2011 State Elections in Germany

[Vasall des Midas]

I wonder how much it will be set at, BTW. In France, the SMIC is at 9€ per hour.

The SPD currently supports 8.50 EUR, I doubt it will be higher than that.

I somehow imagined that it would be lower than in France. That said, I don't know what is the difference in prices between France and Germany. I guess they are lower in Germany, right ?

Higher on some things, very much identical on others (most), was ever my impression.

[Vasall des Midas]

Election will be in march 2012, but Petra Roth proves her evil genius by retiring a year early, and settling the dirty fight for the succession as CDU candidate behind closed doors, as a package deal. Boris Rhein will run.
Meanwhile, the SPD has two candidates, neither all that great, and had intended to let the members vote in February. Now they'll vote in December instead - the membership vote stays.
And the Greens don't have a candidate at all since Lutz Sikorski's death in january. The woman most tipped as the most likely candidate, Manuela Rottmann, had ruled herself out just days ago.

I used to be quite optimistic about this election. Right now I have a sinking feeling... and I can't stand Rhein's guts twenty meters against the wind.

[Senator MaxQue]

For which government?

[I left.]

For which government?

Mayor of Frankfurt/Main

[Vasall des Midas]

For which government?

That is for us to know and for you to find out. size=1pt]What Franzl said.[/size]

[Old Europe]

The German 5% threshold for European Parliament elections was ruled unconstitutional today.

Reason given: Unlike the Bundestag, you don't need stable majorities in the European Parliament, so it doesn't really matter whether five or ten parties win seats there.

Good news for the NPD, Pirates, Free Voters, Animal Protection Party, Family Party, and possibly a few others, because we could see them in Strasbourg from 2014 onwards.

[Vasall des Midas]

Heh.

I figured out years ago that this would logically follow from court decisions on thresholds in other races, but I never knew there was a lawsuit on the issue.

[Ethelberth]

Hurrah, it means that Germans can contribute as seeds for many new parliamentary groups. FDP
will be rescued and ÖDP will be in. There is also possible to make coalition of regional parties like Spain.  On the other hand, They can do as in UK or FR and split country to smaller constituencies which would be easy.

[Old Europe]

Germany's 2009 European Parliament election result without 5% threshold, according to election.de:

CDU/CSU 39 seats (-3 compared to actual result)
SPD 21 (-2)
Greens 12 (-2)
FDP 11 (-1)
Left 8 (+-0)
Free Voters 2 (+2)
The Republicans 1 (+1)
Animal Protection Party 1 (+1)
Family Party 1 (+1)
Pirate Party 1 (+1)
Pensioners' Party 1 (+1)
Ecological Democratic Party 1 (+1)

[I left.]

New Forsa federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 9%
Piraten: 9%
FDP: 2%

Government: 34%, Opposition: 59% (counting only parties that would be represented in parliament)

CDU/FDP: 36%, SPD/Green: 41%

Obviously insufficient for both CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens.

[The Mikado]

New Forsa federal poll:

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 9%
Piraten: 9%
FDP: 2%

Government: 34%, Opposition: 59% (counting only parties that would be represented in parliament)

CDU/FDP: 36%, SPD/Green: 41%

Obviously insufficient for both CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens.

I never thought I'd see the day when there was a chance that the Pirates would be in the Bundestag while the FDP wasn't.

[Senator MaxQue]

2% for the FDP?!! I thought than 3-4% were their base.
Where their voters went?

[republicanism]

Keep in mind that this is Forsa, the institute well known for their news-making poll results.

An other institute, Allensbach, also had a new poll yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 32
SPD: 30
Greens: 17
FDP: 4,5
Left: 8
Pirates: 4,5

---

So choose your reality ;-)

[DL]

Its really astonishing how support for the FDP (aka "the party of doctors and dentists") has totally collapsed - not that I'm shedding tears since they would be by far my least favourite party in Germany.

But I don't understand why they are so unpopular. I was under the impression that Merkel was wayyy more "centrist" than any previous CDU leader and had opened up a large vacuum on the right. I would have thought that if anything this would be the perfect time for the FDP to increase support since they are essentially the only rightwing party in Germany! - I suppose the only explanation might be that by being in coalition with the CDU they have lost any identity of their own and have almost nothing to show the people who voted for them...kind of like the Li bDems in the UK who also face obliteration.

[Tender Branson]

2 polls from Infratest dimap today:

Baden-Württemberg

37%  [-2] CDU
29% [+5] Greens
22%  [-1] SPD
  4% [+2] Pirates
  3%  [-2] FDP
  2%  [-1] Left
  3%  [-1] Others

51-37 majority for the Green-SPD coalition.

Governor Winfried Kretschmann (Greens) currently has a 58-28 approval rating.

In 10 days there will be a referendum on Stuttgart 21.

Currently 55% are in favor of the new train station, while 45% are opposed.

http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/bw/-/id=1622/nid=1622/did=8888524/316i8y/index.html

Saarland

35% [+11] SPD
32%    [-3] CDU 
12%    [-9] Left
  8%   [+2] Greens 
  5%    [-4] FDP
  4%   [+4] Pirates
  4%    [-1] Others

In Saarland, there's currently a CDU-FDP-Green coalition.

According to the poll, this so called Jamaica-coalition currently has only 45% support, while the SPD-Left opposition would have 47% and the Pirates are knocking at the 5% treshold.

http://www.sr-online.de/nachrichten/1209

[Old Europe]

But I don't understand why they are so unpopular. I was under the impression that Merkel was wayyy more "centrist" than any previous CDU leader and had opened up a large vacuum on the right. I would have thought that if anything this would be the perfect time for the FDP to increase support since they are essentially the only rightwing party in Germany! - I suppose the only explanation might be that by being in coalition with the CDU they have lost any identity of their own and have almost nothing to show the people who voted for them...kind of like the Li bDems in the UK who also face obliteration.

^^ Yeah, that's it.

And the truth is that most of the younger FDP politicians simply suck at governing. Problem is that most leadership positions in the party are currently filled by those younger politicians.

Ah well, and there was this Mövenpick scandal earlier during this administration which reinforced the FDP's image that the party is for hire for any company who can afford to buy legislation from the FDP. They never really recovered from that, I suppose.

In short, the FDP's image is that they're incompetent, corrupt and that they're not keeping their campaign promises. This doesn't leave many redeeming qualities.

[DL]

Its funny that a party (the FDP) that is supposed to be the party of rich, highly-educated professionals with very high opinions of themselves - turn out to be so incompetent at actually running anything.

There must be a moral to that story somewhere!

[Tender Branson]

In 10 days there will be a referendum on Stuttgart 21.

Currently 55% are in favor of the new train station, while 45% are opposed.

BTW: Support is up 2% and opposition is up 13% compared with the August poll.

Even though the left-wing parties currently have a 53-40 lead in the state (57-40 if you factor in the Pirates), it will still be hard for the opposing side to close the gap in the last 9 days. Probably a lot of SPD-voters will vote for the new station, maybe they are even split 50-50 - while most Green voters will vote against it.

Anyway, at least 1/3 of all people have to vote so that the result is valid.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

In 10 days there will be a referendum on Stuttgart 21.

Currently 55% are in favor of the new train station, while 45% are opposed.

BTW: Support is up 2% and opposition is up 13% compared with the August poll.

Even though the left-wing parties currently have a 53-40 lead in the state (57-40 if you factor in the Pirates), it will still be hard for the opposing side to close the gap in the last 9 days. Probably a lot of SPD-voters will vote for the new station, maybe they are even split 50-50 - while most Green voters will vote against it.

Anyway, at least 1/3 of all people have to vote so that the result is valid.

If the quorum is not met, what happens ? Will they build it or not ?

Though I guess it will be, if the issue is as divisive as it seems.

[Tender Branson]

In 10 days there will be a referendum on Stuttgart 21.

Currently 55% are in favor of the new train station, while 45% are opposed.

BTW: Support is up 2% and opposition is up 13% compared with the August poll.

Even though the left-wing parties currently have a 53-40 lead in the state (57-40 if you factor in the Pirates), it will still be hard for the opposing side to close the gap in the last 9 days. Probably a lot of SPD-voters will vote for the new station, maybe they are even split 50-50 - while most Green voters will vote against it.

Anyway, at least 1/3 of all people have to vote so that the result is valid.

If the quorum is not met, what happens ? Will they build it or not ?

Though I guess it will be, if the issue is as divisive as it seems.

After reading a bit, it is slightly different actually:

1/3 of all eligible voters have to vote "Yes", so that the train station is not built.

Not 50%+ of Yes votes of those who voted !!!

The train station is built though, if 50%+ of those who voted went for "No" ...

Worüber wird abgestimmt ?

Abgestimmt wird über die Gesetzesvorlage des Stuttgart 21-Kündigungsgesetzes. Konkret geht es um die Frage, ob das Land Baden-Württemberg aus der Finanzierung des Projektes aussteigt. Die genaue Fragestellung lautet: "Stimmen Sie der Gesetzesvorlage `Gesetz über die Ausübung von Kündigungsrechten bei den vertraglichen Vereinbarungen für das Bahnprojekt Stuttgart 21 (S 21 - Kündigungsgesetz)´ zu?".

Die Bürger können mit "Ja" stimmen - und damit für einen Ausstieg des Landes aus der Finanzierung des Projektes.

Mit "Nein" sprechen sie sich gegen das Kündigungsgesetz und damit für den Weiterbau des Bahnprojektes mit Landesgeldern aus. Weitere Antwortmöglichkeiten gibt es nicht.

Welche Ergebnisse der Volksabstimmung sind möglich ?

Die Volksabstimmung könnte zur Folge haben, dass die Finanzierungsvereinbarung des Landes zu Stuttgart 21 gekündigt wird. Dafür müsste mindestens ein Drittel aller Stimmberechtigten entsprechend mit "Ja" votieren - das wären etwa 2,5 Millionen Baden-Württemberger. Zum Vergleich: Bei der Landtagswahl im März 2011 kamen die Stuttgart-21-kritischen Grünen auf insgesamt 1,2 Millionen Stimmen.

Das Kündigungsgesetz ist hingegen abgelehnt, wenn die Mehrheit der Abstimmenden bei "Nein" ihr Kreuzchen macht. Außerdem ist das S 21-Kündigungsgesetz nicht angenommen, wenn zwar die Mehrheit der Abstimmenden mit "Ja" stimmt, diese Mehrheit jedoch aus weniger als einem Drittel aller Stimmberechtigten besteht.


http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/bw/-/id=1622/nid=1622/did=8758648/q80igi/index.html

Why is this referendum so biased against the "Yes" side ?

This would mean that at least 60% have to turn out and out of these 55% have to vote "Yes" ...

[Tender Branson]

That's weird:

The better the turnout, the better the chances for the Yes side, the worse the turnout the worse it is for the Yes side.

Considering a 50% turnout, Yes would need 66% to win.

60% turnout, Yes needs 55% to win.

During the last state elections, turnout was 66.3%

That would mean 5.039.000 voters. Yes would need about 50% to win.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I think it's a fair system. The 33% requirement isn't hard to meet if the topic interests enough people, and it ensures the decision is taken only if a reasonable share of the population supports it. The italian system is far worse, as it require a turnout rate above 50% counting both yes and no votes, which encourage opponents to just abstain to ensure the proposal fails.

[Tender Branson]

I think it's a fair system. The 33% requirement isn't hard to meet if the topic interests enough people, and it ensures the decision is taken only if a reasonable share of the population supports it. The italian system is far worse, as it require a turnout rate above 50% counting both yes and no votes, which encourage opponents to just abstain to ensure the proposal fails.

Yeah, you are right.

But still, 65% turnout would be about what is needed for this thing to pass (well, fail actually).

And I doubt if a simple referendum can do that if the state election only had 66% turnout.

[Tender Branson]

I think it would be better to have a 50% turnout requirement in this case and a binding "Yes/No vote out of those who voted.

[Formerly Californian Tony]

I think it's a fair system. The 33% requirement isn't hard to meet if the topic interests enough people, and it ensures the decision is taken only if a reasonable share of the population supports it. The italian system is far worse, as it require a turnout rate above 50% counting both yes and no votes, which encourage opponents to just abstain to ensure the proposal fails.

Yeah, you are right.

But still, 65% turnout would be about what is needed for this thing to pass (well, fail actually).

And I doubt if a simple referendum can do that if the state election only had 66% turnout.

It all depends on how motivated the "yes" supporters are. I'm sure it's possible to find 33% of registered voters who oppose Stuttgart 21, so all lies on GOTV operations. After all, Italy managed to have 50.86% (!) of its registered voters say no to nuclear energy.