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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  International Elections (Moderator: Sibboleth)
| | |-+  2011 State Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2011 State Elections in Germany  (Read 73685 times)
Sibboleth
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« Reply #1225 on: September 18, 2011, 04:15:54 pm »

SPD gain Lichtenberg 1. lol.

Huh, why is the Left leading in Mitte 3 all of the sudden? Doesn't make any sense. Is it possible that someone mistakingly entered the data for Mitte 2 into Mitte 3?

Or they SPD and Left confused?
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1226 on: September 18, 2011, 04:16:42 pm »
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SPD gain Lichtenberg 1. lol.

Huh, why is the Left leading in Mitte 3 all of the sudden? Doesn't make any sense. Is it possible that someone mistakingly entered the data for Mitte 2 into Mitte 3?

Or they SPD and Left confused?
No, pretty sure it's teh former. It's also in the tables, and the SPD is only just behind though in third place.
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« Reply #1227 on: September 18, 2011, 04:17:23 pm »
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The Left wouldn't win 26.5% in Mitte 3 either (which is the current result for SPD there). It's a West Berlin district where the Left had 5% last time.
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1228 on: September 18, 2011, 04:25:07 pm »
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It seems the CDU "wins" West Berlin. Sad
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1229 on: September 18, 2011, 04:26:54 pm »
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Spandau Borough Assembly
CDU 23, SPD 21, Greens 6, Pirates 3, Left 1
Administration
CDU 3, SPD 2

C-W
CDU 18, SPD 17, Greens 14, Pirates 4, Left 2
Administration
CDU 2, SPD 2, Greens 1
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #1230 on: September 18, 2011, 04:29:13 pm »

It seems the CDU "wins" West Berlin. Sad

So there is a downside to FDP collapse.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #1231 on: September 18, 2011, 04:33:59 pm »

Anyways, Mitte 2 and Mitte 3 are all declared and sorted out now.
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« Reply #1232 on: September 18, 2011, 05:34:09 pm »
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Any word on if we are looking at Red-Green or Red-Black?
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« Reply #1233 on: September 18, 2011, 05:36:25 pm »
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Any word on if we are looking at Red-Green or Red-Black?


No official word, of course. The SPD has basically said they think the Greens have more policies in common with them. I've heard one or two sceptical voices about only having a one seat majority.....but I tend to think it'll be red-green.

Wowereit isn't going to govern with the CDU.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #1234 on: September 18, 2011, 06:53:15 pm »

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« Reply #1235 on: September 18, 2011, 07:14:47 pm »
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Dumb-dumb question.

"Direct seats" = First past the post seats, right?
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« Reply #1236 on: September 18, 2011, 07:16:13 pm »

Dumb-dumb question.

"Direct seats" = First past the post seats, right?

Yep
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« Reply #1237 on: September 19, 2011, 12:20:15 am »
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So the direct seats went...

SPD 34 (-5)
CDU 23 (+6)
Greens 11 (+5)
Left 7 (-6)

SPD ---> CDU: Steglitz-Zehlendorf 1 and 2, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf 5 and 7, Reinickendorf 1, Spandau 4
SPD ---> Greens: Mitte 1, Tempelhof-Schöneberg 1, Neukölln 1 and 2, Kreuzberg-Friedrichshain 5
Left ---> SPD: Kreuzberg-Friedrichshain 4, Marzahn 6, Lichtenberg 1, 3, 4, 5 (wow...)
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Social score: -0.17



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Franzl
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« Reply #1238 on: September 19, 2011, 02:15:05 am »
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Final list vote:

SPD 28.3
CDU 23.4
Grüne 17.6
Linke 11.7
Piraten 8.9

NPD 2.1
FDP 1.8
Tierschutzpartei 1.5
Die PARTEI 0.9

And a couple of parties with even less.....not worth listing.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1239 on: September 19, 2011, 02:22:18 am »
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Why exactly is the Left so strong in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 4 and in Mitte 2 ?

And the Greens so weak ? All the surrounding districts were won by the Greens ...
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« Reply #1240 on: September 19, 2011, 02:26:55 am »
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Final list vote:

SPD 28.3
CDU 23.4
Grüne 17.6
Linke 11.7
Piraten 8.9

NPD 2.1
FDP 1.8
Tierschutzpartei 1.5
Die PARTEI 0.9

And a couple of parties with even less.....not worth listing.

And the final seat distribution:

SPD 48
CDU 39
Grüne 30
Linke 20
Piraten 15

152 seats in total. 77 necessary for a majority.
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« Reply #1241 on: September 19, 2011, 02:36:20 am »
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Why exactly is the Left so strong in Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg 4 and in Mitte 2 ?

And the Greens so weak ? All the surrounding districts were won by the Greens ...

Mitte 2 is the part of Mitte which belonged to East Berlin. The other destricts are located in West Berlin. In fact, as a a former core district of East Berlin it still contains a lot of retired SED officials from before 1990. I suppose the same could be said about Frieke 4?
« Last Edit: September 19, 2011, 02:38:20 am by Stick it to the Man »Logged
Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1242 on: September 19, 2011, 03:13:13 am »
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Mitte 2 is the part of Mitte which belonged to East Berlin. The other destricts are located in West Berlin. In fact, as a a former core district of East Berlin it still contains a lot of retired SED officials from before 1990. I suppose the same could be said about Frieke 4?
Yeah. Stalinallee and such. Though most of Mitte 1 is in East Berlin, of course.
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1243 on: September 19, 2011, 03:28:59 am »
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Turnout was 60.2%

West
turnout 61.9
CDU 29.5, SPD 28.0, Greens 20.4, Pirates 8.1, Left 4.3, FDP 2.3
East
turnout 57.8
SPD 28.8, Left 22.6, CDU 14.2, Greens 13.5, Pirates 10.1, FDP 1.2

CDU actually gained more in the east (+2.Cool than the west. Left gained 0.1 in the west. Though the SPD lost in both parts of the city, they lost more in the west (thanks to the Left-to-SPD swing) and thus are now stronger in the East.
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1244 on: September 19, 2011, 03:32:24 am »
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Quote
Some of Berlin's new Pirate MdA's.

They even have a woman. Emphasis on "a", as in singular. Wink
More like a girl.



She's 19.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2011, 03:35:43 am by Lewis Honeyboy Trondheim »Logged

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1245 on: September 19, 2011, 03:38:38 am »
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When we look at the Exit Polls, I think the Linke is slowly disappearing.

In the East, only 11% of 18-30 year olds have vote for the Linke and 12% of 30-44 year olds.

On the other hand, 26% of 45-59 year olds in the East did so and 35% of those aged 60+

The more old people die in East Berlin, the more the Left will decay ...
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1246 on: September 19, 2011, 03:40:04 am »
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Average year of birth, by parliamentary party
Left 1961
CDU 1965
SPD 1965
Greens 1966
Pirates 1977
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« Reply #1247 on: September 19, 2011, 03:44:49 am »
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Mitte 2 is the part of Mitte which belonged to East Berlin. The other destricts are located in West Berlin. In fact, as a a former core district of East Berlin it still contains a lot of retired SED officials from before 1990. I suppose the same could be said about Frieke 4?
Yeah. Stalinallee and such. Though most of Mitte 1 is in East Berlin, of course.

Right. Even with its eastern parts, Mitte 1 is a less "typical" East Berlin district though (Friedrichstadtpalast instead of major Plattenbauten Wink ).
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Vasall des Midas
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« Reply #1248 on: September 19, 2011, 03:46:16 am »
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Heh. Kreuzberg-Friedrichshain borough assembly.

Greens 35.5 (+2.5)
SPD 20.8 (-4.8)
Pirates 14.3 (+14.3)
Left 12.5 (-4.0)
CDU 7.9 (-0.9)
Partei 2.8 (+1.3)
...
FDP 0.9 (-2.9)

D'Hondt and a 3% threshold giving
Greens 22
SPD 13
Pirates 8
Left 7
CDU 4

and for the five-member administration, chosen by D'Hondt from the assembly (the job distribution is decided by the assembly, though)
Greens 3, SPD 1, Pirates 1. Wheee.
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« Reply #1249 on: September 19, 2011, 03:48:02 am »
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The Pirates are getting a Stadtrat? God help us all!
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