call four races.

Vermont Shumlin leads by 1.8 pts with 98% reporting. If it were a normal race, it should already have been called, but Shumlin didn't get an absolute majority of votes, so the legislature is supposed to choose the Governor. Still, Dubie's odds are literally nil.

Connecticut Malloy leads by 0.7 pts with 100% reporting. Since the margin necessary for a recount must be inferior to 0.5, Malloy has legally won the election and the race should be called. Still, it was a weird race, and a massive upset is still possible.

Illinois Quinn leads by 0.53 pts with 100% reporting. The margin is small, but is over 0.5 pts, and Quinn has led all along. No recount possible, the election is over. The Atlas has "called" the race and the NYT should too.

Minnesota Dayton leads by 0.42 pts with 100% reporting. A recount is possible, but it would be a massive upset if he lost at this point.


Interesting to see how all the uncalled races favor the democrats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The AP has called Illinois...I'm sure some others have...and Brady CONCEDED!

Indeed, that's why I wonder why they didn't.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vermont Shumlin leads by 1.8 pts with 98% reporting. If it were a normal race, it should already have been called, but Shumlin didn't get an absolute majority of votes, so the legislature is supposed to choose the Governor. Still, Dubie's odds are literally nil.

Ah, I forgot about that. Is Shumlin assumed to win a plurality of votes? If so, the Democratic legislature would certainly confirm a leading Democratic candidate.

There's no way Shumlin could trail Dubie. He actually retains a small chance to eventually win an absolute majority (he need 0.4 more points for that). I doubt he will, but that changes nothing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

NYT sez these counties are not 100% completed in VT: Chittenden/Burlington 96%, Franklin 87%, Essex 92%, Bennington 94%, Windham 96%. All but Essex and Franklin voted for Shumlin.

It would require Dubie to win 90% of the remaining vote to get a plurality. Other races have been called with far more uncertainty. I really don't worry about VT.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In New England, each town reports its election results separately. There's no central tabulation of the vote like in other states until the official results are released. The AP has to call each town's elections officials to get the numbers, and they probably haven't bothered to do so with half the tiny towns in the state (or they're not answering because there's one person in the office who works part-time).

How efficient and progressive!

Meanwhile in Louisiana and Mississippi, all of the votes have been counted.

...Are you seriously drawing a parallel between a State's ideology and its ability to publish results rapidly ?

Epic fail.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Altas forum has now "called" Connecticut too, which seems right. But what I don't understand is that the NYT site has 100% reporting, but less total votes counted that the Atlas which has 99% reporting. Clearly, something weird is going on there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So the NYT eventually called Illinois and Connecticut. I still think they could also call Vermont, but that's a symbolical issue.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Vermont was finally called. Let's hope MN will follow soon.