2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

But the experts have told us that Hamburg won't have any impact on the federal trend!! I want my money (= TV fees) back.

[Franzl]

New Emnid poll, showing the SPD gaining and the Greens losing:

35% (+1.2) CDU/CSU
28% (+5.0) SPD
16% (+5.3) Greens
  9%  (-2.9) Left
  6%  (-8.6) FDP
  6%  (-0.0) Others

Compared to several months ago, the government is actually doing rather well.

[Tender Branson]

2 new Emnid/Focus polls out today for the next state elections:

Baden-Württemberg

40%    (-4.2) CDU
23%    (-2.2) SPD
22% (+10.3) Greens
  6%    (-4.7) FDP
  4%   (+0.9) Left
  5%    (-0.1) Others

This is the first time that the SPD polled higher than the Greens since the Stuttgart-21 protests last September/October. It also means a slight CDU-FDP majority (46%) against Red-Green (45%).

Rheinland-Pfalz

38%  (-7.6) SPD
36% (+3.2) CDU
12% (+7.4) Greens
  5%  (-3.0) FDP
  5% (+2.5) Left
  4%  (-2.5) Others

Still a slight majority for SPD-Greens (50%) over CDU-FDP-Left (46%).

[Insula Dei]

So B-W comes down to whether or not the FDP makes it into the Landstag?

[minionofmidas]

So B-W comes down to whether or not the FDP makes it into the Landstag?

And the Left, of course. And whether the polls are accurate.

[Tender Branson]

Just did the Baden-Württemberg Wahl-O-Mat test:

84/102 - Pirate Party
82/102 - Left Party
72/102 - SPD
70/102 - Greens
67/102 - Nazis
57/102 - Party of the Bible-believing Christians (just for fun)
47/102 - FDP
41/102 - CDU

Will do the Rheinland-Pfalz Wahl-O-Mat next.

[Tender Branson]

My Rheinland-Pfalz results are slightly different:

78/100 Left Party
69/100 Greens
66/100 Pirate Party
66/100 Freie Wähler
60/100 SPD
58/100 Nazis
54/100 CDU
43/100 FDP

http://www.wahlomat.de

[minionofmidas]

Just did the Baden-Württemberg Wahl-O-Mat test:

84/102 - Pirate Party
82/102 - Left Party
72/102 - SPD
70/102 - Greens
67/102 - Nazis
57/102 - Party of the Bible-believing Christians (just for fun)
47/102 - FDP
41/102 - CDU

Will do the Rheinland-Pfalz Wahl-O-Mat next.

83/96 Left
76/96 Greens
75/96 Pirates
64/96 SPD
59/96 BIG (why not?)
47/96 NPD
37/96 FDP
36/96 CDU

[minionofmidas]

My Rheinland-Pfalz results are slightly different:

78/100 Left Party
69/100 Greens
66/100 Pirate Party
66/100 Freie Wähler
60/100 SPD
58/100 Nazis
54/100 CDU
43/100 FDP

http://www.wahlomat.de

73/90 Left
69/90 SPD
63/90 Pirates
62/90 Greens
57/90 ddp (who?)
44/90 CDU
44/90 FDP
34/90 NPD

Hmmm...

[Tender Branson]

My Rheinland-Pfalz results are slightly different:

78/100 Left Party
69/100 Greens
66/100 Pirate Party
66/100 Freie Wähler
60/100 SPD
58/100 Nazis
54/100 CDU
43/100 FDP

http://www.wahlomat.de

73/90 Left
69/90 SPD
63/90 Pirates
62/90 Greens
57/90 ddp (who?)
44/90 CDU
44/90 FDP
34/90 NPD

Hmmm...

I wonder what boxes I checked that the Nazis always were higher than CDU or FDP in my results. Could it be that the NPD has some Socialist/Leftist positions on the issues ?

[Hans-im-Glück]

My result for the Wahl-o-mat:

Baden-Württemberg:

81/96 Left
77/96 Pirates
75/96 Greens
75/96 SPD
51/96 PBC
48/96 NPD
42/96 CDU
36/96 FDP

Rheinland-Pfalz:

65/88 Left
64/88 Free Voters
62/88 Greens
57/88 SPD
49/88 Pirates
47/88 CDU
43/88 NPD
40/88 FDP

No surprises. It seems that the Free Voters are in R-P a little bit more left than in Bavaria.

[Tender Branson]

How likely is it in Ba-Wü that many Green voters could instead vote for the SPD, so that the Greens end up with about 15-20% and the SPD at about 30% ?

New Forsa Baden-Württemberg poll out today and my scenario is now much more likely:

39%  [-5.2] CDU
26% [+0.8] SPD
19% [+7.3] Greens
  6%  [-4.7] FDP
  4% [+0.9] Left
  6% [+0.9] Others

Tie between CDU-FDP (45%) and SPD-Greens (45%).

Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Forsa Baden-Württemberg poll out today and my scenario is now much more likely:

39%  [-5.2] CDU
26% [+0.8] SPD
19% [+7.3] Greens
  6%  [-4.7] FDP
  4% [+0.9] Left
  6% [+0.9] Others

Tie between CDU-FDP (45%) and SPD-Greens (45%).

Am I right when I say that CDU-FDP would still be favored in a tied situation, because of the electoral law that would give the CDU a lot of Überhangmandate ?

No. In Baden-Württemberg it gives Ausgleichsmadate. When the CDU get 10 Überhangmandate, the other parties get 10 mandates more.

[Franzl]

Baden-Württemberg will be a CDU-FDP win, IMO....if polling stays this close. Something of a built-in advantage. Can't explain why. Just a feeling.

[big bad fab]

Has Guttenberg's departure any measurable impact in opinion polls so far ?

[Franzl]

Has Guttenberg's departure any measurable impact in opinion polls so far ?

I'm not sure any new polls have even come out...

[DL]

I think I saw a brand new Forsa poll at the national level that had CDU support down 2%

[Tender Branson]

I think I saw a brand new Forsa poll at the national level that had CDU support down 2%

Yeah, the latest Forsa national poll looks like this:

34%  (-2) CDU/CSU
27% (+4) SPD
16%  (-2) Greens
10%  (nc) Left
  5%  (nc) FDP
  8%  (nc) Others

Forsa has notoriously underestimated the SPD recently compared with other pollsters, now they are in synch with these other pollsters again.

There's also a new Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state elections poll by Emnid:

34% [+3.8] SPD
29% [+0.2] CDU
17% [+0.2] Left
  6% [+2.6] Greens
  5%  [-4.6] FDP
  4%  [-3.3] NPD
  5% [+1.1] Others

Majority for SPD-Left and SPD-CDU of course.

Gov. Erwin Sellering (SPD) also holds a huge lead in the direct vote for Governor:

49% Sellering (SPD)
11% Caffier (CDU)
  9% Holter (Left)

[Tender Branson]

Today, 2 other Emnid polls were released:

Baden-Württemberg

38%  [-6.2] CDU
25%  [-0.2] SPD
21% [+9.3] Greens
  8%  [-2.7] FDP
  4% [+0.9] Left
  4%  [-1.1] Others

46% for Red-Green and 46% for CDU-FDP.

Rheinland-Pfalz

40%  [-5.6] SPD
34% [+1.2] CDU
11% [+6.4] Greens 
  5% [+2.5] Left
  5%  [-3.0] FDP
  5%  [-1.5] Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if the CDU will get the worst result in post-WW2 time in BW.

The historical low in the state was 36% in 1952.

[Tender Branson]

Guttenberg, who resigned recently, has been scheduled to campaign about 10 times for Gov. Mappus (CDU) in Baden-Württemberg before the election.

Guttenberg has now cancelled all stops in the state though.

http://www.schwaebische.de/region/wir-im-sueden/baden-wuerttemberg_artikel,-Mappus-Guttenbergs-Ruecktritt-belastet-Wahlkampf-nicht-_arid,5039534.html

Don't know if this helps or hurts Mappus' chances ...

[Tender Branson]

New Emnid poll shows a moderate fallout of the Guttenberg scandal:

33%  (-2) CDU/CSU
29% (+1) SPD
15%  (-1) Greens
  9%  (nc) Left
  7% (+1) FDP
  7% (+1) Others

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Emnid poll shows a moderate fallout of the Guttenberg scandal:

33%  (-2) CDU/CSU
29% (+1) SPD
15%  (-1) Greens
  9%  (nc) Left
  7% (+1) FDP
  7% (+1) Others

If there's fallout from Guttenberg it could very well be CDU voters who are pissed at Merkel because she couldn't hold Guttenberg in the cabinet.

[Tender Branson]

New Berlin poll:

[Franzl]

I'm sure I've mentioned before how much I hate East Berlin.