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Author Topic: State-by-State Polling 2010 - An Analysis  (Read 1975 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: November 07, 2010, 10:16:33 am »
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I've decided to put the arbitrary cut-off date at September 22, six weeks before the election - polls that do not end by that date are not counted.  Rounding will be used (as the polls round too).

This is a preliminary overview.  It will be finalized and ranked by pollster at a later point.

Unlike 2008, I have included all partisan polls except for those done for a specific campaign since it appears like more and more of our polling is coming from firms with partisan affiliation.

House polling has been included, where present, for states in only one House district.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: November 07, 2010, 10:17:03 am »
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Alabama Senate - Shelby 65%, Barnes 35% (Shelby +30)
(last poll - 9/21) Rasmussen (Shelby +28)

Alabama Governor - Bentley 58%, Sparks 42% (Bentley +16)
University of Southern Alabama (Bentley +13)

Alaska Senate - Murkowski 41%, Miller 34%, McAdams 24% (Murkowski +7)
1. Hays Research (non-DSCC) (Murkowski +5)
2. Dittman Research (Murkowski +10)
3. Craciun Research (Murkowski +11)
4. CNN/Time (Tied b/w Murkowski and Miller)
5. Rasmussen (Miller +1)
6. Public Policy Polling (Miller +7)
7. Ivan Moore (Miller +15)

Alaska Governor - Parnell 59%, Berkowitz 38% (Parnell +21)
1. Ivan Moore (Parnell +18)
2. CNN/Time (Parnell +26)
3. Rasmussen (Parnell +13)
4. Dittman Research (Parnell +12)
5. Public Policy Polling (Parnell +11)

Arizona Senate - McCain 59%, Glassman 35% (McCain +24)
1. Rasmussen (McCain +21)
2. Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos (McCain +18)
3. Behavior Research Center (McCain +34)

Arizona Governor - Brewer 55%, Goddard 42% (Brewer +13)
1. Rasmussen (Brewer +14)
2. Behavior Research Center (Brewer +11)
3. Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos (Brewer +8)

Arkansas Senate - Boozman 58%, Lincoln 37% (Lincoln +21)
1. Mason-Dixon (Boozman +21)
2. (tie) Rasmussen (Boozman +19)
University of Arkansas (Boozman +19)
4. CNN/Time (Boozman +14)
5. Hendrix College/Talk Business Research (Boozman +13)

Arkansas Governor - Beebe 64%, Keet 34% (Beebe +30)
1. CNN/Time (Beebe +27)
2. Mason-Dixon (Beebe +26)
3. Rasmussen (Beebe +22)
4. Hendrix College/Talk Business Research (Beebe +14)

California Senate - Boxer 52%, Fiorina 43% (Boxer +9)
1. (tie) Field (Boxer +8)
GQR/American Viewpoint/LA Times (Boxer +8)
Suffolk University (Boxer +10)
SurveyUSA (Boxer +8)
5. Angus Reid (Boxer +7)
6. (tie) CNN/Time (Boxer +5)
Public Policy Institute of California (Boxer +5)
8. (tie) FOX/Rasmussen (Boxer +4)
Public Policy Polling (Boxer +4)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Boxer +4)
11. Rasmussen (Boxer +3)
12. Ipsos (Boxer +1)

California Governor - Brown 54%, Whitman 41% (Brown +13)
1. GQR/American Viewpoint/LA Times (Brown +13)
2. SurveyUSA (Brown +11)
3. (tie) Field (Brown +10)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Brown +10)
5. FOX/Rasmussen (Brown +9)
6. (tie) Public Policy Institute of California (Brown +8)
Suffolk University (Brown +8)
8. CNN/Time (Brown +7)
9. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Brown +5)
Angus Reid (Brown +5)
11. (tie) Rasmussen (Brown +4)
Ipsos (Brown +4)

Colorado Senate - Bennet 48%, Buck 47% (Bennet +1)
1. (tie) RBI Strategies (Bennet +1)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Bennet +1)
3. SurveyUSA (Tied)
4. (tie) CNN/Time (Buck +1)
Public Policy Polling (Buck +1)
6. Ipsos (Buck +3)
7. (tie) FOX/Rasmussen (Buck +4)
Marist College (Buck +4)
Rasmussen (Buck +4)

Colorado Governor - Hickenlooper 51%, Tancredo 37%, Maes 11% (Hickenlooper +14)
1. (tie) CNN/Time (Hickenlooper +14)
RBI Strategies (Hickenlooper +14)
3. Ipsos (Hickenlooper +11)
4. SurveyUSA (Hickenlooper +10)
5. YouGov/Polimetrix (Hickenlooper +7)
5. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Hickenlooper +5)
Rasmussen (Hickenlooper +5)
7. Marist College (Hickenlooper +4)
8. FOX News/Rasmussen (Hickenlooper +3)
9. Magellan Strategies (Hickenlooper +1)

Connecticut Senate - Blumenthal 55%, McMahon 43% (Blumenthal +12)
1. (tie) CNN/Time (Blumenthal +13)
FOX/Rasmussen (Blumenthal +11)
Public Policy Polling (Blumenthal +11)
4. (tie) Quinnipiac University (Blumenthal +9)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Blumenthal +9)
6. Merriman River Group (Blumenthal +8)
8. Rasmussen (Blumenthal +7)
9. Suffolk University (Blumenthal +18)

Connecticut Governor - Malloy 50%, Foley 49% (Malloy +1)
1. Merriman River Group (Tied)
2. FOX News/Rasmussen (Malloy +3)
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (Malloy +4)
4. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Foley +2)
Rasmussen (Foley +2)
6. Quinnipiac University (Foley +3)
7. CNN/Time (Malloy +8)
8. Suffolk University (Malloy +11)

Delaware Senate - Coons 56%, O'Donnell 40% (Coons +16)
1. FOX/Rasmussen (Coons +16)
2. Magellan Strategies (Coons +18)
3. (tie) CNN/Time (Coons +19)
University of Delaware (Coons +19)
5. (tie) Fairleigh Dickinson University (Coons +21)
Rasmussen (Coons +11)
SurveyUSA (Coons +21)
8. Monmouth University (Coons +10)

Delaware House - Carney 57%, Urqehart 41% (Carney +16)
1. (tie) Fairleigh Dickinson University (Carney +15)
University of Delaware (Carney +17)
3. Monmouth University (Carney +7)

Florida Senate - Rubio 49%, Crist 30%, Meek 20% (Rubio +19)
1. Miami-Dade College (Rubio +19)
2. Rasmussen (Rubio +20)
3. (tie) Mason-Dixon (Rubio +17)
Public Policy Polling (Rubio +17)
Susquehanna (Rubio +17)
6. Ipsos (Rubio +15)
7. (tie) CNN/Time (Rubio +14)
Quinnipiac University (Rubio +14)
9. YouGov/Polimetrix (Rubio +12)
10. Suffolk University (Rubio +8)
11. (tie) Public Opinion Strategies (Rubio +7)
Zogby (Rubio +7)

Florida Governor - Scott 49%, Sink 48% (Scott +1)
1. YouGov/Polimetrix (Tied)
2. (tie) CNN/Time (Scott +3)
Rasmussen (Scott +3)
Ipsos (Scott +3)
5. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Sink +1)
Quinnipiac University (Sink +1)
7. (tie) Public Opinion Strategies (Scott +4)
Susquehanna (Scott +4)
9. University of South Florida (Scott +5)
10. Mason-Dixon (Sink +3)
11. Miami-Dade College (Scott +6)
12. Zogby (Sink +4)
13. Suffolk University (Sink +7)

Georgia Senate - Isakson 58%, Thurmond 39% (Isakson +19)
1. Landmark Communications (Isakson +21)
2. Mason-Dixon (Isakson +23)
3. SurveyUSA (Isakson +24)
4. Rasmussen (Isakson +30)
5. Insider Advantage (Isakson +31)

Georgia Governor - Deal 53%, Barnes 43% (Deal +10)
1. (tie) Rasmussen (Deal +10)
SurveyUSA (Deal +10)
3. Landmark Communications (Deal +8)
4. Mason-Dixon (Deal +7)
5. Insider Advantage (Deal +6)

Hawaii Senate - Inouye 75%, Cavasso 21% (Inouye +54)
1. Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos (Inouye +36)
2. Rasmussen (Inouye +13)

Hawaii Governor - Abercrombie 59%, Aiona 41% (Abercrombie +18)
1. Ward Research (Abercrombie +8)
2. Merriman River Group (Abercrombie +3)
3. (tie) Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos (Abercrombie +2)
Rasmussen (Abercrombie +2)

Idaho Senate - Crapo 71%, Sullivan 25% (Crapo +46)
1. Mason-Dixon (Crapo +44)
(other last poll - 8/31) Rasmussen (Crapo +39)

Idaho Governor - Otter 59%, Allred 33%
(Otter +26)
1. Mason-Dixon (Otter +22)
(other last poll - 8/31) Rasmussen (Otter +16)

Illinois Senate - Kirk 48%, Giannoulias 46% (Kirk +2)
1. Mason-Dixon (Kirk +2)
2. (tie) Market Shares Corp. (Kirk +3)
Suffolk University (Kirk +1)
4. (tie) FOX/Rasmussen (Kirk +4)
Public Policy Polling (Kirk +4)
Rasmussen (Kirk +4)
7. Southern Illinois University. (Tied)
8. YouGov/Polimetrix (Giannoulias +3)

Illinois Governor - Quinn 46%, Brady 46% (Tied - Quinn wins)
1. (tie) Mason-Dixon (Brady +4)
Market Shares Corp. (Brady +4)
3. Public Policy Polling (Brady +5)
4. Suffolk University (Quinn +6)
5. FOX/Rasmussen (Brady +6)
6. YouGov/Polimetrix (Brady +7)
7. (tie) Rasmussen (Brady +8)
Southern Illinois University (Brady +8)

Indiana Senate - Coats 57%, Ellsworth 38% (Coats +19)
1. (tie) EPIC/MRI (Coats +18)
Rasmussen (Coats +18)
3. SurveyUSA (Coats +22)

Iowa Senate - Grassley 65%, Conlin 33% (Grassley +32)
1. Selzer & Co. (Grassley +31)
2. Rasmussen (Grassley +18)

Iowa Governor - Branstad 53%, Culver 43% (Branstad +10)
1. Selzer & Co. (Branstad +12)
2. Rasmussen (Branstad +18)

Kansas Senate - Moran 70%, Johnston 26% (Moran +44)
1. SurveyUSA (Moran +40)
(other last poll - 8/4) Rasmussen (Moran +33)

Kansas Governor - Brownback 63%, Holland 32% (Brownback +31)
1. SurveyUSA (Brownback +27)
(other last poll - 8/4) Rasmussen (Brownback +23)

Kentucky Senate - Paul 56%, Conway 44% (Paul +12)
1. Rasmussen (Paul +12)
2. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Paul +15)
SurveyUSA (Paul +9)
4. YouGov/Politmetrix (Paul +8)
5. (tie) Braun Research (Paul +7)
CNN/Time (Paul +7)
FOX/Rasmussen (Paul +7)
8. Mason-Dixon (Paul +5)

Louisiana Senate - Vitter 57%, Melancon 38% (Vitter +19)
1. Magellan Strategies (Vitter +17)
2. Clarus Research Group (Vitter +12)
« Last Edit: November 09, 2010, 12:48:20 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: November 07, 2010, 10:18:17 am »
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Maine Governor - LePage 38%, Cutler 37%, Mitchell 19% (LePage +1)
1. Pan Atlantic SMS Group (LePage +6 over Cutler)
2. Maine People's Resource Center (LePage +10 over Cutler)
3. Public Policy Polling (LePage +12 over Cutler)
4. Rasmussen (LePage +14 over Cutler)
5. (tie) Critical Insights (LePage +19 over Cutler)
Maine Center for Public Opinion (LePage +19 over Cutler)

Maryland Senate - Mikulski 62%, Wargotz 36% (Mikulski +26)
1. Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks (Mikulski +27)
2. Rasmussen (Mikulski +18)
3. Gonzales Research (Mikulski +17)
4. Washington Post (Mikulski +37)

Maryland Governor - O'Malley 56%, Ehrlich 42% (O'Malley +14)
1. (tie) Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks (O'Malley +14)
Washington Post (O'Malley +14)
3. Rasmussen (O'Malley +10)
4. Gonzales Research (O'Malley +5)

Massachusetts Governor - Patrick 49%, Baker 42%, Cahill 8% (Patrick +7)
1. Suffolk University (Patrick +7)
2. Western New England College (Patrick +5)
3. University of New Hampshire (Patrick +4)
4. Rasmussen (Patrick +2)

Michigan Governor - Snyder 58%, Bernero 40% (Snyder +18)
1. (tie) EPIC/MRI (Snyder +18)
Glengariff Group (Snyder +18)
3. (tie) Mitchell Research (Snyder +20)
Rasmussen (Snyder +20)
5. Rossman Group/Team TelCom (Snyder +14)
6. Baydoun/Foster (Snyder +13)

Minnesota Governor - Dayton 44%, Emmer 43%, Horner 12% (Dayton +1)
1. SurveyUSA (Dayton +1)
2. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Dayton +1)
Rasmussen (Dayton +3)
4. StarTribune/PSRA (Dayton +7)
5. St. Cloud State University (Dayton +10)
6. Humphrey Institute (Dayton +12)

Missouri Senate - Blunt 54%, Carnahan 41% (Blunt +13)
1. (tie) CNN/Time (Blunt +13)
Missouri State University (Blunt +13)
3. YouGov/Polimetrix (Blunt +12)
4. (tie) Mason/Dixon (Blunt +9)
Rasmussen (Blunt +9)
5. FOX/Rasmussen (Blunt +7)

Nebraska Governor - Heineman 74%, Meister 26% (Heineman +48)
Rasmussen (Heineman +42)

Nevada Senate - Reid 50%, Angle 45% (Reid +5)
1. Public Opinion Strategies (Reid +5)
2. Suffolk  University (Reid +3)
3. Public Policy Polling (Angle +1)
4. YouGov/Polimetrix (Angle +2)
5. FOX/Rasmussen (Angle +3)
6. (tie) CNN/Time (Angle +4)
Mason-Dixon (Angle +4)
Rasmussen (Angle +4)
9. Magellan Strategies (Angle +5)

Nevada Governor - Sandoval 53%, Reid 41% (Sandoval +12)
1. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Sandoval +11)
Suffolk University (Sandoval +11)
3. (tie) Mason-Dixon (Sandoval +16)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Sandoval +16)
5. (tie) Magellan Strategies (Sandoval +18)
Public Opinion Strategies (Sandoval +6)
6. Rasmussen (Sandoval +23)
7. CNN/Time (Sandoval +24)

New Hampshire Senate - Ayotte 60%, Hodes 37% (Ayotte +23)
1. University of New Hampshire (Ayotte +18)
2. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Ayotte +15)
Rasmussen (Ayotte +15)
4. ARG (Ayotte +5)

New Hampshire Governor - Lynch 53%, Stephen 45% (Lynch +8)
1. University of New Hampshire (Lynch +8)
2. Public Policy Polling (Lynch +9)
3. (tie) ARG (Lynch +10)
Rasmussen (Lynch +6)

New Mexico Governor - Martinez 54%, Denish 46% (Martinez +8)
1. Public Policy Polling (Martinez +8)
2. Rasmussen (Martinez +10)
Research & Polling, Inc./Albuquerque Journal (Martinez +10)
4. SurveyUSA (Martinez +12)

New York Senate (Schumer) - Schumer 65%, Townsend 33% (Schumer +32)
1. (tie) Quinnipiac University (Schumer +32)
Siena University (Schumer +32)
3. SurveyUSA (Schumer +30)
4. (tie) Marist College (Schumer +28)
Rasmussen (Schumer +28)
6. (tie) Angus Reid (Schumer +26)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Schumer +26)
8. New York Times (Schumer +40)
9. Public Policy Polling (Schumer +22)
10. CNN/Time (Schumer +16)

New York Senate (Gillibrand) - Gillibrand 62%, DioGuardi 36% (Gillibrand +26)
1. New York Times (Gillibrand +25)
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (Gillibrand +24)
3. Quinnipiac University (Gillibrand +23)
4. (tie) Angus Reid (Gillibrand +21)
Rasmussen (Gillibrand +21)
6. (tie) Siena University (Gillibrand +20)
SurveyUSA (Gillibrand +20)
8. Marist College (Gillibrand +18)
9. CNN/Time (Gillibrand +14)
10. Public Policy Polling (Gillibrand +10)

New York Governor - Cuomo 61%, Paladino 34% (Cuomo +27)
1. YouGov/Polimetrix (Cuomo +27)
2. Siena (Cuomo +25)
3. Marist (Cuomo +23)
4. SurveyUSA (Cuomo +22)
5. Quinnipiac (Cuomo +20)
6. New York Times (Cuomo +35)
7. Angus Reid (Cuomo +17)
8. Public Policy Polling (Cuomo +15)
9. (tie) CNN/Time (Cuomo +14)
Rasmussen (Cuomo +14)

North Carolina Senate - Burr 55%, Marshall 43%
1. Public Policy Polling (Burr +12)
2. (tie) Civitas Institute/Tel Opinion Research (Burr +10)
High Point University (Burr +14)
Rasmussen (Burr +14)
5. SurveyUSA (Burr +15)

North Dakota Senate - Hoeven 76%, Potter 22% (Hoeven +54)
Rasmussen (Hoeven +47)

North Dakota House - Berg 55%, Pomeroy 45%
1. Rasmussen (Berg +10)
2. Penn Schoen Berland/The Hill (Pomeroy +1)

Ohio Senate - Portman 57%, Fisher 39% (Portman +18)
1. Public Policy Polling (Portman +18)
2. (tie) Angus Reid (Portman +17)
FOX/Rasmussen (Portman +17)
Quinnipiac University (Portman +19)
5. Columbus Dispatch (Portman +16)
6. (tie) CNN/Time (Portman +15)
SurveyUSA (Portman +15)
University of Cincinnati (Portman +21)
9. (tie) Ipsos (Portman +13)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Portman +13)
11. Rasmussen (Portman +24)
12. (tie) New York Times (Portman +11)
Wilson Research Strategies (Portman +11)
14. Suffolk University (Portman +10)

Ohio Governor - Kasich 49%, Strickland 47% (Kasich +2)
1. Columbus Dispatch (Kasich +2)
2. (tie) Angus Reid (Kasich +3)
Ipsos (Kasich +1)
New York Times (Kasich +1)
Public Policy Polling (Kasich +1)
Quinnipiac University (Kasich +1)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Kasich +3)
8. (tie) FOX/Rasmussen (Kasich +4)
Rasmussen (Kasich +4)
Suffolk University (Kasich +4)
11. University of Cincinnati (Kasich +4)
12. SurveyUSA (Kasich +5)
13. CNN/Time (Strickland +1)

Oklahoma Senate - Coburn 71%, Rogers 26% (Coburn +45)
1. Rasmussen (Coburn +42)
2. SoonerPoll.com/Tulsa World (Coburn +40)

Oklahoma Governor - Fallin 60%, Askins 40% (Fallin +20)
1. SoonerPoll.com/Tulsa World (Fallin +18)
2. Rasmussen (Fallin +26)

Oregon Senate - Wyden 57%, Huffman 40% (Wyden +17)
1. Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos (Wyden +16)
2. Rasmussen (Wyden +11)
3. SurveyUSA (Wyden +25)

Oregon Governor - Kitzhaber 49%, Dudley 48% (Kitzhaber +1)
1. (tie) Elway Poll (Kitzhaber +1)
Public Policy Polling/Daily Kos (Kitzhaber +1)
3. (tie) Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall/Portland Tribune (Dudley +3)
Rasmussen (Dudley +3)
5. SurveyUSA (Kitzhaber +7)

Pennsylvania Senate - Toomey 51%, Sestak 49% (Toomey +2)
1. Susquehanna (Toomey +2)
2. (tie) CNN/Time (Toomey +4)
Muhlenberg College (Toomey +4)
Rasmussen (Toomey +4)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Toomey +4)
6. Ipsos (Tied)
7. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Toomey +5)
Quinnipiac University (Toomey +5)
Suffolk University (Toomey +5)
10. Marist College (Toomey +7)
11. (tie) Franklin and Marshall College (Toomey +8)
Magellan Strategies (Toomey +8)

Pennsylvania Governor - Corbett 55%, Onorato 45% (Corbett +10)
1. (tie) Magellan Strategies (Corbett +10)
Quinnipiac University (Corbett +10)
3. (tie) Rasmussen (Corbett +9)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Corbett +11)
5. (tie) CNN/Time (Corbett +7)
Marist College (Corbett +7)
Muhlenberg College (Corbett +7)
Public Policy Polling (Corbett +7)
Suffolk University (Corbett +7)
10. Ipsos (Corbett +6)
11. Franklin and Marshall College (Corbett +16)
12. Susquehanna (Corbett +1)

Rhode Island Governor - Chafee 36%, Robitaille 34%, Caprio 23% (Chafee +2)
1. Quest Research (Chafee +7 over Robitaille)
2. Fleming & Associates (Chafee +7 over Robitaille)
3. Rasmussen (Chafee +10 over Robitaille)
4. Brown University (Caprio +7 over Chafee)

South Carolina Senate - DeMint 63%, Greene 28%, Clements 9% (DeMint +35)
1. (tie) Rasmussen (DeMint +37)
Crantford & Associates (DeMint +33)
3. Winthrop University (DeMint +46)

South Carolina Governor - Haley 51%, Sheheen 47% (Haley +4)
1. Hamilton Campaigns (Haley +5)
2. Crantford & Associates (Haley +2)
3. (tie) Rasmussen (Haley +9)
Winthrop University (Haley +9)
5. Insider Advantage (Haley +14)

South Dakota Governor - Daugaard 62%, Heidepriem 38% (Daugaard +24)
Rasmussen (Daugaard +19)

South Dakota Senate - Thune 100%
None

South Dakota House - Noem 48%, Herseth-Sandlin 46% (Noem +2)
1. Mason-Dixon (Noem +2)
2. Rasmussen (Noem +5)
3. Nielson Brothers (Herseth-Sandlin +2)
4. Penn, Schoen Berland/The Hill (Herseth-Sandlin +3)

Tennessee Governor - Haslam 65%, McWherter 33% (Haslam +32)
1. Crawford, Johnson & Northcott, Inc. (Haslam +29)
2. Rasmussen (Haslam +28)

Texas Governor - Perry 55%, White 42% (Perry +13)
1. (tie) Public Strategies (Perry +14)
Blum & Weprin (Perry +12)
3. YouGov/University of Texas (Perry +10)
4. Public Policy Polling (Perry +9)
5. Rasmussen (Perry +8)
6. Dallas Morning News (Perry +7)
« Last Edit: November 09, 2010, 12:58:22 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
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« Reply #3 on: November 07, 2010, 10:18:49 am »
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Utah Senate - Lee 61%, Granato 33% (Lee +28)
1. Dan Jones & Associates (Lee +27)
2. UtahPolicy/Westerd Wats (Lee +32)
3. Rasmussen (Lee +33)
4. Mason-Dixon (Lee +16)

Utah Governor - Herbert 64%, Corroon 32% (Herbert +32)
1. UtahPolicy/Western Wats (Herbert +31)
2. Dan Jones & Associates (Herbert +34)
3. (tie) Mason-Dixon (Herbert +27)
Rasmussen (Herbert +37)

Vermont Senate - Leahy 64%, Britton 31% (Leahy +33)
Mason-Dixon (Leahy +35)

Vermont Governor - Shumlin 50%, Dubie 48% (Shumlin +2)
1. Rasmussen (Shumlin +5)
2. Mason-Dixon (Dubie +1)

Vermont House - Welch 64%, Beaudry 32% (Welch +32)
Mason-Dixon (Welch +36)

Washington Senate - Murray 51%, Rossi 49% (Murray +2)
1. FOX/Rasmussen (Murray +2)
2. (tie) Marist College (Murray +1)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Murray +3)
4. SurveyUSA (Tied)
5. Rasmussen (Rossi +1)
6. University of Washington (Murray +6)
7. Public Policy Polling (Rossi +2)
8. CNN/Time (Murray +8)
9. Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (Rossi +6)
10. Elway Poll (Murray +15)

West Virginia Senate - Manchin 54%, Raese 43% (Manchin +11)
1. Marshall University (Manchin +10)
2. Public Policy Polling (Manchin +5)
3. Rasmussen (Manchin +4)
4. CNN/Time (Tied)
5. FOX/Rasmussen (Raese +2)

Wisconsin Senate - Johnson 52%, Feingold 47% (Johnson +5)
1. (tie) YouGov/Polimetrix (Johnson +6)
Voter/Consumer Research/We the People (Johnson +4)
3. (tie) Ipsos (Johnson +7)
Marist College (Johnson +7)
Rasmussen (Johnson +7)
6. (tie) CNN/Time (Johnson +8)
FOX/Rasmussen (Johnson +8)
St. Norbert College (Johnson +2)
9. Public Policy Polling (Johnson +9)

Wisconsin Governor - Walker 52%, Barrett 47% (Walker +5)
1. FOX/Rasmussen (Walker +4)
2. Marist College (Walker +7)
3. CNN/Time (Walker +8)
4. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Walker +9)
St. Norbert (Walker +9)
6. (tie) Ipsos (Walker +10)
Rasmussen (Walker +10)
YouGov/Polimetrix (Walker +10)

Wyoming Governor - Mead 72%, Petersen 25% (Mead +47)
Rasmussen (Mead +36)

Notes
*Alabama Governor - The last Rasmussen on September 21 had Bentley +20 (55-35).
*Alaska Senate - PPP polled it once for Daily Kos on 10/9-10/10, giving us Young (R) 58, Crawford (D) 36, which was a mile off (actual - Young 69, Crawford 31).
*Arkansas Senate -  I have *always* used the "very likely" numbers on the University of Arkansas poll - it should have been entered accordingly.
*California/Oregon Senate - For SUSA in California, those who look at the cell phone issue should note that the landline only sample was the exact same as the topline result; the wide variations came with landline+cellphone holders (way too GOP) and cell phone only holders (way too Dem).  SUSA in Oregon was not too great with landline only and completely blew up with the inclusion of the cell phone.
*Louisiana Senate - The last Rasmussen on August 30 had Vitter +21 (54-33).  The last PPP on August 21-22 had Vitter +10 (51-41).
*Maine Governor - I don't really fault the pollsters much here - it appears like Mitchell's support just collapsed in the end and went to the Indy Cutler, something which can only happen in Maine, of course.
*Michigan Governor - The last PPP on September 18-19 had Snyder +21 (52-31).
*Missouri Senate - The last PPP (Daily Kos, not the Carnahan internal) on August 14-16 had Blunt +7 (45-38).
*Vermont Senate - The last Rasmussen on September 13 had Leahy +30 (62-32).
*Vermont House - The last Rasmussen on September 13 had Welch +34 (64-30).
« Last Edit: November 09, 2010, 01:01:52 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2010, 10:19:06 am »
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« Reply #5 on: November 07, 2010, 10:19:19 am »
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« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2010, 10:19:31 am »
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Capitan Zapp Brannigan
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« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2010, 09:55:35 am »
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Thanks for doing this Sam, it's pretty interesting to see it all layed out like this.

Also, interesting that PPP got the margin right in North Carolina when everybody(including myself) thought that NC would be the one state they were having a big bias towards the Dems in.
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« Reply #8 on: November 09, 2010, 12:19:15 pm »
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Not sure if predicting the final margin is the best way to rank polls - for example, that Hays Research poll in AK had McAdams in second by a substantial margin, IIRC.

It would probably be better to compare them based on the average differential from the final performance of each candidate than the final margin.

For example, if the final margin were:

R: 53
D: 46

(R+7)

And you had one poll:

R: 48
D: 42

(R+6)

And another:

R: 54
D: 43

(R+11)

The second poll is further off from the final margin, but:

First poll:

|53-48| = 5
|46-42| = 4

(5+4)/2 = avg. candidate error of 4.5

Second poll:

|53-54| = 1
|46-43| = 3

(1+3)/2 = avg. candidate error of 2

While the first poll predicted the margin better (and thus has a greater level of accuracy), the second poll still has a greater level of precision, more closely tracking the actual results of the candidates.  I personally think precision is more important than accuracy when it comes to polling, although some combination of the two would also be a good measure.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: November 09, 2010, 01:03:45 pm »
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I believe very much in margin being the most accurate measure because some legitimate pollsters don't push undecideds very hard.

If you want to do it based on differential, all the polls are out there.

I may also test Rasmussen with a last three polls average to see the difference from the final.

The placeholders are for ranking pollsters nationwide when I get around to it.
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« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2010, 08:32:48 am »
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Thank you for doing this! It's a lot of work.
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